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| | Donald Trump’s struggling social media venture may have a new problem on its hands: the 2024 election. Trump Media & Technology Group — the fledgling startup behind Truth Social — has warned for months that the company’s success will partly hinge on “the reputation and popularity” of Trump himself. Now, as the GOP nominee suffers a hit in the polls following Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence atop the Democratic ticket, Wall Street and MAGA investors appear to be taking notice. “It is at this point a pure play proxy on Trump winning and, from about 30 minutes into his acceptance speech [at the Republican National Convention] until now, he’s stepped on just about every rake he possibly could,” Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle told MM. “That’s been hammering the stock.” Shares in Trump Media have plunged in recent weeks after briefly popping last month following the assassination attempt on Trump. On Tuesday, the stock finished trading at $21.42 — its lowest closing price since the shares debuted in the public markets five months ago. And that’s even as the stock market has largely been rising. “The rising tide hasn’t lifted that boat,” Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick said. Trump Media has already been on a dizzying ride this year, filled with eye-popping jumps in the stock market, lawsuits and dismal financial results. Its most recent earnings, released earlier this month, show the company recorded a more than $16 million loss during the second quarter. But the decline of late is threatening what has become a major source of Trump’s wealth. The former president currently holds more than 114 million shares in Trump Media, a stake worth about $2.5 billion. His total net worth, by comparison, is estimated to be $4.3 billion. Trump has been barred from selling his shares due to a so-called lock-up agreement, along with several other company insiders. But that prohibition is now set to end in September. Cashing out would represent a seismic opportunity for Trump. He could use the funds to help pay off legal bills or, according to longtime Federal Election Commission official Tom Moore, even finance his own campaign in the home stretch to November. Yet selling won’t be as easy as pressing a button on Trump’s Robinhood app — and even the possibility of him doing so is weighing on some investors. “If you’re a shareholder looking at this thinking, ‘Oh my, the float’s going to be expanding dramatically with a seller who certainly has no shortage of cash needs prior to November,’ that’s a concern,” Sosnick told MM. Trump has given no public indication that he’s planning to seize on his looming windfall. He has returned to X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter that famously kicked him off following the Jan. 6 insurrection. But Trump appears to be reserving his notorious online missives and attacks for Truth Social. Note: He has 89.7 million followers on X and 7.6 million on Truth Social. His company, meanwhile, appears to be trying to build out its business. Trump Media recently rolled out in-app streaming on Truth Social, its prized asset. And Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told MM in a statement that the company has $344 million in cash and cash equivalents and zero debt. But how long Trump Media hangs on is ultimately a question about the election. For Tuttle, as long as Trump is down in the polls, he doesn’t see a floor on the company’s stock price. A Trump win, however, “could change everything,” he said. IT’S WEDNESDAY — Welcome to Day 3 of the DNC. If you’re in Chicago and want to meet up — or just need some help navigating the food scene — let me know: dharty@politico.com. And, of course, Sam is always at ssutton@politico.com.
| | | | A message from American Land Title Association: A home is the biggest purchase most families will make. Title insurance protects against ownership disputes or defects with a property title, and works to keep families in their homes if they arise. Learn more about title insurance. | | | | | We have a ton of programming all week from Chicago at the CNN-POLITICO Grill. Today’s includes interviews with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens and Chicago’s own Brandon Johnson. Plus, Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro will be appearing, while Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman speaks with POLITICO Economics Correspondent Victoria Guida. The Fed’s July minutes will be released at 2 p.m. … Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz keynotes Wednesday night’s DNC programming. Noncompete ban blocked — A federal judge on Tuesday struck down the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on noncompete agreements, in a blow to President Joe Biden’s worker-centric agenda, Nick Niedzwiadek and Josh Sisco report. Judge Ada Brown of the Northern District of Texas, a Trump appointee, wrote in the ruling that the FTC’s ban is “based on inconsistent and flawed empirical evidence, fails to consider the positive benefits of non-compete agreements, and disregards the substantial body of evidence supporting these agreements.” — K Street and Wall Street cheer. The business world was quick to applaud Brown’s decision. MFA President and CEO Bryan Corbett, whose group represents leading hedge funds, said vacating the rule “will benefit investors in private funds, including pensions, foundations, and endowments.” U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne Clark, whose group was one of the plaintiffs in the case, called the ruling a “significant win” — before adding that the decision marks the business lobbying giant’s seventh “major legal victory” over Biden-era regulators in the courts. “A sweeping prohibition of noncompete agreements by the FTC was an unlawful extension of power that would have put American workers, businesses, and our economy at a competitive disadvantage,” Clark said in a statement. — The FTC weighs striking back. Following the ruling, which came just two weeks before the ban was supposed to take effect, FTC spokesperson Victoria Graham said the agency is “seriously considering a potential appeal,” Nick and Josh report.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | The economic vibe at the DNC — Our Victoria Guida reports from Chicago: Conversations on the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention are focused on ways the economy needs to work better for people, a contrast from President Joe Biden’s messaging, which has stressed low unemployment and rising wages — essentially, trying to sell Americans on the positives. That kind of thing won’t resonate with people, according to Lee Saunders, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a union representing public employees. “My message is a little bit different, quite honestly than saying the economy is great, and look at all the things that we've done,” he told me. “Because that shuts down people. They turn off because they aren't feeling it every single day.” He said there are lots of things the Biden-Harris administration can point to as to how it has made people’s lives better — for his members, for example, funding for state and local governments during the pandemic, or lower prescription drug prices. But “you don't lead off saying, ‘everything is fine, everything is dandy — you know, what's your problem?’” he said. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, also spoke at a housing event hosted by the Center for Popular Democracy Action in Chicago and highlighted the housing affordability crisis. “You cannot continue to pay more than 30 percent of your earnings on rent,” Waters told the audience. “You're robbing yourself of everything else that you need.” Waters said she was encouraged by housing proposals rolled out by both Biden and Harris, though she said she’s “been basically opposed to tax incentives because I think that all it does is give the rich people — the builders and the developers — more money than they should have when they claim that they're building affordable housing.” And she had some advice for the activists in the room: Come to D.C. “I'm optimistic about what is being said about right now, and what Kamala Harris is saying, but we’ve got to make sure that the public policy that has been described is adhered to,” she said. “They've got to know you exist. … I want you to visit in numbers. I want you to ask for a meeting with Kamala.”
| | | | Some Jackson Hole eve-eve reading — In the run-up to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this week, bond traders are dialing up their leveraged positions in Treasury futures to historic levels, Bloomberg reports. X doesn’t always mark the spot — Elon Musk borrowed billions from some of the world’s biggest banks to buy Twitter. It hasn’t gone well for the lenders, The Wall Street Journal reports. Nearly two years after the deal, the banks “haven’t been able to offload the debt without incurring major losses — largely because of X’s weak financial performance — leaving the loans stuck on their balance sheets,” according to the Journal.
| | | | A message from American Land Title Association:   | | | | | Auditors, get ready for tougher rules — From your host: “The SEC green-lighted new rules Tuesday allowing the top U.S. audit watchdog to go after individuals whose negligence ‘directly and substantially’ contributed to their firm's violations.” Banks’ cyber wars rage on — The CrowdStrike outage that took down the technology systems of companies across the globe last month is further evidence of the need for banks “to prepare for and frequently test the resilience of their operations,” the Federal Reserve’s Michael Barr said Tuesday, our Michael Stratford reports. “There’s a lot of work to do,” said Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision. ““It is a constant process, a constant battle as the technology changes.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | The Roosevelt Institute has named Michael Madowitz, former director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, as its first-ever principal economist. … David Hirsch, who recently led the SEC Enforcement Division’s crypto assets and cyber unit, has joined McGuireWoods as a partner. Plus, Evolve Bank — the lender that was targeted by the Fed earlier this year and has been fighting with Synapse — has added Alex Vogel and Ali Khimji of the Vogel Group as its first Washington lobbyists, per our friends over at Politico Influence.
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