| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | NEW NYT/SIENA POLLS — “Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find,” by NYT’s Adam Nagourney, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker: “The polls found that [DONALD] TRUMP has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President [JOE] BIDEN in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, [KAMALA] HARRIS trails Mr. Trump by just a narrow margin.” The toplines: Trump 50%, Harris 45% in Arizona … Trump 49%, Harris 45% in Georgia … Trump 49%, Harris 47% in North Carolina.
|  House Republican leaders expect a Wednesday vote on House Speaker Mike Johnson's new continuing resolution. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | CHRISTMAS CHAOS COMING — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON officially bowed to bipartisan Beltway pressure last night, releasing a spending stopgap that funds the government through late December as appropriators wanted all along. House Republican leaders expect a Wednesday vote, per one top aide, on their three-month continuing resolution — which expires on Dec. 20, the Friday before Christmas and the last scheduled session day of the 118th Congress. Read the bill The move officially defies Donald Trump, who earlier this month insisted on Republicans including new protections against noncitizen voting in any CR — believing, as we reported Saturday, that any resulting shutdown would blow back on Democrats, not the GOP. In a letter to his members announcing the move, Johnson roundly rejected that theory of the case: “As history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice,” the Louisiana Republican wrote. As of this morning, Trump has kept silent on Johnson’s move. We’ll see if it stays that way. WHAT’S IN: Included in the CR is an infusion of new cash for the Secret Service, which comes just over a week after the second failed assassination attempt on Trump. It’s an interesting development, given that Republicans initially balked at additional funding, but a birdie tells Playbook that Trump’s inner circle personally got involved to make sure these funds landed. While the legislation provides $231 million for the agency, it also sets out new requirements the Biden administration has to meet in order to collect the money, our colleagues Jordain Carney and Jennifer Scholtes note: (1) handing over the internal Secret Service report on the July 13 assassination attempt to the House task force and Senate committee probing the matter and (2) replying to two letters the House task force sent to DHS last month. WHAT’S OUT: Not included, of course, is the SAVE Act, the GOP bill heightening proof-of-citizenship requirements for voters nationwide that had been a key messaging priority for Johnson and Trump. The life of the CR is also half as long as Johnson was hoping for, giving the speaker little time to renegotiate fiscal 2025 spending caps during the post-election chaos we’re all predicting. “While this is not the solution any of us prefer, it is the most prudent path forward under the present circumstances,” Johnson said in his letter, arguing that the Senate otherwise could try to “jam” the House with billions in new additional spending. “Our legislation will be a very narrow, bare-bones CR including only the extensions that are absolutely necessary.” The administration, meanwhile, didn’t get the extra $12 billion it wanted for the VA, which is bracing for serious belt-tightening this year. There’s also no additional disaster relief, either — though the CR allows FEMA to spend down its funding faster than it would have otherwise, in the expectation that more cash will be coming down the road. WHAT’S NEXT: As expected, Democrats widely signaled their support for the CR last night, meaning this text is on a glide path to Biden’s desk. The White House in a statement last night called for “swift passage” of the bill. And while Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER couldn’t help poking Johnson for only now putting up legislation that “could have been done two weeks ago,” he said he was “pleased” with the end result. “If both sides continue to work in good faith, I am hopeful that we can wrap up work on the CR this week, well before the September 30 deadline,” Schumer said in a statement. Of course, the typical complications could cause some last-minute heartburn. Hard-right conservatives in the Senate could take advantage of the chamber’s time-consuming procedures to drag the process out through the weekend ahead of the Monday night deadline. (We’re looking at you, Sen. MIKE LEE!) And even in the House, where the bill will pass with a large portion of Democratic votes, Republicans will be closely watching to see if Johnson lands a majority of the majority — a must-do for GOP speakers seeking to stay out of their conference’s doghouse. For a hint of how things will go, watch the Rules Committee tonight, where conservatives have veto power over legislation. If the trio of GOP hard-liners on the panel refuse to stand aside, Johnson could seek help from the Democrats on the panel to put a rule on the floor or instead try to pass the bill under suspension of the rules, requiring a two-thirds majority. WHAT’S COMING: Despite the relatively chaos-free fall, this deadline only pushes pause on the real spending fight to come. Johnson has said repeatedly that he will not accept the “side deal” funding agreement former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY made with Biden for fiscal 2025, worth about $75 billion in non-defense discretionary spending. That could mean the post-election period — which could feature contentious battles over election results, ugly leadership showdowns and restless lawmakers eager to leave town for the holidays — could also include messy debates over topline spending numbers. In other words, Johnson’s dream of a CR into the spring might not be dead just yet. Much will depend on who will be holding the speaker’s gavel then — and who will be signing the bills. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts: a new experience for teens, guided by parents.
Starting in September, Instagram is launching Teen Accounts with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
So parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
Learn more. | | | COWA-UNGA — World leaders are set to pour into Manhattan this week for the annual U.N. General Assembly extravaganza. Here’s a few storylines we’re keeping an eye on, and be sure to follow Global Playbook through the week for much more:
- A legacy at stake: Biden will travel to New York for a valedictory address tomorrow, but it will be moment of precarity, not triumph, as Jonathan Lemire writes this morning: “[T]he spiking risk of war in the Middle East, combined with the ongoing war in Ukraine and lingering questions about the U.S. pullout in Afghanistan, threatens to tarnish his record and help Trump make the case that the world has become more chaotic since he left the White House in 2021."
- Watching and waiting: The drama over the coming U.S. elections is hanging over Turtle Bay. The prospect of Trump’s return has been especially sobering given this week’s climate-themed events, Zack Colman and Sara Schonhardt write. And meetings with both Trump and Harris are highly in demand, CNN’s Kevin Liptak writes, even though neither is expected to visit NYC.
- Z on the scene: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is keeping a whirlwind schedule this week, with plans to not only address the assembly but meet with Biden and Harris, and possibly Trump, too. But first he paid a visit yesterday to Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he thanked workers at the Army plant pumping out thousands of artillery rounds daily for Ukraine’s battle with Russia. More on the visit from the Times-Tribune
THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden addresses the U.N. General Assembly and delivers a climate speech at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum in NYC. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN testifies before House Foreign Affairs on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. SEC Chair GARY GENSLER testifies before House Financial Services. … Wednesday: Biden meets in NYC with Vietnamese President TÔ LÂM, as Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt scooped. Trump delivers an economic speech in Savannah, Georgia. Harris campaigns in Pennsylvania. Gensler testifies before Senate Banking. … Thursday: Biden meets with Zelenskyy at the White House. Biden and Harris deliver remarks on addressing gun violence. House task force holds hearing on July 13 Trump assassination attempt. Special counsel brief on presidential immunity due in federal election subversion case against Trump. Postmaster General LOUIS DeJOY testifies before House Appropriations on election mail. Q2 economic growth numbers released. Fed Chair JEROME POWELL speaks in NYC. … Friday: Trump holds campaign events in Walker and Warren, Michigan. Harris campaigns in Arizona. … Sunday: Harris campaigns in Nevada.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at noon. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up several bills, including a resolution condemning senior Biden administration officials over the Afghanistan withdrawal. The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up a judicial nomination, with a vote at 5:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- The CR might be the week’s main business, but the House and Senate have given themselves some pre-election (and pre-lame-duck) busy work, too. The House will take up a resolution condemning Biden, Harris and 13 other administration officials for the chaotic and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Senate, meanwhile, will keep bust with — you guessed it — nominations. Votes on a Tax Court nominee and Biden’s pick for ambassador for Arctic affairs are on tap for the coming days.
- How serious is Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.) about chairing the DSCC next cycle? Seven-figures serious, it seems: Last week, Gillibrand wired $1 million to the party committee, Playbook has learned — a major sum for a rank-and-file member but one that underscores her seriousness about succeeding Sen. GARY PETERS (D-Mich.), who has done two cycles’ worth of the most thankless job in the caucus. In any case, expect her floor convos with SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) to get a bit more awkward.
- The long tail of the Supreme Court’s June decision on presidential immunity keeps wagging: Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), former Rep. JOE WALSH (R-Ill.) and members of the ACLU and other groups will appear near the White House later today to announce a new effort aimed at closing “vulnerabilities in our laws that could be exploited by a president to take away Americans’ rights and freedoms.”
At the White House Biden will speak at the Gotham F.C. championship visit in the East Room at 10:30 a.m. He’ll welcome UAE President Sheikh MOHAMMED BIN ZAYED AL NAHYAN and have a bilateral meeting with him at 12:30 p.m. Then Biden will travel to NYC in the afternoon. Harris will meet with MBZ at 2 p.m. On the trail Trump will hold a rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania, at 7 p.m. (The DNC is trolling him there by putting up billboards in the city that call him a chicken for not debating Harris, per NBC.) Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak at events in Charlotte, North Carolina, at 5 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will speak at a series of fundraisers in NYC in the afternoon, before returning to St. Paul, Minnesota, in the evening.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS
|  Revelations about North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson continued yesterday as his gubernatorial campaign lost almost all its staff. | Chuck Burton/AP Photo | EXPEDITION ROBINSON — The fallout from last week’s explosive CNN revelations about North Carolina Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON continued yesterday as his gubernatorial campaign lost almost all its staff, WUNC-FM’s Colin Campbell reports. The Republican’s campaign announced that four top staffers, including general consultant/senior adviser CONRAD POGORZELSKI III and campaign manager CHRIS RODRIGUEZ, had resigned, per Natalie Allison. But Campbell reports that multiple others departed as well. That leaves Robinson with just three campaign staffers in the election’s final stretch, one of them a bodyguard. It’s a huge blow in what was once considered the cycle’s marquee toss-up gubernatorial election. Many Republican leaders in the state now think he can’t beat Democratic AG JOSH STEIN, Natalie reports. Nonetheless, Robinson has denied the veracity of the offensive message-board posts CNN linked to him; he’s returning to the campaign trail tomorrow; and he says he’ll hire new staffers. (For what it’s worth — not much — JACK BURKMAN claimed last night he was now running Robinson’s campaign.) At Trump’s rally in Wilmington, WaPo’s Hannah Knowles found that many diehard Trump backers were shrugging off the recent revelations. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — A new NRCC poll has serious warning signs for Democratic Rep. MARY PELTOLA in Alaska: Republican NICK BEGICH leads her 44 percent to 40 percent on the first-round ballot, and would clinch victory after redistribution of ranked-choice votes in the GOP survey. They find Peltola’s favorability declining as voters increasingly hear more negative information about her. The polling memo FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — A new internal poll for New York Democrat MONDAIRE JONES’ congressional campaign shows him making up some ground against GOP Rep. MIKE LAWLER. Jones has improved from a 7-point polling deficit to trailing by 3 points in an expanded field or 2 points head-to-head. They find Lawler’s favorability worsening as Jones puts more ads up. The polling memo FIRST IN PLAYBOOK III — Supporters of the Arizona abortion rights voter referendum are going up on TV tomorrow with the first ad in a $15 million campaign. “Waiting,” which Yes on 139: Arizona for Abortion Access has already started running on digital platforms, emphasizes that the state’s abortion ban forces women to delay medical care and risk their health. The 30-second spot JON TESTER’S TEST — “A Changed Montana May Decide Control of the U.S. Senate,” by NYT’s Mike Baker in Great Falls: “The depletion of local newspapers has left many residents turning to talk radio and cable TV outlets for news, with their polarized focus on national politics.” VALLEY TALK LINA KHAN SPEAKS — On CBS’ “60 Minutes” last night, the FTC chair told Lesley Stahl that concerns about an aggressive antitrust approach to Big Tech destabilizing the economy paint an incomplete picture: “We also should worry about the destabilizing effect that can arise from companies believing that they’re above the law, and they can be reckless, take massive risks in ways that can crash the economy and then they can get away with just a slap on the wrist,” Khan said. ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — Google will begin its defense this week in the major federal antitrust trial targeting its advertising business, WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and Miles Kruppa report from Alexandria, Virginia. The trial has put the company’s internal emails on rare display.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | POLICY CORNER ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — In the wake of the first attempted assassination against Trump, public views of the Secret Service are plunging. A new Gallup poll, conducted almost fully before the second incident, finds that the agency’s job rating by Americans has hit a new low in the 10 years that Gallup has been asking. Just one-third of Americans rate it excellent or good. FED UP — “Fed’s high-rates era handed $1tn windfall to US banks,” by FT’s Stephen Gandel and Joshua Franklin: “Lenders got higher yields for their deposits at the Fed but kept rates lower for many savers, the review of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation data showed. The boost to the US’s more than 4,000 banks has helped pad out profit margins.” 2024 WATCH
|  VP Kamala Harris will release new policy plans this week aimed at assisting wealth creation. | Matt Rourke/Pool/AP Photo | THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — As the economy continues to dominate many voters’ lists of concerns, Harris will release new policy plans this week aimed at assisting wealth creation, Reuters’ Nandita Bose scooped. We don’t have the details yet, but there’s a chance they could be announced in Pittsburgh on Wednesday — seeking to go beyond reassuring voters about taming prices, and show them how Harris would help actually build their wealth. Democrats have mixed feelings about the timing: Some say it’s too late to be getting through to voters with new specifics, but others note that many swing voters still say they need to hear more from Harris about her plans. On the other hand, Trump wouldn’t get specific when pressed about how he would actually lower prices for Americans in an interview yesterday on Sinclair’s “Full Measure With Sharyl Attkisson,” per David Cohen. (Many economists expect that his tariff and immigration plans would worsen inflation.) Asked multiple times to explain the details, Trump wouldn’t really answer — pivoting to attacks on Harris and saying vaguely that “we’re going to get energy down by 50% in 12 months.” N.B.: Trump also said in the interview that he does not envision himself running for president for a fourth straight time in 2028: “I don’t see that at all.” More top reads:
- Big money: Harris’ NYC fundraiser yesterday pulled in a whopping $27 million, per NYT’s Teddy Schleifer. That’s the most she’s raised at an event since becoming the nominee.
- Interview watch: Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns are both in talks for possible interviews on CBS’ “60 Minutes,” Axios’ Mike Allen reports. They could potentially air consecutively Oct. 7.
- By the numbers: From June to September, Trump has held about one-third the number of rallies he did in 2016, Axios’ Dave Lawler and Sophia Cai report. (The 2020 pandemic campaign is harder to compare.) His advisers say the numbers will increase significantly soon, but they also cite cost and age concerns — plus the fact that he doesn’t need to introduce himself to voters anymore.
MEDIAWATCH THIS CYCLE’S BREAKOUTS — “How Tim Miller and The Bulwark became 2024’s unlikely YouTube stars,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “The publication, which had 50,000 YouTube subscribers last September, had 631,000 as of Saturday afternoon and counting. Much of that growth has happened in the last two months, and video is driving it." BEYOND THE BELTWAY LONG READ — “In rural Wisconsin, a tangle of facts and fears over faraway refugees,” by WaPo’s Jose Del Real in Baraboo: “A county board and its riled-up constituents wrestle with who belongs in America and who doesn’t.” REALITY CHECK — “Politicians are promising housing help. Homebuilders say the problems are many and the solutions scant,” by NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Doug Emhoff slammed Sean O’Brien for a lack of “courage.” Kamala Harris was backed by more than 700 national security and military officials. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and “Survivor” legend Courtney Yates used to waitress at the same restaurant. SPOTTED: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore at the Baltimore Orioles game. IN MEMORIAM — “Dusko Doder, 87, Cold War Journalist Falsely Accused of K.G.B. Ties, Dies,” by NYT’s Adam Nossiter: “His career was ruined when Time magazine reported that the Soviets had recruited him while he led The Washington Post’s Moscow bureau. Sued for libel, Time apologized.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Center for American Progress Action Fund and Canada 2020’s Global Progress Action Summit in Montreal this weekend: Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, Maria Ressa, Jacinda Ardern, Patrick Gaspard, Arun Chaudhary, Mark Carney, Amy Dacey, Chrystia Freeland, Navin Nayak, Johan Hassel and Braeden Caley. — Economic Innovation Group and Institute for Progress hosted the second annual #EconTwitterIRL Conference at Decades retro arcade and bowling alley in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. The day included live podcast tapings, trivia and live music from Joe Weisenthal’s band Light Sweet Crude. SPOTTED: Paul Krugman, Cardiff Garcia, Benjamin Jones, Santi Ruiz, Jeremiah Johnson, Matt Darling, Ryan Radia, John Lettieri, Adam Ozimek, Alec Stapp, Caleb Watney, Jed Kolko, Stacey Vanek Smith, Tracy Loh, Jerusalem Demsas, Samuel Hammond, Rogé Karma, Skanda Amarnath, Jeremy Neufeld, Daryl Fairweather, Joseph Politano, Alex Tanzi, Alex Armlovich, Victoria Guida, Timothy B. Lee, Jeff Guo and Felix Salmon. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Democracy Forward has added Audrey Wiggins as legal director and Julie Couchman as director of marketing and special projects. Wiggins previously was senior adviser to the general counsel at HHS. Couchman previously was director of global client events for SXSW. ENGAGED — Timmy Briseno, director of advertising at Starboard and a Trump campaign alum, proposed to Sadie Thorman, comms director for Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) and a Trump HUD alum, at Gravelly Point last weekend. They met at a “Trump Tuesday” happy hour at the Trump hotel in March 2018. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Aloïse Phelps, a counselor at Lugo-McGinness Academy and a POLITICO alum, and Eliza Foster, a middle school English teacher at St. Anne’s-Belfield School, got married Saturday at the Foster residence in Chatham, Massachusetts. SPOTTED: Carrie Budoff Brown and Tom Brown, Eli Stokols and Elena Schneider, Sophie Willis, Gabe Brotman and Thomas Gensemer, Paul Volpe and Dabney Hegg, Alexa Velickovich, Grace McKellip and Sam Barnes. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) (5-0) … British Ambassador Karen Pierce … Kristen Silverberg … Sean Spicer … Treasury’s Corey Tellez … Elise Jordan … Todd Ricketts … Helen Tolar of Mehlman Consulting … Nick Everhart of Content Creative Media … NYT’s Mike Schmidt … Rob Crilly … Richard Viguerie … POLITICO’s Bernie Becker … Axios’ Sam Sabin … Kyle Wiley … PwC’s Todd Metcalf … Abbey Watson … Darryl Nirenberg of Steptoe … Ralph Hellmann … CNN’s Gregory Wallace … David Harris of the American Jewish Committee … Karen Czarnecki … Serenety Hanley … NBC’s Julia Ainsley and Grace Dubay … former Reps. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Jason Lewis (R-Minn.) and Al Lawson (D-Fla.) … Brooke Brogan … CBS’ Anne Hsu … Loretta Solon Greene … Dale Leibach … Nicole Mata of Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) office … Ana Marie Cox … Gisele Roget of Overbrook Square Group … Taylor McCarty Hoover … Ben Chao of Rep. Jill Tokuda’s (D-Hawaii) office … Victoria Hammett of Gen-Z for Change … Kyle Inan … Spotify’s Dustee Jenkins … Siraj Hashmi … John Tamny Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts with automatic protections for teens.
Starting in September, Instagram is launching Teen Accounts with built-in protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Plus, only parents can approve safety setting changes for teens under 16.
This means parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
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