Monday, September 23, 2024

Russia and China are blocking routine policy moves at UNGA

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Sep 23, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil

A woman poses for a photo at the United Nations.

Many countries are calling for reforms to the U.N. Security Council to address the growing calls that the U.N. system is outdated and broken. | Bryan R. Smith/AFP via Getty Images

With help from Jordain Carney and Joe Gould

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No one ever accused the United Nations of being the most effective or efficient organization. But these days Russia and China are blocking even once-routine actions at the world body.

It’s not hard to see why — the war in Ukraine, spiking tensions between the U.S. and China and the Middle East conflict are all sharpening global divides.

And that’s playing out in New York, where even the most diplomatic of diplomats are having trouble overcoming the impasse, even in areas where there used to be a modicum of cooperation between rival powers.

“Even up to a decade ago, the U.N. really was a hub for a lot of important business that the U.S. tried to push on the world stage,” said STEPHEN POMPER of the International Crisis Group. “A lot of that just isn’t imaginable right now.”

Based on conversations with a half-dozen U.N.-based diplomats and experts, here is a brief tally of how these tensions are poisoning U.N. business as usual.

Russia is blocking a U.S.-led effort to impose new sanctions in Sudan on the Rapid Support Forces militia, accused of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Sudan’s civil war has become a hotbed for foreign powers all vying for influence, including Russia.

Western diplomats at the U.N., meanwhile, also expect China to block plans to establish a U.N. peacekeeping operation in Haiti as the country grapples with widespread gang violence and the risk of state collapse.

And both Russia and China are maneuvering to block the creation of a new U.N. treaty on crimes against humanity that has widespread global support ahead of a new round of negotiations on the draft treaty next month. (China and Russia’s missions to the U.N. did not respond to requests for comment.)

It may just be the new normal. After it launched its full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia dropped all pretense of international cooperation with the West on what used to be areas of mutual interest, like U.N. sanctions regimes.

China is flexing its new superpower muscles and throwing its weight around behind the scenes at the UNSC to stymy or block Western initiatives. Washington’s hawkish tack on China and Beijing’s tacit support for Russia’s war in Ukraine have only sharpened these divides.

Meanwhile, the United States finds itself increasingly isolated from the so-called ‘Global South’ over its votes to protect Israel at the U.N. as the war in Gaza escalates.

Many countries are calling for reforms to the U.N. Security Council — like adding new permanent members to the U.N. Security Council or adjusting its veto rules — to address the growing calls that the U.N. system is outdated and broken.

But when the big powers are fighting, reforms can falter too. “Everyone is very tentative and apprehensive about what will come next and whether the U.N. is still even fit for purpose,” said AKILA RADHAKRISHNAN, a human rights lawyer and U.N. expert at the Atlantic Council.

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The Inbox

HEZBOLLAH WAR WOES: The Pentagon said today that more U.S. troops are headed to the Middle East, as tensions between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah mount.

Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER did not elaborate on the number of soldiers being sent to the region or what their specific orders would be, simply saying that the U.S. is “sending a small number of additional U.S. military personnel” to the region “to augment our forces.” The U.S. also announced that the USS Harry S. Truman strike group left Norfolk, Va. today on a deployment to an unspecified location.

Allies of the White House acknowledge that the U.S. is running out of options to reduce the temperature in the region. Israeli strikes against Hezbollah over the last several days have killed hundreds of people in Lebanon. On CNN this morning, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BEN CARDIN said that the U.S. has already asked Israel to "de-escalate" its airstrikes, but that has not happened. He expressed hope the United Nations would "spend some time recognizing that Iran has enabled the terrorist activities" of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Cardin added an "escalation of the conflict is not in Israel's interest, not in the United States interest" and the goal is to see the countries in the region "come together and isolate Iran so that the Israelis and Palestinians can live with security in the region."

ZELENSKYY’S U.S. GOALS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is meeting with U.S. lawmakers in New York today, rallying support for Ukraine’s war effort as he continues to push Western allies to lift restrictions on Kyiv’s use of donated weapons against targets in Russian territory.

In the same CNN interview, Cardin said he expects Zelenskyy today will present to lawmakers a "blueprint to defeat Russia" and added that Washington’s goal is to help Ukraine find an “off-ramp” that preserves its sovereignty.

Zelenskyy’s meetings, on the heels of a visit Sunday to a munitions factory in Scranton, Penn., powering Ukraine’s military pushes against Russia’s invasion, comes as Kyiv continues to push allies to lift restrictions. But his entreaties to Western allies are hitting snags. Speaking in New York today before his own meeting with Zelenskyy, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ said that Berlin will not support lifting restrictions on long-range missiles, saying “this would not be compatible with my personal conviction.”

QUAD’S CHINA DISAGREEMENTS: Quad leaders gathered in Delaware this weekend for a summit where China loomed large over the agenda, but there was some notable daylight between Australia and India and Japan and the United States on how to engage with Beijing in the face of increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

As Eric observed in Wilmington this weekend, Australia and India were more rhetorically conciliatory, while the U.S. and Japan were quick to note the immediate threats posed by China.

Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI, seen by some analysts as driving the Quad to be less explicitly hostile toward China, reiterated that the alliance “is not against anybody” in his opening remarks at the summit’s plenary session. And at a press conference in Philadelphia, Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE told his country’s press corps that with Beijing, Australia “will cooperate when we can, we will disagree where we must, but we'll engage in our national interest.”

But a Japanese official, who briefed reporters on the sidelines of the gathering on condition they not be named, emphasized that Beijing’s actions pose an immediate threat to Tokyo’s security and pointed to recent Chinese incursions into Japanese airspace. And a video feed caught Biden warning his fellow leaders that China’s recent actions are a “change in tactic, not a change in strategy” and that “China continues to behave aggressively, testing this all across the region.”

ICYMIBiden convenes Quad with eye on China by Eric and our own JONATHAN LEMIRE and PHELIM KINE

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ELECTION 2024

NATSEC LEADERS BACK HARRIS: More than 700 national security experts issued an open letter endorsing Vice President KAMALA HARRIS for president, and characterizing GOP presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP as a danger to democracy.

The letter, issued by the organization National Security Leaders for America, features 741 signatories. Among them are 15 retired 4-star generals and admirals, 10 former Cabinet secretaries, 10 former service secretaries, and 148 former ambassadors. Three of the signatories served under Trump — retired U.S. Army Gen. PETER CHIARELLI, former Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff retired four-star Gen. PAUL SELVA and retired Maj. Gen. ERIC THORNE OLSON.

“Vice President Harris has proven she is an effective leader able to advance American national security interests,” they write. “The contrast with Mr. Trump is clear: where Vice President Harris is prepared and strategic, he is impulsive and ill-informed.”

Keystrokes

BOOTING CHINESE AND RUSSIAN CARS: The Commerce Department is set to unveil a rule banning the import of Chinese and Russian cars and software components to the United States. And as our own DOUG PALMER and JOSEPH GEDEON report, officials are justifying the rule based on the risk that technology in cars can be used to spy on Americans or remotely control their vehicles.

“Cars today have cameras, microphones, GPS tracking and other technologies connected to the internet,” Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO said in a statement. “It doesn’t take much imagination to understand how a foreign adversary with access to this information could pose a serious risk to both our national security and the privacy of U.S. citizens.”

As Doug and Joseph write, the rule focuses on hardware and software integrated into a car’s Vehicle Connectivity System and the software integrated into its Automated Driving System. Commerce officials argue that malicious access to those systems could allow adversaries to access and collect sensitive data and remotely manipulate cars.

The proposed rule covers fully-assembled vehicles, as well as components used in the vehicle connectivity and automated driving systems that have “a sufficient nexus to China or Russia.”

The Complex

SUBS GET SNUBBED: Congressional leadership unveiled the text of a compromise continuing resolution on Sunday that should fund the government through Dec. 20, but it might not make defense hawks happy.

As our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!), the bill will not renew the Biden administration’s ability to transfer nearly $6 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine as part of the president’s drawdown authority that have yet to be spent. And the stopgap measure will not include funding requested by the Pentagon for the Virginia-class submarine program. The Navy wants to add two Virginia-class submarines to the fleet and needs more funding to also honor its obligations under the AUKUS defense pact with Australia and the United Kingdom.

The future of Ukraine drawdown funds is unclear and it's not known whether the White House and Pentagon have back-up plans if the funds expire. House Republican staff, meanwhile, said Sunday that the administration and appropriators have worked out an alternative plan for the submarine projects, but did not add further details.

On the Hill

DOJ HAS ANSWERS: The Justice Department sent a previously unreported letter to five Senate committee chairs late last week detailing its efforts to secure the November election, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports.

The letter — a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO — outlines DOJ and FBI efforts in three areas: the right to vote, foreign threats and threats of domestic violence. Lawmakers have been increasingly sounding the alarm over potential election threats, and the Senate is expected to get a briefing this week on foreign threats.

It serves as a response to an earlier letter from Rules and Administration Chair AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.), Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), Appropriations Chair PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair GARY PETERS (D-Mich.). In that message, the senators pushed the Justice Department to take more action to secure this November’s election.

Broadsides

ANKARA WANTS ANSWERS: Turkey’s Justice Minister announced today that Ankara will submit a filing to the International Court of Justice as it investigates the killing of 24-year-old Turkish American activist AYSENUR EZGI EYGI, per Reuters’ TUVAN GUMRUKCU.

“We will both bring Aysenur's reports to the United Nations Security Council's agenda, and submit our sister Aysenur's reports and evidence to the International Court of Justice, where the genocide case is continuing," Justice Minister YILMAZ TUNC told reporters.

Eygi was killed on Sept. 6 during a protest in the West Bank. The Israel Defense Forces has acknowledged that its soldiers shot her, but deny that she was intentionally targeted. The killing has added to the strain in ties between Israel and the U.S. and the international scrutiny of Israel’s conduct of the war.

Transitions

LAUREN FRENCH has become acting spokesperson and director of communications for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. French, a former senior adviser for the State Department’s Bureau of Global Public Affairs, formerly worked for the office of Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) the House Intelligence Committee and POLITICO.

— The advisory team for the strategy firm Washington Office added COLLEEN LAUGHLIN, the former executive director of the Defense Innovation Board; retired Brig. Gen. AL ABRAMSON, the former commander of Picatinny Arsenal and joint program executive officer for Armaments; MARY MONICA PALMER, a former DOD policy adviser; SHAWN USMAN, an astrophysicist and former intelligence official; former Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research ELLEN McCARTHY; TEDx founder LARA STEIN; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Public Affairs LAUREN TOMLINSON.

What to Read

P. MICHAEL McKINLEY, POLITICO: Don’t listen to Pompeo, O’Brien and McMaster. Trump’s foreign policy was a failure.

ANDREW MARANTZ, The New Yorker: Among the Gaza protest voters

FAZELMINALLAH QAZIZAI, New Lines Magazine: The real story of Donald Trump’s mysterious ‘Abdul’

Tomorrow Today

House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: An assessment of the State Department's withdrawal from Afghanistan by America's top diplomat

Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee, 10 a.m.:  Cyberspace under threat in the era of rising authoritarianism and global competition

House Oversight and Accountability Committee, 10 a.m.: Defending America from the Chinese Communist Party's political warfare, part III

Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: America's role in the world and the perils of isolationism

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Russia's shadow war on NATO

House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: An outage strikes: Assessing the global impact of CrowdStrike's faulty software update

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 4:30 p.m.: A conversation with ABDALLAH BOUHABIB, Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always gums up our ambitions for this newsletter.

Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who helps us clear editorial logjams with Heidi.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

PAC-3® MSE: World's Most Advanced Air Defense Missile

Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more.

 
 

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