Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Hitting the Jackpot (With Bonds) 💸

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EDITOR'S NOTE

Today we're doing something rare...

We're sharing an article from the August issue of The Oxford Income Letter with everyone.

Typically, you must subscribe to The Oxford Income Letter to access this kind of content. But Director of Trading Anthony Summers' article - especially given the Fed's big upcoming meeting - was too important not to share.

Don't miss out - yields may never be this high again.

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- Nicole Labra, Senior Managing Editor

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The Great Bond Windfall

Anthony Summers, Director of Trading, The Oxford Club

Anthony Summers

There's a feeding frenzy happening in the bond market right now. If you're not paying attention, you might miss out on one of the biggest opportunities we've seen in fixed income in over a decade.

Investors are piling into bonds like Black Friday shoppers rushing to the mall. Bond ETFs alone raked in a whopping $118 billion from January through June, which puts them on track to hit record inflows of $237 billion for the full year.

What's got everyone so hot and bothered about bonds? Two words: juicy yields.

After years of near-zero interest rates, bonds have finally regained their luster. In fact, even investment-grade bonds are now offering some highly attractive yields compared with their lower-rated peers.

As a result, the rush for yield is in full force, and demand for bonds is booming.

But here's the catch: This bond bonanza won't last forever.

There's a growing belief that we're nearing the end of the rate hike cycle. Inflation's cooling off, the labor market is beginning to slow down, and the Fed's starting to drop hints about potential rate cuts down the road. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on July 31 that a rate cut "could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."

Of course, the consensus has been wrong before. Back in January, most folks expected a flurry of rate cuts throughout the year. But seven months in, there hasn't been a single one.

Even so, the anticipation has investors scrambling to lock in these high yields while they still can.

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As you likely know, bond prices move inversely with yields. If rates get cut, the prices of existing bonds should rise, which would push their yields lower.

If you were to buy a bond with, say, a 5% yield and then rates started dropping, the price of your bond would go up. You'd lock in a sweet yield, and you'd set yourself up for potential capital appreciation. It's a win-win.

That's why investors are loading up now - before rates fall and prices begin to rise.

According to research from State Street Global Advisors, actively managed bond ETFs took in a staggering $41 billion in the first half of 2024, including roughly $7 billion in the month of June alone.

The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BATS: USHY), a low-cost passive bond fund, has seen nearly $4.8 billion in net inflows over the past three months after experiencing a $744 million net outflow from February through April.

The Rush for Yield Is Underway
 

That stark turnaround is just one example of the shift that's happening across the entire investment landscape.

For the better part of a decade, rock-bottom interest rates were forcing investors to take on more risk just to eke out a decent return. They had no choice but to pile into stocks and all sorts of alternative investments, pushing valuations to nosebleed levels.

But now, with bonds offering respectable yields again, we're seeing a great rotation back to fixed income. Investors can actually get paid to play it safe. It's like your favorite comfort food suddenly becoming healthy too.

This trend is especially pronounced among more conservative investors who've been sitting on the sidelines in cash. They're finally seeing an opportunity to put that money to work without taking on too much risk.

The question is... Is this bond buying spree sustainable, or are we looking at a bubble in the making?

Personally, I think there's still room to run. Even with the recent rally, bond valuations aren't anywhere near frothy territory. With economic uncertainty still looming large, the safety and predictable income of bonds will likely remain attractive.

That said, I do like some bond classes more than others. In this environment, I'm keen on high-quality corporate bonds that are trading at discounts to par - including both investment-grade bonds and top-rated high-yield bonds. If rates do start to fall, their combination of yield and potential price appreciation should prove invaluable.

In short, if you've been sleeping on bonds, it's time to wake up and smell the yield.

The bond market is hot right now, and the next few months could be your best - and last - chance to lock in some serious income while potentially setting yourself up for capital gains down the road.

Good investing,

Anthony

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