| | | | |  | | By Erin Banco, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Jonathan Lemire | |  Following the hostage deaths Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech, saying he would not compromise on the issue of the Philadelphi Corridor and batted down any suggestion that he was not prioritizing bringing Israelis home from Gaza. | Pool photo by Ohad Zwigenberg | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Gaza cease-fire negotiations aren’t progressing the way U.S. officials had hoped. Despite optimism earlier this month that a deal was close, U.S. and Israeli officials now say they are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will soon be reached. The deaths of six hostages in Gaza over the weekend have some officials worried that the progress negotiators made in recent weeks will be blunted in the coming days by what they forecast will be strong retaliation from Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. They worry tensions between Israel and Hamas will only increase, potentially stalling negotiations. “It does not look good,” one Israeli official briefed on the negotiations said. “We are still working at it, but the hostages being killed changed everything.” Those fears, though expressed privately, stand in stark contrast to what U.S. officials telecasted last week. After negotiators met in Cairo on Aug. 26, Biden officials said the talks were on track and that they were optimistic a deal would soon be reached. All that was left to work out were a few minor details, they said at the time. But those small details have become major hurdles and they are proving to be much more difficult to overcome than some inside the administration initially anticipated. The main sticking point between Hamas and Israel is the presence of Israeli troops along the Philadelphi Corridor — a small strip of demilitarized borderland that separates Gaza from Egypt. Netanyahu wants at least some of his troops stationed there in order to prevent the militant group from using a purported network of tunnels there to smuggle weapons and fighters through the border of Egypt. The two sides are also still negotiating, along with Egypt, who will control the official border between Egypt and Gaza known as the Rafah crossing. The international negotiating group, comprised of representatives from Qatar, Egypt, Israel and the U.S., has previously discussed potentially bringing in a third party to operate the crossing. The National Security Council declined to comment. President JOE BIDEN has grown increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu — his vexation obvious over the weekend when he responded with a curt “no” to a reporter who had asked whether the Israeli prime minister was doing enough to close the deal. That bluntness came as no surprise to some of Biden’s senior aides, who have watched the president sour on his Israeli counterpart over the belief that Netanyahu is extending the war to remain in power, according to two officials not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations. Since abandoning his reelection bid, Biden has viewed achieving a cease-fire deal before the election as a sure way to bolster his own legacy — and to help Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ chances this November, the officials said. A Harris win would also burnish Biden’s chapter in the history books. And the president grew particularly emotional after the death this weekend of an American citizen, HERSH GOLDBERG-POLIN, who had been held captive in the Gaza tunnels, the officials said. Biden was moved by Polin’s parents, who made an emotional plea at the DNC last month, and he told aides that their months of worry followed by sudden grief reminded him of the excruciatingly slow loss to cancer of his own son, Beau. Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and Hamas appear to be mounting. Following the hostage deaths Sunday, Netanyahu made a speech, saying he would not compromise on the issue of the Philadelphi Corridor and batted down any suggestion that he was not prioritizing bringing Israelis home from Gaza. “If we do leave [the Philadelphi Corridor], we may not return for 42 years,” he said. “This corridor is different from all the other places — it is central, it determines all of our future.” Hamas on Sunday released video footage of the six hostages who were killed, vowing to release more in the coming days, including what the group has described as their “last messages.” At the same time, hundreds of thousands of Israelis have come out in protest across Israeli cities, urging the government to reach a cease-fire deal quickly and bring the remaining hostages home alive. On Monday, U.S. officials were still adamant that a deal is still possible, but they backed off their previously confident rhetoric that an agreement was close. “I can’t guarantee a certain outcome, we just believe it is an outcome that is possible,” said National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY. “It’s not optimism. It is pragmatism.” Kirby defended the administration’s past statements, saying they “were accurate.” “But we also never said it was going to be easy,” he said. “I can’t tell you what the timeline looks like.”
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | NO LOVE LOST: Tensions between Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT continue to boil as the country’s government faces intense pressure from allies and the Israeli public to reach a deal with Hamas after 11 brutal months of war. Gallant and Netanyahu have long been at odds over major policy disagreements — Netanyahu threatened to fire Gallant last year amid protests over his government’s judicial reform plan but begrudgingly backtracked on his word. But as Reuters’ JAMES MACKENZIE reports, the complicated divisions at the heart of Israeli politics have forced the two to stick together even as Gallant and other security officials have voiced dissent over the strategic handling of the war in the Gaza Strip and the quixotic goal of a “total victory” against Hamas. Still, cracks in the relationship are growing more visible. Netanyahu said at a press conference Monday night that the two could work together "as long as there is trust" and insisted that Gallant must follow cabinet decisions. Netanyahu also showed a note purportedly from a Hamas commander that suggests the group is trying to apply “psychological pressure” on Gallant. RUSSIA STRIKES BACK: The Russian military is stepping up its strikes on Ukraine, as Kyiv doubles down on its efforts to hold territory in the Kursk border region. As our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports, Russian forces fired ballistic missiles at a hospital in the city of Poltava, killing at least 50 people, per the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office. More casualties are expected as responders sift through the rubble, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said in a video statement. Ukraine is standing its ground. As NBC News’ RICHARD ENGEL, GABE JOSELOW and YULIYA TALMAZAN report, Zelenskyy is vowing that Ukraine will indefinitely hold onto the 500 square miles of Russian territory it has gained along both countries’ borders as it seeks to force Moscow to come to the negotiating table. HOCHUL AIDE INDICTED: A former top aide to New York Governors ANDREW CUOMO and KATHY HOCHUL was indicted today on charges she acted as an agent of the Chinese government. As our own NICK REISMAN reports, LINDA SUN is accused of using her influence to shape state policy toward China and Taiwan. A NEW ERA AT NATSEC DAILY: Habemus papam a new anchor of NatSec Daily! ROBBIE GRAMER, a long-time friend of this newsletter, is joining the NatSec squad at POLITICO. And he’ll be covering the National Security Council and anchoring your favorite newsletter. Robbie joins us from Foreign Policy, where he’s spent the last eight years reporting on the foreign policy workings of the State Department, Congress and the White House. Robbie will be appearing in your inboxes starting next week, and we’re very excited to see him bring his magic to this newsletter. Send your tips and well-wishes to him at rgramer@politico.com. YOUR MUST-KNOW NUMBER OF THE DAY: 161,030 children in Gaza received doses of the oral polio vaccine in the first two days of the ten-day World Health Organization campaign to thwart the spread of the debilitating disease in the enclave, per The New York Times’ NICK CUMMING-BRUCE. The campaign, officials said today, is progressing ahead of schedule. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments this week at ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | CHINA’S CYBER MEDDLING: A small group of Chinese-backed online trolls is spreading high volumes of disinformation on social media, in the hopes of disrupting the November election. As our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report, a new report out today from social media analytics firm Graphika found that “Spamouflage,” a prolific group of online peddlers, operated more than a dozen fake accounts on X and one on TikTok to pose as U.S. citizens and others frustrated with American policies. The accounts spread negative content against both Harris and former President DONALD TRUMP and discussed issues like the Gaza war, racial inequality and homelessness. They’re also using AI-generated content as part of their campaigns, Graphika Chief Intelligence Officer JACK STUBBS told our own MAGGIE MILLER. “Spamouflage was the first state-linked influence operation that we saw leveraging AI-generated content at scale in its operations. That was late 2022, and now it’s something we encounter like every other week,” Stubbs said “Probably of all the influence operations we’re tracking, Spamouflage has been one of the most enthusiastic in its embrace of generative AI.” Though the campaign ultimately is following a “high volume, low impact” model, the report still comes as worries grow that China could step up its efforts to meddle in the U.S. election as a way to advance its interests.
| | | |   | | | | | LONDON IS NOT CALLING: The U.S. government isn’t too concerned about the U.K. government’s decision to suspend some arms sales to Israel. Speaking to reporters today, NSC spokesperson Kirby said that “every nation can speak for themselves” in regards to their support of Israel. Kirby added: “There has been no determination by the United States that they have violated international humanitarian law.” Leading lawmakers on Capitol Hill are also saying little. Most of the top Democrats or Republicans on congressional foreign policy panels offered no immediate comment when reached for comment by NatSec Daily. Only Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, offered a comment. “I am disappointed to see any ally of ours deny support to our shared ally Israel. The sooner the threat of Hamas can be wiped out, the sooner the war can end and the innocent people in Israel and Gaza can live without fear," Risch said in a statement to NatSec Daily. The minimal reaction from Washington comes as London grapples with Foreign Secretary DAVID LAMMY’s bombshell announcement that the U.K. would pause some arms sales to Israel over the potential that those weapons and tools could be used in violation of international humanitarian law. Former British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON slammed the Labour Party today, accusing it of “abandoning” Israel. He asked: “Do they want Hamas to win?" NATO IS BRAT? British pop sensation CHARLI XCX declared that “brat summer” ended last night. And the folks who run NATO’s social media accounts decided this was their last chance to be a part of the summer phenomenon. Your favorite Gen-Z newsletter co-writer was scrolling on Instagram (as he is known to do for videos of cute cats and tips for taking care of his plants) when he saw that the official NATO account posted its own spin on the now-ubiquitous chartreuse square, adding the word “peace” into its center. The transatlantic alliance captioned the post: “Summer might be over, but the goal for peace remains ��”. We can’t say with any certainty if this means NATO is “brat,” or what this might mean for NATO’s diplomatic strategy going forward, but clearly the memes will live on.
| | CONGRESS’ HOMEWORK PILE: Congress returns next week after a long August recess, and as our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!), they have quite a few defense-related items left on their to-do list. Congress has until Oct. 1 to avoid a government shutdown, and it is unlikely that we’ll see a full-year spending deal ahead of the election. House and Senate appropriators have also not fully reconciled the chambers’ different defense spending bills, meaning that they’ll likely pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open. There’s also the question of how the Senate will process a spate of key military promotions. Leading the list is Lt. Gen. STEVEN NORDHAUS, Biden’s nominee to be the next chief of the National Guard Bureau, who has yet to receive a confirmation hearing. The Senate must also address the nomination of Maj. Gen. DUKE PIRAK to be director of the Air National Guard and Lt. Gen. RONALD CLARK’s promotion to four-star general and lead Army forces in the Pacific. Regardless of how congressional leadership maneuvers, it’s bound to upset some defense hawks, especially if a few continuing resolutions are needed to seal the deal. Rep. KEN CALVERT told our own CONNOR O’BRIEN "I hate CRs.” “They cost us a lot of money, probably about a billion and a half dollars a month,” Calvert added.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BINANCE EXEC’S HEALTH DETERIORATES: The family of jailed Binance executive TIGRAN GAMBARYAN is warning that the American’s health is rapidly worsening in Nigerian custody, as they urge the U.S. government to do more to secure his release on disputed charges. In a letter shared with NatSec Daily, ROBERT WATKINS, a Los Angeles-based orthopedic surgeon, warned that Gambaryan, who has been denied access to a wheelchair despite reporting pain from a herniated disc and weakened health after bouts of pneumonia and malaria in custody, could experience “permanent neurological loss and severe deficit with delayed treatment.” Watkins evaluated Gambaryan virtually in mid-July. And in court yesterday, Gambaryan, who entered court on crutches, cried out “Why are you doing this to me?” in response to a Nigerian court’s refusal to grant him bail. The letter and video are the latest developments in the dispute between cryptocurrency exchange Binance and the Nigerian government, which detained Gambaryan on money laundering charges earlier this year. Nigerian officials have claimed that allegations of mistreatment against Gambaryan are misleading and exaggerated and insist that Gambaryan’s health issues predate his detention. In a statement responding to the video, Binance said it is “extremely distressed” and called on Abuja to release Gambaryan. “His health is rapidly declining and we are deeply concerned about the long-term consequences of this unjust detention,” Binance said. “Nigeria does not need to keep Tigran in order for us to settle any alleged past issues. We continue to implore the government of Nigeria to let Tigran return home and let us continue in our engagements.” The State Department told NatSec Daily that it “is in regular communication” with Gambaryan’s family and continues to monitor the case closely.
| | — Three Ukrainian cabinet ministers stepped down today ahead of an expected government reshuffle. Strategic Industries Minister OLEKSANDR KAMYSHIN, among those who resigned, is expected to fill another defense role in the cabinet. — MORGAN FINKELSTEIN is now national security spokesperson for the Harris campaign. She most recently was senior spokesperson for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department. — Israeli diplomat EYAL NAOR is now the minister for congressional affairs at Israel’s embassy in Washington. — BELINDA ARCHIBONG was named associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. She previously taught at Barnard College and is a fellow at the Brookings Institution. — ALEX ROGOFF is now congressional liaison at Democratic Majority for Israel. He previously was Middle East policy adviser for Rep. JARED MOSKOWITZ (D-Fla.). — MARTHA MILLER was named the deputy executive director of the National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Scalia School of Law. She replaces JESSICA JONES, who will become the founding director of the GMU NSI CTC-Howard University Cybersecurity Clinic, a joint initiative between George Mason University and Howard University's School of Business. Miller is a Senate Foreign Relations Committee, State Department and International Republican Institute alum. — WILL DAVIS is now director of the United Nations Information Center in Washington. He previously was director of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Washington Center and is a National Security Council and State Department alum.
| | — SHIBANI MAHTANI, MEG KELLY, CATE BROWN, CATE CADELL, ELLEN NAKASHIMA and CHRIS DEHGHANPOOR, The Washington Post: How China extended its repression into an American city — MUNIR QUDDUS, New Lines Magazine: The Development economist leading Bangladesh’s transitional government — JIM GERAGHTY, National Review: How crypto and U.S. allies ensure Hamas remains well-funded
| | — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Korea Studies and the KDI School of Public Policy and Management, 8:30 a.m.: A conference on "U.S.-Republic of Korea Relations” — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: Forecasting the future for U.S.-Taiwan economic cooperation — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Houthi aggression and a roadmap for peace in Yemen — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 5 p.m.: American foreign policy in the next presidency Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is anything but “brat.” Thanks to our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who is always very demure, very mindful, very considerate.
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