| | | | |  | | By Bethany Irvine | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
It’s a dead heat in Georgia and Pennsylvania between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | POLLING BONANZA — CNN is out with new head-to-head polling numbers in six key battleground states. The gist: KAMALA HARRIS has a narrow but persistent lead over DONALD TRUMP, but it’s a dead heat in Georgia and Pennsylvania — the two electoral vote-rich states that “are central to each candidate’s path to the White House,” as CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu write. The numbers:
- Arizona: Harris 44%, Trump 49%
- Georgia: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
- Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
- Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 47%, Trump 47%
- Wisconsin: Harris 50%, Trump 44%
A reminder: President JOE BIDEN swept all six of these states in 2020, though he squeaked by in both Arizona and Georgia by roughly 11,000 votes each. A caveat: “Both Georgia and Pennsylvania remain thoroughly up for grabs, according to the polls, with tight margins overall and double-digit shares of likely voters — 12% in Georgia and 16% in Pennsylvania — saying they haven’t yet decided on a candidate, or that they might change their minds,” per CNN. BIG-PICTURE READ — “As Groups Have Shifted, Has It Become a ‘Normal’ Election?,” by NYT’s Nate Cohn GEN Z VIBE CHECK — In other new numbers out today, a poll of Gen Z voters by NBC News finds that 50 percent of registered voters between ages 18 and 29 plan to back Harris, while 34 percent say they will support Trump, NBC News’ Stephanie Perry and Marc Trussler report. Among young voters who say they’re almost certain to cast a ballot, Harris’ support rises to 60 percent — a figure “in line with the 60% of 18- to 29-year-olds won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election against Trump,” but “It’s starkly different than Biden’s results in some 2024 polls before he dropped out of the race.” OH, BROTHER — JEFF WALZ, the older brother of Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, sparked delight in MAGA world over comments he made on Facebook suggesting that he supports Trump’s campaign and has reservations about his sibling: “The stories I could tell. Not the type of character you want making decisions about your future,” the elder Walz wrote in one post. Now, one such story has come to light after NewsNation’s Rich McHugh called up Jeff Walz — and the result is … a dud. “I'll give you one example,” Jeff Walz said. “My little brother, when we were younger, we would go on family trips in a station wagon. And the thing was, nobody wanted to sit with him, because he had car sickness and would always throw up on us, that sort of thing.” No word yet on how many votes this will flip in the “blue wall” states. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at birvine@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: TRACKING THE SENIOR VOTE — Protecting Medicare tops the list in this election, according to a new bipartisan poll. Today, that means Medicare Advantage.
Medicare Advantage represents over half of the Medicare program, serving more than 33 million seniors. Seniors choose Medicare Advantage for affordable health care with better outcomes.
That’s why a supermajority of older voters agrees: Washington must keep health care affordable for seniors by standing up for Medicare Advantage. Read the results. | | | HAPPENING SOON — Harris is set to address her goals to expand tax incentives for small businesses,at a campaign event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire in just a few hours, AP’s Will Weissert previews: “The small business plan Harris is presenting has lots that the business community would like. But that contrasts another proposal Harris unveiled last month, where she promised to help fight inflation by working to combat ‘price gouging.’”
| | 6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  The DOJ is expected to announce it is launching legal action against the covert Russian operation | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | 1. FROM RUSSIA, WITH MALICE: The White House is planning to officially accuse the Kremlin of meddling in the 2024 election “by using Kremlin-run media and other online platforms to target US voters with disinformation,” CNN’s Sean Lyngaas, Evan Perez, Kylie Atwood and Zachary Cohen report. The DOJ is expected to announce it is launching legal action against the covert Russian operation and the White House will openly denounce the involvement in a series of moves later today: “RT, the Russian state media network, is a major focus of the US announcement, the sources said. US officials see the Russian outlet as a key piece of Kremlin propaganda efforts. … Taken together, the actions would be the Biden administration’s most significant public response yet to alleged Russian influence operations targeting American voters.” 2. WAR IN UKRAINE: The uncertainty in Ukraine continues following Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA’s resignation, WaPo’s Siobhán O'Grady reports from Kyiv. President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY described the move as a way to infuse “new energy” into Kyiv’s ongoing war against Russia, and in a presser this morning, maintained that Kuleba’s resignation, along with those of several other senior officials, will support the “strengthening our state in various directions.” The reshuffling of Zelenskyy’s cabinet comes as Russia continues its onslaught, launching a devastating missile strike on a military academy in the eastern city of Povolta that killed 50 people, per the AP. 3. WHEN CHURCH MEETS STATE: “Republicans pushing Christianity into public schools are hitting resistance — even in red states,” by Andrew Atterbury and Juan Perez Jr.: “Florida now allows chaplains in public schools. Oklahoma and Texas are looking to infuse Bible lessons into curricula. And Louisiana wants to set up Ten Commandments displays in classrooms. … Republican officials including Louisiana Gov. JEFF LANDRY, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and Oklahoma state school Superintendent RYAN WALTERS are welcoming legal challenges, defending their policies and demanding local schools fall in line. … But a diverse range of opponents — including local school officials, civil rights organizations and the Satanic Temple — hope to stymie these initiatives.”
| | | | 4. NEXT IN LINE: WSJ’s John McCormick is out with a profile of Minnesota Lt. Gov. PEGGY FLANAGAN, who’d become governor if Tim Walz gets elected vice president in November. Some Democrats describe Flanagan as a “progressive whisperer” to Walz ever since they met nearly two decades ago at Camp Wellstone in St. Paul. “The potential of a Flanagan governorship worries some Republicans more than Walz,” McCormick writes. AK KAMARA, an RNC member from the state, put it like this: “Tim Walz tried to be somewhat reserved with the culture wars. Peggy Flanagan is just out there with it.” 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: “How Immigration Remade the U.S. Labor Force,” by WSJ’s Paul Kiernan: “Immigration has lifted U.S. population growth to almost 1.2% a year, the highest since the early 1990s. Without it, the U.S. population would be growing 0.2% a year because of declining birthrates and would begin shrinking around 2040, the CBO projects. … There’s much that we don’t know with precision about this population. … But information does trickle in, via a monthly Census Bureau … They paint a picture of an overwhelmingly Spanish-speaking cohort that is younger, less-educated, and more available to work than the native U.S. population.” 6. HALF THE BATTLE: A new analysis of electoral races across the U.S. illustrates a growing problem: uncontested races for partisan offices, NYT’s Michael Wines reports. “[T]hough defending democracy was a dominant theme of the Democratic National Convention last month, in the 2022 midterms, Democrats failed to field a single candidate for fully half of all partisan offices — well over three times the rate of Republican no-shows,” Wines writes. Scholars say the lack of competition limits choices, results in one-sided policies and dampens voter turnout, while “politicians elected without opposition cast fewer votes and introduce less legislation.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ginni Thomas reportedly privately supported a Supreme Court reform group. Lori Chavez-DeRemer narrowly trails Janelle Bynum in her Oregon House race. Michigan has an intense new “I voted” sticker design. MEDIA MOVES — Alana Anyse is now senior producer for “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.” She was previously a special events and White House producer for CBS News’ Washington bureau. … Rachel White is now executive director of The Associated Press Foundation for Journalism. She previously was EVP of philanthropy and business development at The Guardian. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sarah Amick is now special counsel in Wiley Rein’s environment and product regulation group. She previously was SVP and senior counsel at the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association. TRANSITIONS — Justin McCarthy is now a partner in DGA Group’s U.S. government relations practice. He most recently was a senior adviser at Akin, and is a Pfizer and Bush White House alum. … Kaitlyn Montán is now director of legislative affairs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She previously was director for congressional and intergovernmental affairs at the Council on Environmental Quality. … Chris Paulitz is joining Disability Specialists as an executive. He previously was head of strategic initiatives at the Financial Services Institute. … … Amazon Web Services has added Susan Buikema-Miller as head of public sector comms and Sydney Erhardt as PR specialist for U.S. public sector. Buikema-Miller most recently was director of public affairs for government affairs at Lockheed Martin, and is a CIA and ODNI alum. Erhardt most recently was a press officer at the FBI. … Tamar Epps is now a government affairs senior associate at the National Head Start Association. She previously was a legislative aide for Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.). … Adam Myers is rejoining Ervin Graves Strategy Group as an associate in its government affairs practice. He recently graduated law school and is a Mike Braun alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Stephanie Murray, national politics reporter at The Arizona Republic and a POLITICO alum, and Eric Farmer, incoming founding account executive at Plot, got married on Sunday at Glen Magna Farms in Danvers, Massachusetts. The couple met ten years ago at a fire in her parents’ backyard. Eric had just moved from Quebec for the summer to play hockey. The couple eloped in Las Vegas in August 2022. Pic ... Another pic SPOTTED: Lisa Kashinsky, Shannon Young and Sean Cotter. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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