Breaking News: Trump receives no punishment for hush money conviction

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Trump receives no punishment for hush money conviction 01/10/2025 10:10 AM EST NEW YORK — Donald Trump was not punished for his criminal conviction in the Manhattan hush money case, bringing a lackluster end to the legal saga that will make him the country's first felon-turned-president. At a sentencing hearing on Friday, a New York judge declined to sentence the president-elect to prison time or impose fines after a jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of business fraud in connection with a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in the final days of the 2016 presidential election. Read the latest

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Kennedy’s vaccine sell

Delivered daily by 10 a.m., Pulse examines the latest news in health care politics and policy.

Jan 10, 2025 View in browser   By Chelsea Cirruzzo With Robert King Driving the Day Robert F. Kennedy Jr. visited Capitol Hill again today to makes his sales pitch to senators, whose votes he's looking for. | Francis Chung/POLITICO RFK JR. IS JUST ASKING — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who spent years railing against vaccines and sowing doubt about their safety as well as bashing pesticides, ultra-processed and genetically modified foods, is just a “person with questions.” That’s how some Republican lawmakers he’s met with recently are describing him as he attempts to win the votes of Senate Republicans and Democrats who will decide whether he leads HHS. “He’s not anti-vaccine,” Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn , who sits on the Finance Committee, told reporters following his meeting with Kennedy on Thursday. The committee will likely hold a confirmation hearing in the coming weeks. “He is pro-vaccine safety, which strikes me as a rational position to take.” Other Republican lawmakers, including Sens. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who met with Kennedy late last year, have said Kennedy is merely looking to follow the science and improve data on vaccines. “What he wants with vaccines, which is what I believe in, is transparency,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said in December. Scott’s show of support came despite the years Kennedy spent spreading misinformation about vaccines, including falsely linking them to autism, and chairing the anti-vaccine group, the Children’s Health Defense. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has signaled openness to Kennedy and met with him on Thursday but declined to say whether Kennedy’s position on vaccines might be disqualifying. “I absolutely believe in vaccinations,” Fetterman said. “I would never argue against [vaccines].” He didn’t say whether he’d vote for Kennedy. Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, a longtime advocate of farm interests, told reporters Kennedy’s views on farming and food production are “much more reasonable than I expected,” even though Kennedy has criticized the use of genetically modified plants and pesticides in the past. “The reports I read didn’t reflect what he actually believes and how he will act in those areas,” Grassley said. Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said he had a “good meeting” with Kennedy during which they spoke about Kennedy’s views on pesticides. Boozman added that Kennedy would merely try to discourage consumption of ultra-processed foods, not seek to ban ingredients or manufacturing processes. Not everyone has been convinced — and opponents say that, even if Kennedy doesn’t try to pull vaccine approvals, he can still sow doubt over their safety.   House Democrats, the Democratic governor of Hawaii and progressive groups urge the senators to vote no. On Thursday, the Committee to Protect Health Care, a physicians’ advocacy group, released an open letter signed by more than 15,000 doctors calling Kennedy, who’s long questioned public health consensus about the importance of vaccination, “dangerous.” Republicans have mostly backed Kennedy, and he can win confirmation if 50 of the 53 GOP senators vote for him. WELCOME TO FRIDAY PULSE. Today’s edition has been brought to you by a very, very cold writer who finds herself dreaming of the hot, humid dog days of summer in Washington. Send your tips, scoops and feedback to ccirruzzo@politico.com and follow along @ChelseaCirruzzo. In Congress Helping Robert F. Kennedy Jr. navigate Congress is Ken Nahigian, who knows his way around the chambers. | Francis Chung/POLITICO SCOOP: MEET KENNEDY’S GUIDE TO CONGRESS — A Trump transition savant is helping to guide Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — President-elect Donald Trump’s controversial pick to lead HHS — through the Senate confirmation process, Chelsea, Robert and POLITICO’s Marcia Brown, Daniel Payne and Grace Yarrow report. Ken Nahigian, who led the Trump transition in 2017, is Kennedy’s liaison to senators, according to four people familiar with the matter. Nahigian knows the Senate well. He worked for the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee under then-Chairs John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Ted Stevens (R-Alaska). He cut his teeth in politics working for longtime Kansas Sen. Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. Nahigian is executive vice president for policy and communications at the communications shop Nahigian Strategies. After working on Trump’s transition in 2017, he and his firm secured hundreds of thousands of dollars in federal consulting contracts through the first Trump administration’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. He once lobbied for health care interests, including for the Israeli drugmaker Teva Pharmaceuticals and the Coalition for Access Now, which promotes cannabidiol, a marijuana derivative, for medical purposes. Rep. Dan Crenshaw is proposing a House select committee to help fight Mexican drug cartels. | Jose Luis Magana/AP A COMMITTEE TO FIGHT THE CARTELS — Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) wants House Speaker Mike Johnson to set up a select committee to work on legislation to fight Mexican drug cartels but hasn’t been able to get Johnson to commit to it yet. “Trump’s team likes it; a lot of chairmen who would have jurisdiction over this stuff like it and told the speaker; this is a no-brainer,” Crenshaw told POLITICO’s Carmen Paun. A former Navy SEAL, Crenshaw led a task force in the last Congress on combating the cartels, where he found many government agencies working on the issue but no central coordination. A select committee would enable him and other members to hire staff to work on the problem. Why it matters: Crenshaw has long advocated taking a more forceful approach against drug cartels in Mexico that produce and traffic illicit fentanyl into the U.S., where the drug drove a record number of overdose deaths during the pandemic. While fatal drug overdoses have gone down over the past year, Crenshaw said the interest in fighting the cartel remains. “People want to go to war with the cartels,” he said. PUSH FOR MEDICAID SPENDING CAPS — New House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) said a cap on federal Medicaid spending is needed to control the budget, Robert reports. Guthrie wants to tackle changing how the federal government pays states for Medicaid, which now is open-ended. He is exploring a per capita allotment that caps spending after a certain amount, with the overall cap growing with the rate of medical inflation. “The overall thing for me is we have a 1.8 trillion budget deficit. It isn’t sustainable,” said Guthrie. “It’s not cutting the program. We want to make it sustainable. Eventually, it is going to crash if we don’t fix this.” Republicans are exploring one of several packages to be considered under reconciliation, a procedural tool that lets budget-related legislation get through the Senate via a simple majority. Some lawmakers have eyed Medicaid reform as a potential pay-for. “They are looking for any pay-fors they can find,” said Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), referring to leadership. But Guthrie acknowledged that discussions on any reform package are in the embryonic stage. “We have to get our budget under control, and we have to do it responsibly, and Medicaid is one that I want to tackle,” he said. “We will see where the will of the conference is.” Names in the News Cornerstone Government Affairs is adding Dianne Nellor and Ashley Palmer to its federal government relations team. Nellor most recently was clerk/staff director on the Senate Appropriations Agriculture-FDA Subcommittee. Palmer was a professional staff member on the Senate Appropriations Labor-HHS Subcommittee. WHAT WE'RE READING The Washington Post reports on how wildfire smoke impacts health. Reuters reports that Chinese health authorities have said they’ve found a new mutated cluster of mpox. The New York Times reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s advisers have been trying to tie immigration policy to a health threat.   Follow us on Twitter Dan Goldberg @dancgoldberg Chelsea Cirruzzo @chelseacirruzzo Lauren Gardner @Gardner_LM Sophie Gardner @sophie_gardnerj Kelly Hooper @kelhoops Robert King @rking_19 David Lim @davidalim Megan Messerly @meganmesserly Alice Miranda Ollstein @aliceollstein Carmen Paun @carmenpaun Daniel Payne @_daniel_payne Ruth Reader @RuthReader Erin Schumaker @erinlschumaker   Follow us

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Oil's on the move, but are we reliving 70's' style shock—or is an even bigger storm brewing? ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 

Katusa's Investment Insights January 10, 2025 Oil’s 2025 Surge: Echoes of 1973 or the Calm Before the Storm?   By Marin Katusa In 1973, the oil embargo caught the world by surprise. Drivers faced long lines at gas stations and panic spread. The events showed how fast oil markets can flip from calm to crisis. Fast-forward to 2025, and many fear history could repeat itself. This time, the stakes are even higher. Investors are watching every tick in oil prices, eager to know if this year’s surge will last—or if we’re on the brink of something bigger.   The Early Spike: Can It Last? At the start of January, oil soared. U.S. WTI crossed $74 per barrel, and Brent crude neared $76.55. That’s the highest since October 2024. Two triggers lit the fuse: a sharp drop in U.S. inventories and a vow from Chinese President Xi to keep economic growth alive. On the surface, those headlines hint at a bull market for crude. Yet look closer, and you’ll see reasons to stay cautious.   Recession Watch: Why Job Openings Matter If you want an early glimpse of trouble, watch job openings. When new job openings drop, a recession often follows. History proves it. Over the last 25 years, falling openings have spelled doom for the economy more than once. Recent data shows job openings have slipped by 8.2% since Q3 2024—the steepest drop in nearly five years. Right now, the data hints that we could be teetering on the edge again. The Fed hoped to wrap up its fight against inflation by late 2024. Instead, inflation dug in around 2.5%–2.7%. Surging public spending and talk of tariffs forced Jerome Powell to change course. In December 2024, he slashed his plan for four rate cuts down to two. That’s a clear sign the Fed isn’t confident. They see storm clouds ahead... When businesses stop hiring, consumer spending slips. That’s a red flag for oil demand because less consumer spending means fewer goods shipped and fewer trips made. To make things more complicated, there’s talk of potential tax breaks and new trade tariffs from the Trump administration. That forced Fed Chair Jerome Powell to revise his plans. Instead of four rate cuts in 2025, he announced only two. Less stimulus can throttle economic growth—and oil demand.   Trade Tariffs: A Boomerang in the Making? Add in the looming possibility of tariffs, and you have an even bigger puzzle. The Trump administration wants stiff tariffs on Chinese goods. The idea is to bolster U.S. manufacturing—but at what cost? Slapping tariffs on Chinese imports risks sparking a global trade brawl. That would send the U.S. dollar even higher. Before diving into how these forces collide, let’s look at another worrying sign: shrinking manufacturing. The U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has stayed under 50 for over two years, pointing to a contracting factory sector. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive, from cars to crude oil. With the U.S. PMI stuck below 50, our manufacturing sector is already contracting. A stronger dollar drives up the cost of U.S. goods and oil overseas. That curbs demand, enlarges stockpiles, and pressures prices. Already, U.S. inventories aren’t shrinking as forecast, raising fears of a glut that could break oil’s delicate stability. Cheaper alternatives appear more attractive to foreign buyers. You’d think shrinking stockpiles would support higher prices, yet the recent inventory declines have underwhelmed analysts. When stockpiles don’t drop as projected, it signals demand isn’t as robust as expected—or that supply is outpacing consumption. Then there’s the China factor…   China’s Tightrope Walk China was supposed to save the day. For years, China’s roaring economy propped up global oil demand. But its problems run deeper now. An $18 trillion property crisis rocked consumer confidence. Local government debt exploded, accounting for nearly half of the country’s GDP. Analysts worry about a wave of bankruptcies and abandoned projects if the pressure grows. To top it off, the Trump administration just hinted at a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. If those tariffs materialize, manufacturing could shift away from China to lower-cost hubs in Southeast Asia. That means fewer factories in China, less industrial output, and—most important for oil bulls—slumping demand. China’s economic slowdown could drag global demand down with it. When the world’s top oil importer stumbles, prices usually respond. China was the main engine of demand growth for more than a decade. A major slowdown there ripples through the entire market, pressuring oil prices in a way not seen since the 2014 crash.   OPEC is Also in the Mix… You’d think OPEC would prop up prices by cutting production. But their moves tell a different story. Historically, the cartel adjusted production to keep prices stable… Instead, they just delayed a planned boost in output of 180,000 barrels per day until April. Yet OPEC’s total production still rose in November, hitting 27 million barrels per day. With China’s demand faltering, the stage is set for an oversupply that could pummel prices. If China’s hiccups become a crisis and the U.S. economy slows, the extra oil supply could flood the market. Prices might tumble, turning today’s rally into tomorrow’s retreat.   It’s About to Get Interesting… So, what’s the upshot for all 195,000 of you tuning in? It’s a classic tug-of-war. Prices keep climbing, driven by inventory dips and China’s pledge for fresh stimulus. Yet signs of fragility are everywhere: a cooling U.S. job market, slowing manufacturing, volatile export data, and looming trade disputes. If tariffs spike or if China’s property woes intensify, oil could follow the script of 1973—or 2014—and plunge faster than most imagine. Could we see a true revival instead? Sure, if the Fed surprises everyone by cutting rates more aggressively, or if China floods its economy with stimulus. But that’s a risky bet in a landscape full of political uncertainties. Any single factor, from a sudden tariff to a new COVID variant, could twist the narrative. In 1973, the world learned how a single event can turn oil markets on their head. In 2025, it might be a combination of factors—from recession fears in the U.S. to debt overload in China, from OPEC’s cautious maneuvers to a surging dollar—that signals the next tipping point. Nobody can say with certainty which way it’ll break. But we do know the stage is set for fireworks. Subscribers to my premium newsletter - Katusa’s Resource Opportunities - are up over 30% (and getting paid handsomely while holding) on my favorite oil play. And we just profiled another major energy company that’s up 128% in the last year. We’re keeping a close eye on job openings, U.S. exports, and China’s property sector. Looking for any shift in OPEC policy or a sudden currency swing. If all these signals start blinking red at once, look out. But if even one bright spot—like a major Fed pivot—takes the reins, we might see oil hold strong. Until then, the memory of 1973 should remind us that oil markets don’t just drift along. They lurch, spike, and crash—often when we least expect it. And that’s where we’ll be waiting, like alligator investors. Regards, Marin Katusa For Real-Time Market Alerts, Follow Us: Share Tweet Share Copyright © 2025, Katusa Research, All rights reserved. PLEASE READ: RETURNS AND TESTIMONIAL DISCLOSURE  Contact Us | Privacy | Terms & Conditions Details and Disclosures Investing can have large potential rewards, but it can also have large potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in financial instruments, including stocks, options, and futures. Katusa Research makes every best effort in adhering to publishing exemptions and securities laws. By reading this, you agree to all of the following: You understand this to be an expression of opinions and NOT professional advice. You are solely responsible for the use of any content and hold Katusa Research, and all partners, members, and affiliates harmless in any event or claim. If you purchase anything through a link in this email, you should assume that we have an affiliate relationship with the company providing the product or service that you purchase, and that we will be paid in some way. 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