As you likely know, bond prices move inversely with yields. If rates get cut, the prices of existing bonds should rise, which would push their yields lower. If you were to buy a bond with, say, a 5% yield and then rates started dropping, the price of your bond would go up. You'd lock in a sweet yield, and you'd set yourself up for potential capital appreciation. It's a win-win. That's why investors are loading up now - before rates fall and prices begin to rise. According to research from State Street Global Advisors, actively managed bond ETFs took in a staggering $41 billion in the first half of 2024, including roughly $7 billion in the month of June alone. The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BATS: USHY), a low-cost passive bond fund, has seen nearly $4.8 billion in net inflows over the past three months after experiencing a $744 million net outflow from February through April. That stark turnaround is just one example of the shift that's happening across the entire investment landscape. For the better part of a decade, rock-bottom interest rates were forcing investors to take on more risk just to eke out a decent return. They had no choice but to pile into stocks and all sorts of alternative investments, pushing valuations to nosebleed levels. But now, with bonds offering respectable yields again, we're seeing a great rotation back to fixed income. Investors can actually get paid to play it safe. It's like your favorite comfort food suddenly becoming healthy too. This trend is especially pronounced among more conservative investors who've been sitting on the sidelines in cash. They're finally seeing an opportunity to put that money to work without taking on too much risk. The question is... Is this bond buying spree sustainable, or are we looking at a bubble in the making? Personally, I think there's still room to run. Even with the recent rally, bond valuations aren't anywhere near frothy territory. With economic uncertainty still looming large, the safety and predictable income of bonds will likely remain attractive. That said, I do like some bond classes more than others. In this environment, I'm keen on high-quality corporate bonds that are trading at discounts to par - including both investment-grade bonds and top-rated high-yield bonds. If rates do start to fall, their combination of yield and potential price appreciation should prove invaluable. In short, if you've been sleeping on bonds, it's time to wake up and smell the yield. The bond market is hot right now, and the next few months could be your best - and last - chance to lock in some serious income while potentially setting yourself up for capital gains down the road. Good investing, Anthony |
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