Tuesday, November 5, 2024

The state races (re)shaping the energy sector

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation
Nov 05, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Arianna Skibell

Voters cast their ballots at Zion Chapel Church in southwest Detroit.

Voters cast their ballots today at Zion Chapel Church in southwest Detroit. | Emily Rose Bennett for POLITICO

Happy Election Day to all who celebrate. And to the rest of you, well, good luck.

While the victor of this year’s presidential race — whether that be Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump — will set the nation’s overarching energy agenda, states hold significant power to shape the sector.

From Arizona to New Hampshire, state elections will determine control of legislative chambers and key regulatory bodies that can make or break a shift to clean power.

POLITICO’s E&E News reporters Francisco "A.J." Camacho, Shelby Webb and Jeffrey Tomich break down the state races to watch tonight if you’re an energy nerd.

Here’s a taste of what’s at stake:

Tapping into Arizona’s sun
Arizona Democrats see an opportunity this year to take over both the state Legislature and the five-member utility regulatory commission — allowing them to propel the state toward a clean energy transition.

Despite Arizona being the sunniest state in the nation, only 10 percent of its electricity was provided by solar last year. Republican commissioners rolled back clean energy and energy efficiency standards in February.

Democrats need to pick up just two seats in each chamber to flip the Legislature. Three Republican-held posts are up for reelection on the Arizona Corporation Commission; Democrats need to win two to control the panel.

Pennsylvania’s cap and trade
Democrats in this year’s largest battleground state are working to retain their narrow control of the House and win over the Senate. Control of the Legislature would allow lawmakers to usher in Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s stalled cap-and-trade program, which could have massive ramifications for the nation’s natural gas sector.

Shapiro’s program would charge utilities for producing carbon pollution and redistribute 70 percent of that revenue to provide discounts on Pennsylvanians’ electric bills. The remainder would fund environmental cleanups and new jobs. The program could be consequential as Pennsylvania is the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas. Texas is first.

A Democratic takeover could also green-light new requirements Shapiro floated to green the state’s energy portfolio. A Republican win would be blunted by the governor’s veto power.

Texas oil and gas 
A Democratic challenger is attempting to wrest control of the state’s top oil and gas regulatory body from Republican incumbent Christi Craddick, whose family earned $10 million in oil and gas rights in 2022.

Katherine Culbert’s top priorities include environmental protection, safety, holding oil and gas companies accountable for violations and cracking down on corporate influence and campaign donations.

Her chances of winning the top spot on the (misleadingly named) Texas Railroad Commission appear dim. Culbert has raised a paltry $19,000 compared with the $10 million Craddick has raked in, largely from the oil and gas industry.

For the full rundown on the climate and energy issues playing out in all eight state races, check out A.J., Shelby and Jeff’s breakdown.

 

It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host,  Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net.

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Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Josh Siegel breaks down the massive climate stakes of the 2024 elections. Which party wins the White House and controls Congress could determine whether the United States accelerates efforts to fight climate change or veers off course.

Power Centers

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has high stakes for U.S. efforts to address climate change. | AP

This presidential transition could get rocky
Several scenarios could arise to make this presidential transition — the massive undertaking where control of the entire executive branch changes hands — particularly complicated or contentious.

For starters, a contested outcome could mean dueling transition teams enter agencies at the same time. Robin Bravender and Kevin Bogardus break down three potential scenarios.

The climate enigma of Hakeem Jeffries
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries often talks broadly about addressing climate change with “the fierce urgency of now,” but the Brooklyn Democrat has been slower to follow members of his party to the left on climate politics, consistently rejecting the Green New Deal, writes Emma Dumain.

His tone, and stance, could change if he takes the speaker’s gavel after this week’s elections — at least climate activists hope it will.

EU chief to skip UN climate talks
The European Union’s top official Ursula von der Leyen, who has styled herself as a global climate leader, is joining a growing list of major polluting governments' leaders planning to ditch this year’s COP29 conference, writes Karl Mathiesen.

A spokesperson said von der Leyen's planned absence is due to a scheduling conflict. She joins France's Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, the United States’ Joe Biden, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in missing the conference.

In Other News

Off to the races: While big utility PACs donated far more to GOP state and congressional candidates this year, some power companies hedged their bets with donations to Democrats.

Real estate advice: Everyone is ignoring these investors’ warnings on climate risk. You shouldn’t.

Subscriber Zone

A showcase of some of our best subscriber content.

A gas-lit flame burns on a natural gas stove.

A gas-lit flame burns on a natural gas stove. | Richard Vogel/AP

Ballot initiatives in three states could have significant implications for the oil and gas industry, affecting natural gas use, carbon capture technology and coastal restoration.

There’s one guaranteed victor in Tuesday’s United States election: Europe’s addiction to American fossil fuels.

Many red states and House districts could benefit from EPA's $27 billion green bank, which is mandated to prioritize investment in low-income and underserved communities.

That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.

 

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Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell

 

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