MIDWEST MOMENTUM … OR MIRAGE? The Kamala Harris effect has House Democrats thinking they can gain seats in a place they’ve been losing for years: the Midwest. After several cycles of ceding ground to Republicans, Democrats believe their top-of-the-ticket energy could power a major comeback in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. And it’s not just talk — they’re investing millions in the red-tinted turf. As new polling comes in, Democrats are increasingly directing money and manpower toward targets like Michigan’s 10th, Wisconsin’s 3rd and Iowa’s 1st and 3rd. Those were considered “reach” seats even just a few weeks ago — Donald Trump won them by between 0 and 5 points in 2020 — and flat-out unwinnable this spring. The crown jewel for many Democrats would be knocking out rising GOP star Rep. John James of Michigan. And in the latest sign of confidence, the Democratic leadership-aligned House Majority PAC will be going up on TV in the district starting Tuesday — a total buy of $1.4 million. That's more than Democratic candidate Carl Marlinga himself spent all of last cycle, and he lost that matchup by just 1,600 votes. The two-time Democratic candidate came close last time without any real help from his party and believes Harris, with the help of his party cavalry, can help him finally flip the seat. And House leadership is invested too: Minority Whip Katherine Clark was in town earlier this month. “If almost anything different happens, if anything breaks right that didn't break right in 2022, I win,” Marlinga, a former prosecutor and local judge, told us in a recent interview. Allies of James, who gave a rousing RNC convention speech this year and is well-liked in House GOP leadership, are still feeling confident. They’re hammering Marlinga for his past comments on a “dying” auto industry and arguing that Marlinga’s own lackluster fundraising means the Democratic Party would have to do a lot of spending to make up the difference. And Republicans, broadly, scoff at the idea of Democrats winning in red-leaning seats in “the Heartland,” especially when polls continue to show Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in many battleground states. “Extreme House Democrats are scrambling to obfuscate their glaring vulnerabilities on the border, inflation and crime while Republicans are holding them accountable in the Rust Belt,” House GOP campaign spokesperson Mike Marinella said. To be sure, most Democrats still believe the path to their majority runs up and down the coasts — the nine New York and California seats that Joe Biden won last cycle but are currently held by Republicans. But far more paths have opened, and Democrats believe the Midwest seats could help determine how big that majority will be. In Iowa, for instance, Democrats are preparing to spend big in Iowa’s 1st — where GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is showing some real vulnerability against Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan as Harris makes the state more competitive overall. One Democratic group found the two-term congresswoman has a net favorability of -11 points: Just 35 percent of voters viewed her favorably, compared to 46 percent who said they viewed her unfavorably, according to a person briefed on the data. (One recent GOP poll found Miller-Meeks up 5 points, according to a person with knowledge of it.) It's an even bigger battle in Iowa’s 3rd, where first-term GOP Rep. Zach Nunn is facing Lanon Baccam, a combat veteran who is polling within 1 point of Nunn, according to a person familiar with polling on the Democratic side. Then there’s Wisconsin’s 3rd, an unlikely seat that's come into play with a prized Democratic recruit, Rebecca Cooke. A new poll by the Democratic House Majority PAC shows Cooke leading Republican incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent. Trump won the district by 5 points. And adding to all that: Democrats believe they can deploy vice presidential candidate Tim Walz as a fall surrogate to help bring home these races. Marlinga’s team, for instance, is in talks to bring Walz to Macomb County for a rally soon, preferably at a high school football game, according to a person familiar with the conversations. (Marlinga would only say this: “It’s simply a fond hope, I’ll just leave it at that.”) — Sarah Ferris GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Sept. 16, where we spotted our first hint of orange-y leaves on campus today. WHAT CONGRESS IS UP TO THIS WEEK As House Republicans struggle to round up the votes for any GOP government funding plan, both chambers are focused on other policy corners this week. House Republicans are teeing up several votes on bills to go after so-called woke policies, as well as targeting “sanctuary cities,” which have limited compliance with federal immigration law. They will also take a shot at an EPA emission rule. House Republicans will also try to pass, with Democratic support, a $3 billion bill to tackle part of the VA’s $15 billion funding shortfall. There’s still a chance that House Republicans could bring a government funding bill back to the floor on Wednesday. But so far there’s nothing on the schedule, as they’ve struggled to land on what, if anything, they will be able to get through the House on mostly or solely GOP votes. In other words, and in true House fashion, stay tuned. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are reviving a fight over legislation protecting access to IVF as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer looks to squeeze Republicans on the issue. Senate Republicans blocked the legislation earlier this year, with only two — Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) — voting at the time to advance it. But Schumer has renewed focus on it, given Donald Trump’s recent statements in support of IVF. — Jordain Carney ASSASSINATION TASK FORCE MECHANICS With Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt on Trump, congressional leaders are working to determine whether a bipartisan task force — set up to investigate the July shooting of Trump in Pennsylvania — needs to expand its scope. The congressional resolution that set up the panel established a narrow focus: “investigate and fully examine all actions … related to the attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania.” But the panel has already moved to establish some congressional jurisdiction over the most recent attempt on Trump’s life, requesting a Secret Service briefing on the matter. “We're currently working with leadership to determine whether or not the jurisdiction of our task force is going to expand to include this most recent attempt,” a spokesperson for the bipartisan panel said. The House would need to codify such an expansion — though what form that action would take is TBD. When the chamber needed to change the size of the subcommittee to investigate GOP claims of an anti-conservative bias within the federal government last year, they were able to clear those changes by unanimous consent, rather than a roll-call vote. But the bipartisan task force, while unanimously created, has sparked grumbling among a band of far-right conservatives, who are upset about members left off the panel and have accused it of moving too slowly. — Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney
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