| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard | | Presented by |  | | | |  Florida voters are headed to the polls today. | Octavio Jones/Getty Images | Good morning and happy Election Day. Tune in to POLITICO to follow the results. There’s plenty of evidence that former President Donald Trump will win Florida for a third time today, even as nationally the presidential race remains in a dead heat. How large Trump’s victory is here, as well as the results down ballot, will be telling as to how red Florida has become following the 2022 Republican red wave in the state that came after many Democratic voters failed to show up. As Playbook reported Monday, one of biggest fights in the Legislature is over the supermajority in the House. ( Get caught up here on the key races.) Today, Playbook is presenting more top races to watch and other interesting dynamics to be looking out for: Republican Sen. Rick Scott v. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: While the Democratic challenger consistently out-fundraised Scott, he’s the one with the edge to win reelection at a time when Democrats are desperately hoping to keep a slim Senate majority. Scott, a former two-term governor, didn't agree to any debates, which deprived lesser-known Mucarsel-Powell of the publicity that would have come with it. The 2024 cycle marks the least amount of money Scott, who is one of the richest members of Congress, has ever spent on his political aspirations, and — if he wins today — his next goal is to run for GOP leader. ( Read POLITICO’s latest on the contest, including how national Democrats failed to come through with a cash infusion into the race.) Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna v. Whitney Fox: The Congressional District 13 race is the only one in Florida that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured extra attention and cash into. Fox is running a centrist campaign against Luna, who’s been a key surrogate for Trump in swing states. Gov. Ron DeSantis v. the amendments: The governor isn’t on the ballot this cycle, but he's injected himself into the fight against referendums on pot and abortion . Should both be defeated, DeSantis would carry a mandate with him into the next session after showing that voters side with his vision for Florida. But Democrats and other opponents could view a loss as a sign that his influence is taking a hit as the term-limited governor enters his lame duck era. The future of school board races: These races will offer another key signal about DeSantis’ influence, this time with how he has worked to shape education in the state, as POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury details. The governor endorsed 11 school board candidates who lost in August, but has a chance to make up ground during the general election. Voters will also decide through a ballot amendment whether to make Florida school board races partisan, something DeSantis and his party support. Republican state Sen. Corey Simon v. Democrat Daryl Parks: Senate District 3 is the only seat in the upper chamber that Democrats view as flippable. Simon, a former professional football player for the Philadelphia Eagles whom DeSantis later appointed CEO of Volunteer Florida, won the seat two years ago during Florida’s red wave after a century of Democratic control. Senate President-designate Ben Albritton says the party will do “whatever it takes ” financially to keep Simon in office, while Democrats are hopeful that a higher-turnout cycle will yield victory for them. Transgender representation: Three transgender candidates — all Democrats — are running for the statehouse at a time when the GOP-supermajority Legislature passed restrictions on bathroom use and a ban on receiving gender-affirming care through telehealth . The candidates include: Ashley Brundage in state House District 65, Nathan Bruemmer in state House District 61 and Vance Ahrens in state Senate District 19. Florida Democrats view the first two seats as flippable but GOP state Rep. Randy Fine has a Trump endorsement in SD-19, a solidly red district. Places where Republicans are spending big: Republicans appear to be spending in at least three state House districts that are considered safer for Democrats, in an effort to pressure them to counter with their own resources to defend incumbents. They include races for Democratic state Reps. Allison Tant in District 9, Katherine Waldron in District 93 and Lindsay Cross in District 60. Trump’s Miami-Dade showing: In 2022, DeSantis became the first Republican in decades to win Miami-Dade. It’s still an open question whether Trump can do the same after improving his margins there between 2016 and 2020. Should he win, he may carry other races in the county with him all the way down ballot, including his endorsements for sheriff and supervisor of elections. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers For stepping up during Hurricanes Milton and Helene by helping thousands of Floridians get to shelters and support centers. Your efforts helped keep our communities safe. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | |  Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. on July 14, 2024. | Saul Martinez/Getty Images | WHERE'S THE PARTY? Former President Donald Trump’s Election Night watch party will be hosted at the Palm Beach County Convention Center, and he'll have a smaller gatherings at Mar-a-Lago earlier in the night with friends, donors and club members … CAMPAIGN EVENT GUEST LIST: Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power; RPOF Executive Director Bill Helmich; Moms for Liberty leader Tiffany Justice; Carlos Trujillo, head of Latinos for Trump, and his wife Carmen Trujillo; Katie Wiles; state Sen. Joe Gruters (R-Sarasota) and Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Cabrera. — Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) will ring in the results in Bonita Springs after holding “Get Out the Vote” events in Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa. Among Scott’s evening guests: Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis … Senate Democratic candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will be in Miami … Democratic congressional candidate Whitney Fox will be in Dunedin … GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna will be in Clearwater … Democratic candidate James Reyes for Miami-Dade Sheriff is having his event at Bay 13 in Coral Gables, with Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava set to attend … “Yes on 4” is doing its event in St. Petersburg … “No on 4” is hosting a joint watch party with the Liberty Counsel in Orlando … The Florida Women’s Freedom Coalition, a bipartisan group supporting Amendment 4, is hosting its election watch party at Ball & Chain in Little Havana. — House of Rock — the band founded by members of the Florida state House — will be performing in Fort Lauderdale to kick off Election Night. Tonight features Republican state Reps. Taylor Yarkosky, Chip LaMarka and Evan Rudman, the son of GOP Rep. Joel Rudman. Chloe Davis, legislative aide to Yarkosky, will be on vocals. (Here’s the setlist.) — Rep. Joel Rudman will be hosting his own campaign event across the state at the Imogene Theatre in Milton, featuring Chicago’s Buddy Rich Big Band Machine. “We only play for winners,” drummer Gregg Potter told Playbook. The event will have large-screen TVs that’ll show the voting results throughout the night, and has 1,500 balloons ready to be dropped from the ceiling. Attending is Republican Don Gaetz, former president of the Florida Senate who’s expected to get elected to the state Senate again tonight. The group will also play a recorded message from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Rudman will get up on stage for a 20-minute jam session. “The next political party we want to play is Mr. Trump’s inauguration,” said the band’s singer, Cathy Rich.
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Imogene Theatre in Milton, Florida | Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Fla.) | TODAY — Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power and RPOF Executive Director Bill Helmich are visiting election sites in Kendall, Hialeah, Doral with Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, Miami-Dade GOP Chair and state Rep. Alex Rizo, Florida state House Speaker Designate Danny Perez, Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Hialeah Mayor Steve Bovo, and Republican candidate for Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz. THE MONEY GAME — During the 2020 election, the presidential cycle brought $240 million in TV ad spending in Florida, a notoriously expensive state to advertise in. This year, despite Democrats’ insistence that Florida was “in play,” the ad buy tells a different story: Final tallies from AdImpact show TV ad spending tied to the presidential race for the campaigns and outside groups was just $1.83 million, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign spending just over $210,000 since early October. The causes that elicited far greater spending were tied to amendments on marijuana legalization and abortion rights. The group pushing for legalization, Smart & Safe Florida, spent almost $71.5 million on ads while the opposing “Vote No on 3” side spent under $8 million. The Republican Party of Florida spent $16.2 million urging voters to select “no” on the ballot. Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group that’s pushing for Amendment 4 to pass, which would make abortion broadly legal, spent $12.7 million on TV ads while the Florida Democratic Party kicked in nearly $22 million. The Republican Party of Florida spent just over $26 million urging voters to select “no” on Amendment 4. — Gary Fineout contributed reporting. DISMISSED — “Florida election police quashes fraud complaints against DeSantis officials,” reports Douglas Soule of USA Today Network-Florida . “Florida's statewide election police has shut down two elections fraud complaints filed against officials of Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration. The complaints were against Jason Weida, secretary of the Agency for Health Care Administration, and Erik Dellenback, the Faith and Community-Based Liaison to the governor, for their opposition to this year's abortion-access ballot initiative. Andrew Darlington, director of the Florida Office of Election Crimes and Security, said they were exempt from a law preventing public officials from using their official authority to interfere with an election.”
| | | | A message from Uber:   | | | | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | DEAL REACHED — “Parkland survivor agrees to share rights to gunman’s name with other victims’ families,” reports Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun Sentinel . “Parkland mass shooting survivor Anthony Borges has agreed to share the rights to the name of the man who tried to kill him, ending a legal standoff with other families shattered by the 2018 tragedy at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School." — “‘Oath of fealty’: How the U. of Florida forced faculty cooperation with a GOP-backed civics center,” by Garrett Shanley of the Chronicle of Higher Education.
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | RAFAEL FORECAST — “A hurricane could enter the Gulf of Mexico as soon as Wednesday, after striking western Cuba and the Cayman Islands,” reports the Miami Herald’s Alex Harris. “The outer bands could sweep the Florida Keys and send some rain over the peninsula later in the week but the initial forecast track kept the core of the still-developing system far from a Florida Gulf Coast still cleaning up from Hurricanes Helene and Milton” — “Florida insurance claims from Hurricanes Helene and Milton near $5B,” reports Florida Politics’ Drew Dixon.
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | TRUMP TRANSITION — “Florida surgeon general who warned against vaccines may lead HHS under Trump,” reports The Washington Post’s Dan Diamond, Michael Scherer and Lauren Weber . “Florida’s top health official, whose tenure has been marked by his warnings against vaccines, threats to TV stations for running abortion ads and frequent clashes with public health experts, has emerged as a candidate to run the Department of Health and Human Services in a potential Trump administration, according to two people familiar with the process. Joseph A. Ladapo is on a list of HHS secretary candidates being assembled by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been charged with helping select staff for the nation’s health and food agencies if Donald Trump wins office.”
| | | | A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers
In the face of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, Uber drivers gave Floridians rides to shelters and support centers. We thank the thousands of Uber drivers who went above and beyond, ensuring that during a time of crisis, no one was left behind. Your dedication made a difference when it mattered most. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | | | TRANSITION TIME | | — Josh Gregory will be press secretary for Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). He previously was an associate at Penta Group. — The Florida Hospital Association has several staff moves. Nicole Pelligrino , based out of Tampa, has joined as the vice president of policy and education. She was formerly a senior researcher with the Florida Perinatal Quality Collaborative. Juliet Hauser is associate vice president of communications. She was previously director of communications. Brea Gelin is vice president of hospital finance and previously worked in Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office of policy and budget, as policy coordinator within the health and human services unit.
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — Gov. Ron DeSantis is speaking at the University of Notre Dame on Friday. — “Former Sen. Loranne Ausley recovering from neck surgery after triathlon accident,” reports the Florida Phoenix. BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Frederica Wilson … David Johnson, Republican political consultant. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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