THE REPUBLICANS WHO COULD OPPOSE JOHNSON’S SPENDING PLAN Speaker Mike Johnson embraced a conservative-favored spending plan in a private call with GOP lawmakers today. It’s almost certainly doomed in the Senate — and it might not even pass the House. Johnson’s plan would punt the shutdown deadline into March, after a new president and Congress are in power, and includes a proposal that would require proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in federal elections, known as the SAVE Act. The potential problems come from two sides of the Republican conference. The House GOP needs near-unanimity to pass it, since Democratic support will be slim to none. While shutdown chances are slim, not being able to get the spending plan through the House would be another knock on Republican leadership, just weeks before an election. On one side, centrists could pose an issue, since many don’t want even a whisper of a government shutdown so close to an election. Some of them are already questioning why Republicans should go through the motions on a proposal that they know the Senate will reject (more on that below). Then there’s a conservative faction of lawmakers who despise temporary funding patches, known as continuing resolutions or CRs, and have indicated they may not vote for this one even if it includes their preferred voting rider. Let’s dial into those concerns, and how significant they’ll be as House leaders look to take up the proposal next week: Centrist concerns: Some centrists are worried that Johnson’s plan to pass a six-month short-term spending bill — with the GOP’s SAVE Act attached — could create a stalemate with the Democratic-run Senate. While Republicans generally don’t have an issue with the legislation itself, they are scared it will muddy the process for keeping the government running. Still, these centrists may not ultimately be a huge problem for leadership. Even those with concerns indicated they would still vote for the conservative-favored proposal, though they view a so-called clean CR until December as an inevitable endgame. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who is in a competitive district, warned in the GOP call today that a shutdown could mean almost a dozen vulnerable members lose their attempts at reelection. But we caught up with LaLota after that call, and he toned down his concerns a bit and said he’d vote for the bill. “Every member, Republican or Democrat, House or Senate, should want to both keep the government open and ensure only US Citizens vote in our elections. I’ll vote for a bill that does both and our democracy will be stronger if Senate Democrats follow House Republicans’ lead on the coupling of these two important initiatives,” he said. Others are more definitively shrugging off concerns. “I think it is important to remind the American people that Democrats, even when given an opportunity to help make our nation more secure ... would vote against it,” said one Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. This member also projected confidence that “a deal will be made and a shutdown avoided.” Still, others say the votes just aren’t there for the spending proposal. “Same movie, different actors. The Speaker would have real negotiating leverage if the votes existed for that in conference. Unfortunately, the probability of that happening is roughly the same as Joe Biden being President on opening day of next year’s MLB season,” said another Republican, granted anonymity to speak frankly. Anti-CR conservative concerns: There is a group of conservatives who will, as a general rule, oppose any short-term spending bills. They see it as a protest against a broken spending and appropriations process, arguing Congress has a responsibility to pass spending bills on time rather than kick the can down the road. That was a significant problem for ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Republicans believe there’s still members who will oppose any CR — though they aren’t sure about the exact number. A Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) spokesperson told us earlier today that the retiring Republican “has always been and continues to be against any form of a CR.” Other conservatives who belong to this group haven’t been so definitive, yet. A spokesperson for Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) told us that the Tennessean is a “likely yes but will need to see all the details.” A spokesperson for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) told us last week that he was taking the matter under advisement, while Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) indicated last week that he would need to look at the proposal. Spokespeople for Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) didn’t respond to requests for comment about whether they would support a CR with the SAVE Act attached, but Crane previously indicated he believed the SAVE Act should be included. — Olivia Beavers with an assist from Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Sept. 4, where we’re wondering if notorious con artist Anna Delvey’s reported upcoming stint on Dancing with the Stars has piqued ex-Rep. George Santos’ interest. HOW JOHNSON’S PLAN PLAYS IN THE SENATE It’s not just Senate Democratic appropriators writing off House GOP plans to link stopgap spending with a proof-of-citizenship voting bill — a border swing-state Democrat is dunking on it, too. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) dubbed the bill, which would require proof of citizenship when registering to vote and calls for purging voter rolls of noncitizens: “A solution, looking for a problem.” It’s already illegal for noncitizens to vote in elections. “There is no evidence that undocumented migrants vote,” Kelly told reporters this week. “It’s hard enough to get citizens to vote.” Kelly, who supports stronger border security, is one of dozens of Democrats from battleground states and districts who won’t support the measure if it comes to the Senate floor. That’s a longshot possibility anyway, but speaks to the low pressure Democrats would feel to move the GOP bill. Only five House Democrats – Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Henry Cuellar (Texas), Don Davis (N.C.), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — supported the measure when it came for a vote in the House earlier this year. It’s unclear if even they would still back it once it’s attached to a spending bill. Most Republicans and Democrats acknowledge they’ll need a short-term patch that keeps spending levels steady to avert the shutdown in time. But that doesn’t mean the Senate will feel the need to take up the House GOP proposal. “That likely would not be supported in the Senate with 60 votes,” said Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), a retiring member who said he plans to support the House Republican bill. He predicted that “ultimately a CR without [the SAVE Act] attached will be what passes.” — Katherine Tully-McManus with an assist from Jordain Carney and Daniella Diaz SCOOP: HOUSE GOP’S DATA BROKER ASK A group of House Republicans is reviving a dormant fight over data broker restrictions, demanding that the White House take action to curb the government’s reliance on the industry. Nine Republicans — led by Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Warren Davidson (Ohio) — sent a letter on Wednesday to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris pushing them to endorse legislation that would limit the government’s ability to purchase consumer information from data brokers, according to a copy of the letter obtained exclusively by POLITICO. Some background: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a framework earlier this year outlining when intelligence agencies can and cannot purchase such data, acknowledging that they do use commercially available information as part of their intelligence gathering. “We … demand your endorsement of legislative solutions limiting government purchases from data brokers and halting the government's purchase of hacked data. These payments to data brokers amount to the government’s ongoing subsidization of the data broker industry,” the GOP lawmakers wrote. It comes after a hacking group claimed to have stolen records, including Social Security numbers and other personal data, of 2.9 billion people. In addition to wanting Biden and Harris to endorse their legislation, GOP lawmakers are also asking the administration to provide details about the alleged hack, including how it occurred, who is responsible and how data brokers will be held accountable. Reminder: Biggs and Davidson were part of a bipartisan coalition in the House that tried to get new data broker restrictions included in legislation that reauthorized a controversial surveillance program, known as Section 702, earlier this year. But they ultimately failed after facing significant pushback, including from the intelligence community and members of the House Intelligence Committee. — Jordain Carney
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