THE BUZZ: BUTTERFLY EFFECT — Americans today will decide on the next president of the United States. Their choice could help determine who leads California in two years. A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris would be a boon to those closest to her, especially if she finds herself in need of qualified allies to fill positions in the administration. It could also reshape the crowded field of Democratic contenders vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. "Here in California, it isn't going to be a shock or surprise if Kamala wins and there's a lot of upheaval," said Mike Trujillo, an LA-based Democratic consultant who is close to Antonio Villaraigosa, one of the 2026 candidates. "I can see Kamala tapping some close friends from California because she trusts them to do really important jobs." Villaraigosa, as with some of the other hopefuls, could benefit from a few of the frontrunners getting knocked out with an appointment in Washington. Behind the scenes, cogs are already turning as consultants and political watchers try to map out the implications of the respective administrations. Playbook spoke with some of them to get a sense of the potential outcomes on the minds of 2026 governor candidates as they watch votes come in tonight. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis — Thanks to her oodles of cash and statewide name ID, Kounalakis is considered a frontrunner for the next governor. But her credentials as a former ambassador to Hungary and strong personal ties to the VP also make her a good candidate for ascension in a Harris administration. Kounalakis, for her part, has signaled to her own aides and allies that she plans to remain in her job — and the next governor’s race. The Gavin-Kamala dynamic — Some close watchers speculate that if Harris really wanted to help out Kounalakis, she could persuade Newsom to accept a Cabinet position, immediately elevating Kounalakis to the governorship and smoothing her path in 2026. But that’s an unlikely scenario given Newsom’s preference to serve out the remainder of his term. There are few positions in a Harris administration he would consider, let alone be considered for, that are more appealing than running the globe’s fifth-largest economy. "I think that scenario is completely foolish and is not going to happen," one person close to the governor stressed to Playbook. But if it happened, Kounalakis would select her successor for lieutenant governor, scrambling a race that already includes several ambitious Democrats — Treasurer Fiona Ma, state Sen. Steven Bradford and former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs. An even more unlikely scenario is that if Harris loses, she may want to come back and run for governor in 2026, at which point she’d clear the field. Probably. POLITICO in May reported that Harris has joked about returning home to run for governor. Harris’ team shot it down on the record, and people who know her told our Christopher Cadelago that she’s loath to take a demotion (to be fair, it’s hard to trade Air Force 2 for a dreaded “C” boarding position on Southwest Airlines, where A-list expires after a year of inactivity). On the scale of predictable to crazy, it’s pretty out there. But hey, Richard Nixon tried it (and lost). Xavier Becerra — The Health and Human Services secretary and former California attorney general is not running for governor … yet. Despite his increasingly frequent trips to California (including one last week), a casual $1.5 million hanging out in a state committee and behind-the-scenes discussions about propping up a campaign, Becerra has deflected questions about his aspirations to lead his home state. If Donald Trump wins, Becerra is obviously without a job, leaving his schedule wide open for a campaign. And as the guy who proudly filed more than 100 lawsuits against Trump in his first term, Becerra has a clear message to bring home to Californians (even if his HHS tenure was a bit rocky). If Harris wins, she may want to pick her own cabinet, but those choices could also be constrained by a Republican majority in the Senate. If the GOP takes the upper chamber, they’d be almost certain to stall, if not completely block, new Harris appointees, making it that much harder for Becerra to justify leaving the administration. Rob Bonta — The attorney general is another will-he-won’t-he contender for 2026. Bonta was appointed to the gig by Newsom following Becerra’s departure for Washington and was easily elected to a full term in 2022, but he appears to be positioning himself for higher office. As we saw with Becerra, the role of California attorney general becomes much more prominent with Trump in office, and a second presidency would give Bonta a handy political foil for fundraising over the next two years. We’re not the only ones watching to see if Bonta jumps into the governor’s race. If he leaves the AG’s office, that would open up a lane for outgoing Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinbergto take his spot. Assemblymember Rick Zbur has made no (real) secret of his interest, and we’re betting that San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins wouldn’t pass on the opportunity to run. The rest — Barring a shakeup at the front of the pack — or one of the contenders taking what would in all probability be a lower-profile job in a Harris administration — the election isn’t likely to dramatically change the calculations of announced candidates like Toni Atkins, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa or Betty Yee. And even if there’s Harris-inspired movement, the governor’s field remains in flux. Outgoing Rep. Katie Porter, a top-polling Democrat in the state thanks to her 2024 primary for Senate, appears poised to jump in. (Bucolic as it is, nobody comes to Sacramento to have coffee with power players, as Playbook recently reported she did , for no reason.) But if Harris offered her something enticing — say, a chance to make moves inside the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — an agency created by her mentor, Elizabeth Warren, well, who knows? GOOD MORNING. Happy Election Day. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Watching the election in Sacramento. | 
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