| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is one week from today and the main polling aggregators all show Harris with a lead. | OFF EMBARGO — The KAMALA HARRIS campaign just released “Focused,” which is part of a $370 million buy running through Election Day. It focuses on the kind of bread and butter economic issues that a lot of outside JOE BIDEN critics were long urging the incumbent to address. (No surprise since some of those critics are now in charge of the Harris campaign.) The thrust of the ad is contrasting DONALD TRUMP’s tax cuts with two of Harris’s recent proposals: “mak[ing] groceries more affordable by cracking down on price gouging” and “cut[ting] housing costs by taking on corporate speculators.” Watch the ad 63 DAYS TO GO — Election Day is nine weeks from today. Absentee ballots will start getting mailed out in North Carolina on Friday. Early voting starts in Pennsylvania on Sept. 16. The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is one week from today. The main polling aggregators all show Harris with a lead:
Eli Stokols and Alex Isenstadt break down the state of the race and give the momentum advantage to Harris, who is leading in the polls, in fundraising, and perhaps most crucially, in measures of enthusiasm. Gallup last week recorded a 14-point advantage for Democrats when they measured which party’s voters are more enthusiastic about voting. Republicans led by 4 points on that question in March, when Biden was still the nominee. DAVID PLOUFFE, who ran BARACK OBAMA’s two campaigns for president put his finger on perhaps the single biggest difference between the candidacies of Biden and Harris: “Of course people get motivated about voting against somebody. But when they’re as motivated or more motivated about voting for somebody, there’s magic there.” Trump remains stuck where he has been for weeks: with no killer attack on Harris that has crystalized, no signs of a rebound in the polls, and public events where he still talks a lot about Biden, who has not been his opponent for more than six weeks. Democrats remain giddy about the length of the Harris honeymoon: — More Plouffe: “She’s the one with room to grow,” Plouffe said. “The Trump of ‘16, voters wanted to know more about him. Now, when Trump goes out there and campaigns and does interviews, it’s questionable how helpful it is. With Harris, it’s very helpful. We have a market of voters out there who want to know more about her.” — DONNA BRAZILE: “What happens with a movement is they don’t wait for the campaign high command to send them buttons and posters — they do it themselves. They don’t wait for the campaign to organize rallies — they do it themselves. The vice president has a movement behind her and can use it to her advantage.” The Trump campaign and its allies are stuck making predictions about how the race will eventually turn around. “Kamala’s honeymoon is over, and we plan to provide her with the worst September she’s ever had,” said DAVE CARNEY, the longtime Republican strategist and senior adviser to the Preserve America super PAC. “The second phase of our advertising will make her socialist intentions abundantly clear to every voter she’s trying to dupe.” “Trump campaign senior adviser CHRIS LaCIVITA described Harris as the ‘incumbent’ in the race, reflecting the campaign’s effort to tether the vice president to Biden,” Eli and Alex write. “In her TV interview last week, he said, Harris ‘defended her and Biden’s handling of the worst economic conditions in a generation … owning all of them.’ “‘She owns the policy decisions, and now she owns the political path,’ he said. ‘Sixty-five days is an eternity in politics … too long for American voters not to sniff out her weak character and dangerously liberal view of America.’” Barring events, there’s not a whole lot on the calendar for the coming week that seems likely to shift the basic dynamics of the race. Harris will head to New Hampshire tomorrow before making her second trip of the week to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Trump has nothing publicly scheduled until a Saturday rally in central Wisconsin. The ABC debate next Tuesday is shaping up as the decisive moment for both candidates to try to break the race open. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance: TRACKING THE SENIOR VOTE — Protecting Medicare tops the list in this election, according to a new bipartisan poll. Today, that means Medicare Advantage.
Medicare Advantage represents over half of the Medicare program, serving more than 33 million seniors. Seniors choose Medicare Advantage for affordable health care with better outcomes.
That’s why a supermajority of older voters agrees: Washington must keep health care affordable for seniors by standing up for Medicare Advantage. Read the results. | | | MORE FROM THE CLOSET — “Vance Championed 2017 Report on Families From Architects of Project 2025,” by NYT’s Lisa Lerer: “Years before he became the Republican vice-presidential nominee, JD VANCE endorsed a little-noticed 2017 report by the Heritage Foundation that proposed a sweeping conservative agenda to restrict sexual and reproductive freedoms and remake American families.” DEPT. OF UNSOLICITED ADVICE — “Three Things Kamala Harris Must Do to Win,” by James Carville in NYT: “Help Mr. Trump hurt himself in the debate(s) … Break from President Biden on policy … Display a clear growth mind-set from the 2020 Democratic primaries.”
| | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO will appear before the House Oversight pandemic select subcommittee Sept. 10 to testify about nursing home deaths in his state during Covid. That’s according to a memo from the subcommittee’s Democratic staff, obtained by Playbook, in which Dems warn that Republicans may try to draw a comparison to Walz’s pandemic stewardship in Minnesota, as some conservative media outlets have done. “In anticipation of Select Subcommittee Republicans echoing these claims during the upcoming hearing, we evaluated the merit of these allegations and determined that they are inaccurate,” the Dems write. The GOP majority declined to comment. At the White House Biden will speak at 2 p.m. to launch the Investing in America content series. Harris will have internal staff meetings and briefings.
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Seniors can’t afford policies that make their health care more expensive. They are counting on Washington to protect Medicare Advantage. Learn more. | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS
|  GOP campaign leaders, including Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), are concerned that the party needs significantly more money to catch up to Democrats’ fundraising lead. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | CASH DASH — GOP alarm bells are sounding for House and Senate Republicans’ cash disadvantage heading into the election’s final stretch, Ally Mutnick reports this morning. The party’s campaign leaders have warned that they need significantly more money to catch up to Democrats’ fundraising lead — especially as money has poured in from enthusiastic Dems after Harris swapped in for Biden. “Panic is starting to set in,” Ally reports, as Democrats swamp the airwaves, and Republicans say this is the last chance to make it up before it’s too late. “Unless something changes drastically,” NRSC Executive Director JASON THIELMAN says bluntly, “we will lose winnable seats.” Though outside super PACs are making up some of the difference, Republican campaigns themselves get ad space for far cheaper. Congressional Leadership Fund President DAN CONSTON said at a retreat last month that he needed $35 million more. GOP leaders see the next few weeks as the key period to reverse their fortunes — or else they may have diminished hopes of going on offense in House races and winning Senate races beyond the lowest-hanging fruit in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. More top reads:
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate DAVE McCORMICK is going up with a major $2.2 million ad buy over the next 10 days, hitting Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY over fentanyl and the border. The spots, which will run statewide on TV and digital, feature Blair County Sheriff JIM OTT, whose son died from fentanyl: “We can’t bring back the people we’ve lost, but we can get rid of the weak politicians — like Bob Casey — who let it happen.” Watch the TV ad
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Republican State Leadership Committee is announcing today that it has pumped $22 million into the contests for state legislative chambers, along with its affiliated groups. That brings the total pre-Labor-Day investment this cycle to $34 million, with a particular focus on absentee/early voting and data programs. Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among the states it’s targeting most. The full press release
- Building up Walz: In two districts to which Walz has ties — Democratic Rep. ANGIE CRAIG’s Minnesota seat and GOP Rep. DON BACON’s Nebraska seat — Democrats are hoping his presence on the ticket will give his party a boost, CBS’ Scott MacFarlane reports.
2024 WATCH HOW IT HAPPENED — The surprising alliance between ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and Trump had its roots in the early hours after Trump was nearly assassinated, when entrepreneur and Kennedy adviser CALLEY MEANS encouraged Kennedy to think about unity with Trump, NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman report. “What followed was a six-week crush of behind-the-scenes discussions, embarrassing missteps, secret meetings and private misgivings, culminating in Mr. Kennedy’s suspending his campaign and backing Mr. Trump.” SPOILER ALERT — “RFK Jr.’s name on ballot poses danger for Trump in key states,” by The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Jared Gans ON THE TRAIL — In Pittsburgh for Labor Day, Harris and Biden together tried to manage the balancing act of tapping Biden’s political strengths without getting weighed down by his baggage, Holly Otterbein and Eli Stokols report. Their answer was to make a hard pitch to organized labor and union voters in the Rust Belt, many of whom have long relationships with Biden. And Harris announced her position that U.S. Steel should remain American-owned. Walz, meanwhile, led a Milwaukee rally at Laborfest, where he emphasized his union bona fides, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Hope Karnopp and Jessie Opoien report. AD IT UP — Republican Voters Against Trump is launching an $11.5 million ad campaign throughout this month, running ads and billboards across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd District. They feature former Trump voters who have defected to Harris. THE DECIDERS — “Haley’s Voters Size Up a Scrambled Presidential Race,” by NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania: “Many of [NIKKI] HALEY’s most ardent supporters in her losing bid … fell into what pollsters called the ‘double haters’ camp: people dreading having to cast a ballot for Mr. Trump or President Biden … Harris’s acceptance of the Democratic nomination last month has changed the math.” YOU KNOW — “Howard University’s capstone moment: Kamala Harris at top of the ticket,” by AP’s Ayanna Alexander
| | | | A message from Better Medicare Alliance:   Medicare Advantage is affordable health care for seniors, and they want Washington to protect it. | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  The Biden administration is taking multiple steps to punish Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his allies. | Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo | MAKING MOVES ON MADURO — As U.S. hopes fade for Venezuela amid ongoing autocracy and corruption concerns, the Biden administration is taking multiple steps to punish President NICOLÁS MADURO and his allies. In the Dominican Republic, the U.S. seized Maduro’s plane — his Air Force One equivalent — and brought it to Florida, CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez scooped. U.S. officials had determined that Maduro had gotten the plane by running afoul of sanctions. AG MERRICK GARLAND declared in a statement that Maduro had illegally smuggled the plane out of Florida last year. A U.S. official told CNN that the move, which Venezuela decried, “is unheard-of for criminal matters” and meant to send “a message all the way up to the top.” Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is nearing an announcement of sanctions on a range of top Venezuelan officials over the country’s disputed election, which the government declared Maduro had won despite evidence to the contrary, Bloomberg scooped. The 15 people expected to be targeted include members of the military, electoral authority, high court and legislature, among others. More top reads:
- Middle East latest: In the wake of several hostages’ killing by Hamas, the families of Americans still held by Hamas urgently called on Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to strike a cease-fire and hostage release deal, per NYT’s Troy Closson, Campbell Robertson and Jay Root. But Netanyahu was unyielding, declaring defiantly that “no one will preach to me” despite mass Israeli protests and rising pressure from the U.S., AP’s Tia Goldenberg reports from Tel Aviv.
- 2025 reality check: Though Trump has managed to avoid giving many specifics about his stance on the Israel-Hamas war — and Democrats have borne the brunt of progressives’ furor — a new book from his adviser DAVID FRIEDMAN indicates that he could tilt the balance of U.S. policy much more heavily toward Israel, The Forward’s Jacob Kornbluh reports. Friedman, who of course does not speak for the Trump campaign, calls for switching $1 billion from U.S. aid for Palestinians to support the Israeli annexation of the West Bank.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
|  Democrats are counting on a New York state constitutional amendment on abortion rights to help drive liberal turnout. | Yuki Iwamura/AP Photo | EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — Another day, another struggle in New York Democrats’ ongoing difficult decade. After the party’s swing-district congressional candidates in the state collapsed in 2022, Democrats are counting on New York to help win back the House — and they’re counting on a state constitutional amendment on abortion rights to help drive liberal turnout. But now internecine fighting and a conservative backlash are threatening just the opposite: that the amendment could end up damaging Dems, Nick Reisman reports this morning. At issue is the language Democrats chose to write the sweeping equality amendment, which also includes non-discrimination guarantees on the basis of gender identity and pregnancy outcomes. Republicans have mounted a well-organized campaign to oppose these provisions with anti-transgender messaging — and polling shows that it’s making inroads in battleground districts, Nick reveals. Some Dems worry that the party has consigned the amendment to “an afterthought,” with much less money raised to support it than was expected. And they’re not planning to spend big to counter the GOP attacks. More top reads:
- Setting an example in Richmond: “How a small California city scored a big payout from Chevron,” by Will McCarthy: “It didn’t require a lawsuit, or a refinery disaster, or years of negotiations. Instead, Chevron caved in the face of a local initiative that would have taxed every barrel it produced within Richmond’s city limits.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jacob Wohl responded to a POLITICO report about his pseudonymous new venture. Tim Walz’s press motorcade was involved in a car crash. Lara Trump’s song honoring first responders got a tough reception online. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a ceremony for the 79th anniversary of V-J Day yesterday morning at the National World War II Memorial, hosted by Friends of the National World War II Memorial: Chad Tinney, Jane Droppa, retired Capt. Matt Edwards, Chaplain Lt. Col. Will Horton, Alex Kershaw, Domenic Galilei, Regina Benson, Thomas Evans, Dixon Hemphill, Frank Cohn and retired Col. Elias Nimmer. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Morgan Finkelstein is now national security spokesperson for the Harris campaign. She most recently was senior spokesperson for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department. MEDIA MOVE — Kevin Grant is joining NOTUS and The Allbritton Journalism Institute as director of development. He previously was co-founder and chief development officer at The GroundTruth Project, home of Report for America. TRANSITIONS — Sarah Paden is joining the Harris campaign’s battleground states team through Election Day. She is VP and chief political director at the Progressive Policy Institute, and a Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo alum. … Adam Peck is now associate director for federal and state comms at Results for America. He previously was a deputy director at POLITICO. … … Jaylin McClinton is joining the Alliance for Justice as “building the bench” counsel, focused on courts and judicial nominations. He’s an Obama Foundation alum … State Voices has named Marissa Liebling as chief program officer and Alvina Yeh as chief of staff. Liebling previously was director of policy. Yeh is rejoining the organization after most recently founding Falling Leaves LLC and working as executive director of the Asian Pacific American Labor Alliance. ENGAGED — Madison Hardimon, D.C. chief of staff for Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), and Rachel Stuckey, an associate at Hogan Lovells, got engaged on a sunset boat ride in Lisbon, Portugal, last week. They met in Georgetown in January 2022. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — James Walsh, professional staff member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Courtney Ballenger, operations director for Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.), got married yesterday at the Dromoland Castle Hotel in Shannon, Ireland. They met while working on the Hill. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Mitch and Alyssa Erdel, Saat Alety, Rachel Walker, Ninio Fetalvo, Caroline Anderegg, Hayden and Kelly Jewett, Cameron and Katherine Foster, Samantha Helton, Regi Simpson, Kelsey Baron and Jen Jett. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Brian Stelter … Edward Felsenthal … WSJ’s Kristina Peterson … Rick Perlstein … John Mercurio of the MPA … POLITICO’s Jennifer Yachnin, Franklin Hyre and Kelly Garrity … Lucia Alonzo of Michael Best Strategies … John Zogby … CBS’ Erica Brown … Mari Manoogian … Rita Hite of the American Forest Foundation … Dominic Hawkins of NAACP … Roll Call’s Mary Curtis … NBC’s Adam Reiss … AFSCME’s Tiffany Ricci … Paul Merski of ICBA … Bruce Moyer … Teresa Davis … Tiffany Waddell of the National Governors Association … Tripp Donnelly ... former Reps. Michael Barnes (D-Md.), Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.) and Michael Huffington (R-Calif.) ... Mara Stark-Alcala … Joshua Gross ... Kathi Wise ... Melinda Warner … Graeme Crews … Kathleen Stanton of the Personal Care Products Council … Jeff Dinwoodie… Kelsey McKinney … Jamie Simpson of the Council for Innovation Promotion … Stuart Malec of the Progressive Policy Institute … Jonathan Silver … Kim Rubey … Eddie Glaude Jr. … Sarah Peters of Husch Blackwell Strategies Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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Medicare Advantage is the affordable health care choice for more than 33 million seniors, including more low-income Americans and minorities than Fee-For-Service Medicare.
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