This is extremely important. Consider that the housing industry - which ranges from homebuilders, financial firms, and brokers all the way to retailers like Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) - accounts for almost a fifth of the economy, depending on how you measure it. And the industry has been depressed, due to higher rates triggered by the Fed's monetary tightening over the past 2 1/2 years. But perhaps best of all, the Fed is poised to begin cutting rates directly after the September 17-18 meeting of its committee. Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed this last Friday at the Fed's annual central banking conference held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed watchers are calling his speech "unambiguously dovish," which means he apparently sees the need for multiple interest rate cuts in coming months. And indeed, futures markets are now pricing that in. Traders see a 70% likelihood that the Fed's target rate will be at least one percentage point lower by the end of the year... Finally, I'll add one last reason the market is set up for a strong finish to the year: historical patterns. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, fourth quarter market gains have been the largest and most consistent over the years. Gains for the S&P 500 have averaged 4.2% during the fourth quarter since 1949 - much better than the first quarter (2.1%), the second quarter (1.8%), and the third quarter (0.8%). Why has the fourth quarter been so strong over the years? The Almanac cites the approaching holiday season, which creates positive market psychology. In addition, investing professionals drive the market higher as they make portfolio adjustments to boost their year-end performance numbers. Yes, there are also risks that can't be papered over. We have an election looming, in which both sides will likely cry foul if they lose. That could create societal upheaval and unhappiness... and perhaps greater market volatility. And geopolitical tensions - in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the South China Sea - are growing and threaten to draw the U.S. in. There are always risks, and smart investors account for them. But if I have to decide whether to be in the market or out of it right now, consider me all in. Invest wisely, Matt |
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