| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | Presented by |  | | | | | Even with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket, President Joe Biden is still a favorite of down-ballot Republicans. Republican ads typically mention both the president and vice president when trying to yoke a down-ballot Democrat to the national party, according to a data analysis of more than 100 television ads done by AdImpact, an ad tracker, for Score.
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| Prior to Biden dropping out of the race on July 21, Harris was rarely mentioned in Republican attack ads in down-ballot races. And when she was, it’d be in association with Biden, typically when speaking about the administration’s policies or agenda. Biden would usually be mentioned on his own, independent of Harris, as Republicans sought to tie their opponent to the unpopular president. After he exited the race, mentions of Harris have increased — although she is more often brought up in conjunction with Biden, and not by herself. In the race for open MI-08, the NRCC and Republican Paul Junge are running an ad saying that “Biden and Harris … [are] failing our community.” Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) references the “Biden-Harris economic policies” when vowing to fight inflation in an ad with the NRCC. Restoration PAC, a super PAC backed by GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein, has sought to connect Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who represents a district former President Donald Trump won in 2020, to “Biden and Kamala's inflation.” (A handful of ads refer to her only by her first name.) And the Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with GOP leadership, has accused Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) of being a “rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris agenda.” But as Harris continues to establish herself with voters, Republican campaigns have also embraced tying their opponents to just her in recent weeks. Republican Dave McCormick, who’s running against Casey, was also one of the first to attack his opponent for supporting her. Because Harris’ policy positions aren’t well-known among the broader electorate, Republicans are taking the opportunity to craft those narratives in their favor. “Kamala Harris wanted to give free taxpayer funded health care to illegal immigrants,” a spot from the NRSC and Republican Tim Sheehy slamming vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) charges. In an ad with the NRCC, Republican Rep. John James of MI-10 connects his opponent, Democrat Carl Marlinga, to Harris, whom he says “would kill the auto industry with mandates and banning gas powered cars.” Many of these down-ballot ads mention Harris (and/or Biden) because Republican congressional committees are relying on hybrid ads in competitive races — giving the committees a cheaper rate, but requiring them to attack both the congressional candidate and the national party as a whole. Republicans had hoped that Biden’s unpopularity would drag down these other Democrats, a strategy they’re sticking to while also hitting Harris, whom many voters are still forming their opinions on. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the 2024 election: 50
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| | ‘ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION’ — “Federal authorities are investigating an incident at Trump’s Florida golf club on Sunday as an ‘attempted assassination,’ a potential second attempt on the former president’s life in roughly two months,” POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison report. “Secret Service agents ‘opened fire on a gunman located near the property line’ of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, a spokesperson for the agency said during a news conference, adding that they were ‘unsure whether the individual,’ who is in custody, ‘was able to take a shot at our agents.’ Trump, who was golfing at the club at the time, was unharmed.” TRAIL MIX — When Biden was running, he focused “mainly on major cities as he tried to repair his problems with the Democratic base,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Jessica Piper write. But now Harris is “returning her attention to a different set of redder areas — in campaign swings and advertising — a shift that underscores her unique strengths and challenges relative to him. … Harris’ team sees room to grow among many of the types of voters located in the smaller cities, exurban locales and rural areas that she is now visiting: older, mostly non-college-educated, white voters.” SPOILER ALERT — The Nevada Green Party asked the Supreme Court to “pause a state court ruling that would keep candidate Jill Stein off the ballot,” per CNN’s John Fritze and Devan Cole. The state Supreme Court ruled that she is not eligible for the ballot, which was seen as a win for Democrats who are trying to avoid her spoiling Harris’ chances in the battleground state. THE VIEW FROM DOWN-BALLOT — A half-dozen Republicans running in battleground districts joined Democrats in vowing to certify the results of the 2024 election, per POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris. That includes Republican Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Nick LaLota (N.Y.) and Anthony D’Esposito (N.Y.).
| | FIRST IN SCORE — IN THE STATES — The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is highlighting its top candidates running in statehouses across the country. In a memo first shared with Score, the committee lists its “majority-making” elections as Kevin Volk’s race in the Arizona state House; Susie Greenberg’s race in the Georgia state House; Vanessa Vaughn West’s race in the Kansas state House; state Rep. Jaime Churches’ reelection in Michigan; state Rep. Lucy Rehm’s reelection in Minnesota; Ann Johnson Stewart’s race for the Minnesota state Senate; state Rep. Ben Ming’s run for the New Hampshire state Senate; Dante Pittman’s race for the North Carolina state House; state Rep. Brian Munroe’s reelection in Pennsylvania; and Yee Leng Xiong’s race for the Wisconsin state Assembly. The memo also highlights races that will decide if Democratic majorities to protect abortion access are formed; races where Democrats are running against “Republican candidates who who supported Trump’s lies in the lead up to the January 6th insurrection and who have led the assault on democratic institutions and voting access;” and candidates under 40. The Republican State Leadership Committee last week announced its “Right Leaders Network” spotlight candidates, which includes more than 40 candidates running in state legislatures. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Competing abortion ballot initiatives will appear on Nebraska’s ballot this fall, the state Supreme Court ruled. It’ll be the first time nationwide that an amendment codifying access to abortion and one limiting access after the first trimester will appear on the same ballot. BALLOT BATTLE — The GOP-controlled Utah state legislature is asking the state Supreme Court to allow Utahns to vote on an initiative on the November ballot that would let state lawmakers change ballot measures after voters have approved them. A lower court judge last week ruled that it can appear on the ballot, but votes will not be counted due to misleading ballot language. LOOKING FOR ALASKA — The Alaska Supreme Court will allow Democrat Eric Hafner to appear on the ballot for the state’s at-large House race, affirming a lower court’s decision. Democrats sued to remove Hafner, who is currently in prison in New York. Voters will use ranked choice voting in November, when he’ll be on the ballot with endangered Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, Republican Nick Begich and a third party-candidate. Republicans are hoping that having another Democrat on the ballot will harm Peltola’s chances of reelection. PARTY PROBLEMS — A trial to decide the rightful leader of the Colorado Republican Party will take place starting Oct. 14, per The Colorado Sun’s Jesse Paul. Both Dave Williams, the embattled party chair who claimed his ouster was illegitimate, and Eli Bremer, a former county chair and unsuccessful Senate candidate, say they’re head of the party. Colorado is home to a competitive House seat in the 8th District.
| | | | A message from TelevisaUnivision:   | | | | | PRESIDENTIAL — IOWA — Trump has a slight lead over Harris on a full ballot, 47 percent to 43 percent, per a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted before and after last week’s debate (656 likely voters, Sept. 8-11, MoE +/- 3.8 percentage points). … MICHIGAN — Harris has 47 percent and Trump has 46 percent in a pre-debate poll from GOP firm Cygnal (600 likely voters, Aug. 28-Sept. 1, MoE +/- 3.99 percentage points). … MINNESOTA — Harris has 49 percent and Trump has 45 percent in a MinnPost-Embold Research poll conducted pre-debate (1,616 likely voters, Sept. 4-8, MoE +/- 2.8 percentage points). … NEW HAMPSHIRE — Harris is leading Trump 51 percent to 43 percent on a full ballot in a Saint Anselm College poll conducted after the debate (2,241 likely voters, Sept. 11-12, MoE +/- 2.1 percentage points). MI-Sen — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has 44 percent and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers has 43 percent in the Cyngal poll. MO-Sen — Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is narrowly leading Democrat Lucas Kunce in an internal poll for Kunce’s campaign conducted by GQR. Hawley has 50 percent and Kunce has 46 percent (645 likely voters, Sept. 6-12, MoE +/- 3.86 percentage points). TX-Sen — Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, according to a poll from nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research conducted by Democratic firm Lake Research Partners. Cruz comes in at 47 percent and Allred has 43 percent (800 registered voters, Aug. 24-29, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points). PA-01 — Fitzpatrick has a small lead over Democrat Ashley Ehasz in an internal poll conducted for her campaign by Upswing. Fitzpatrick has 50 percent of support, and she has 45 percent (400 likely voters, Sept. 4-10, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points).
| | FIRST IN SCORE — IT ONLY TAKES A FEW — A new report from the Center for American Progress, the liberal think tank, examines the history of close congressional and state elections over the past few decades and found that a handful of votes really does matter sometimes, Zach Montellaro writes in. Over a little short of five decades, 85 Senate elections and 410 House elections were decided by less than 3 percent of all votes cast, the report reads. The closest congressional races in that window were IN-08 in 1984 and IA-02 in 2020, both of which were decided by single-digit votes. The report highlights how comparably small margins can shift entire chambers, be it which party controls the gavel or who is party leader, which can have dramatic policy differences. “Americans living in non-swing states should not lose heart,” the report reads. “Voting for the president is still an essential method for Americans to voice their opinion about the candidates and the policies they represent. Additionally, many other offices are up for election at the same time as the presidential election.” MAIL IT IN — The Pennsylvania Supreme Court tossed out a lower court's decision that would have required counties to count mail-in ballots with missing or incorrect dates, Pennsylvania Capital-Star’s Peter Hall reported. The decision was a punt: The court said it “did not have the authority to review the issue, which would have had statewide implications for the Nov. 5 presidential election, without including election officials for all 67 Pennsylvania counties.” … RELATED: North Carolina is planning to send its absentee ballots starting Sept. 20, “two weeks past the state’s deadline” due to the legal battle independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has waged to get himself off of the ballot, The Raleigh News and Observer’s Kyle Ingram writes. “The reprinting process will cost hundreds of thousands of dollars and county governments — not the state — are responsible for footing the bill.”
| | ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are a select few: MO-Sen — Hawley has Riley Gaines, a former University of Kentucky swimmer who has spoken out against transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, saying that Kunce “supports the radical trans agenda.” TX-Sen — Win It Back PAC, a group affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, features a mother whose daughter was killed by undocumented immigrants charging that Allred’s border policies “are why she's dead.” AL-02 — NRCC and Republican Caroleene Dobson are running a spot on inflation. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I don’t feel like right now everybody worried about the goose population is getting anything resolved in our community.” — Republican Clark County Commissioner Sasha Rittenhouse on the national attention toward Springfield, Ohio regarding baseless claims about migrants eating pets.
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