An interesting mix of action... Be ready for more volatility ahead... How our Greg Diamond is getting ready... Upon further review... 818,000 fewer new jobs... And this is bullish?...
 Onward...
After a one-day breather, the bull market is moving ahead again. Today was nothing too crazy... But the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed higher, up roughly 0.4%, and is now less than 1% from matching its all-time high set last month. And the Equal-Weight S&P 500 is already there. Certain sectors are also trading at record prices, though I (Corey McLaughlin) will point out that they are notably "defensive" areas like health care and consumer staples. As we wrote yesterday, gold is also trading at all-time highs... Still, some major S&P 500 sectors, like real estate and consumer discretionary stocks, have more ground to cover than most before sniffing new high territory again. Same with small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. Of course, while some may claim to know the future, I won't say what comes next for the market with any guarantee. For now, the longer-term uptrend for the U.S. "stock market" since October 2022 remains in place, but don't stick your head in the sand quite yet. Consider the idea of more volatility ahead... As I write this, Dan Ferris and I just wrapped up recording the next episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour podcast with our colleague and Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond. This was a great conversation, which we'll publish next week. (If you don't already follow the Investor Hour – and you should, darn it! – click here to learn more.) We discussed Greg's technical-analysis approach to the markets, managing emotions in investing, and his outlook for the next few months – and years. In short, he says he's preparing for more volatility ahead. That nearly 10% sell-off in the S&P 500 of late July and earlier this month may be close to already being completely reclaimed... But for various reasons, Greg told us he doesn't expect the market to revert to the smooth sailing that it enjoyed for much of 2024 up to that point. Chalk it up to the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential election, recession concerns, or whatever you like. But based on Greg's technical "time and price" analysis, which covers a long history of market action, he says he expects a market "surprise" as soon as a few weeks from now... He's not saying what will happen but what could given his particular strategy and years of using it, from Wall Street to our company. Greg told us he's prepared for a move in any direction, but the timing is equally important... An important note... Listen, Greg's a shorter-term-oriented technical trader... His strategy in Ten Stock Trader does not entail buying stocks for the long term. It's just not what his service is all about. It's pretty different than most of the research we publish at Stansberry. Recall what we shared on Monday via Stansberry Research analyst Sean Michael Cummings: When volatility spikes and then falls, at least to the extent that we just saw in the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX"), it actually suggests stock market outperformance in the year ahead. So, if you're content to watch your shares of high-quality businesses compound in value no matter what happens next with the election or anything else, great. But at the very least – from what Greg told us – don't be caught off guard if there's more volatility ahead. Even if the rare "VIX crush" we just saw is the same longer-term bullish signal it has been in rare instances before, that doesn't mean the path there will be a straight shot higher. It rarely is. After all, the eight straight up days the S&P 500 just had are uncommon. It doesn't have to be a 'bad' surprise... However, from a trading perspective, so long as you are prepared for the possibility and are managing your risk well, volatile times can be lucrative. In fact, Greg says he hasn't "been this excited about a market inflection point in a long time." That's saying something, considering Greg is an analyst who nailed both the major market top at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 and then the big bottom of October that year, when he turned bullish. Now, as Greg wrote to his Ten Stock Trader subscribers today... Get ready to trade in BOTH directions for the remainder of the year. Even if technical analysis isn't your "thing" and you don't follow all Greg's trades, it can be useful to pay attention to Greg's outlook on the market in general. We've heard from many subscribers who think just that. Stay tuned for our podcast for more details about Greg's trading strategy and plans for the next few months. You should also watch another brand-new free broadcast Greg's having next week. For that one, we just ask that you sign up in advance. You can do so here and find more information right now. Upon further review... Let's talk jobs-data nonsense... In short, as quickly as you can read a new PDF, Uncle Sam is now reporting that more than 800,000 fewer jobs than previously reported were created within the past 18 months. As part of its annual "benchmark revisions" routine, the Bureau of Labor Statistics slashed the number of new jobs created in the 12-month period through March by 818,000. That's 30% of the 2.9 million jobs added reported from April 2023 to March 2024. Without getting too far in the weeds, this is a yearly thing the government does after it looks at state unemployment-insurance tax records and applies its findings retroactively to its monthly "nonfarm payroll" survey data. This time, the change lowers the nonfarm payrolls level by 0.5%, the largest change in this way since 2009. The most significant nominal revision was 358,000 fewer jobs added than previously reported in the broad "professional and business services" sector, followed by 150,000 less than previously reported in "leisure and hospitality." The largest percentage change was by 2.3% in the vague "information" category, which evidently includes everything from telecommunications-equipment technicians to software and web developers and IT folks. This essentially means the labor market is weaker than previously said in monthly nonfarm payrolls reports, which is tied to the unemployment rate. We (and you) probably knew this already... We will mostly spare the complaining about government data and how you can be off by 818,000 anything over a 12-month period... And we won't belabor the fact that investors first cling to "official" data that's only to be revised later to a closer reflection (though still a distorted version) of reality. When we hear from readers skeptical about official data, this is precisely why they're right. Yet as I can't say enough, we will also continue to talk about it because, for better or worse, it matters to many other investors – as you see in the knee-jerk market reactions to government reports. Today was another example... A bullish perversion... On balance, investors and traders ho-hummed the revisions. As we've said in the past, the markets can often seem "perverse." This is a perfect example. More than 800,000 fewer new jobs added in the U.S. than previously reported over a recent 12-month period probably sounds troubling. But as far as the market is concerned, this is all in the past. Folks with money already in the market now are thinking about the future. If this revision had been higher – and above market expectations for around the same number – it might have dented the mood today. But that was not the case. In fact, after the report came out, the major U.S. indexes moved higher... This is likely because, if anything, the "new" jobs numbers suggest the Federal Reserve may be more emboldened to lower interest rates at its meeting next month and perhaps in subsequent meetings this year and into 2025. Minutes of the Fed's previous meeting in July – released this afternoon – supported that thesis. The notes suggested a "vast majority" of Fed members thought a cut in September would be "likely" unless they saw unexpected data between then and next month. Mr. Market likes the sound of that – for now.
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New 52-week highs (as of 8/20/24): Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Brown & Brown (BRO), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Cintas (CTAS), Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Kellanova (K), Kinross Gold (KGC), Coca-Cola (KO), Altria (MO), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Newmont (NEM), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Novartis (NVS), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), PayPal (PYPL), Seabridge Gold (SA), S&P Global (SPGI), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Torex Gold Resources (TORXF), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). In today's mailbag, some of your feedback on the "politics of the situation" that we wrote about yesterday... We intend to share and address more in the next few days. What say you? As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "FYI, G. William Miller was a professor of mine in 1985, at LBJ School of Public Affairs at UT Austin. I asked him directly why as Fed chair he allowed money supply to expand relentlessly and feed interest rate hikes. His response: 'That's what the president (Jimmy Carter) wanted.' "In disbelief at that answer from the former chair of the so-called 'independent' Federal Reserve, I asked Miller the same question again. He responded the same: 'That's what the president wanted.' "So much for Fed independence. That's a fantasy, in my view." – Subscriber Lawrence S. "Regarding the economic platforms you mentioned in today's email: I did not hear Harris say they were putting in price controls. She said they would go after those gouging." – Subscriber Mel H. Corey McLaughlin comment: Tomato, tomahto, in my view. By suggesting a federally mandated ban on "gouging," and on a targeted, albeit significant and essential industry – food and groceries – the Harris administration intends to "control" specific prices. I have a lot more to say about the whole proposal – and everything we've heard from both sides – but we'll leave it there for now. "Hi Corey, As an original Alliance member I have to say there's been a lot of great Digests over the years from some very smart people. You've not disappointed. "I look forward to your summary of the day's events as well as the bigger macro picture. "As to today's Digest, I'm not surprised gold's doing well. After all it's denominated in fiat currency. Keep up the great work!" – Stansberry Alliance member Stanley M. McLaughlin comment: Stanley, thank you for the note. That means a lot, especially coming from an original Alliance member. You've seen it all. I agree... many very smart people have written the Digest over the years. As you know, that includes our founder Porter Stansberry, who wrote it multiple days per week while guiding the overall business, which remains an incredible feat to me. I feel fortunate to be able to simply write to subscribers four days a week, to share a hopefully helpful, informative, and somewhat entertaining take – and that nobody has asked me to stop yet. All the best, Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
August 21, 2024
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,383.3% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 1,354.9% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data Processing | 10/09/08 | 958.1% | Extreme Value | Ferris | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/16/12 | 792.0% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 695.0% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 492.6% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | TT
Trane Technologies | 04/12/18 | 455.3% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 449.5% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | NVO
Novo Nordisk | 12/05/19 | 392.3% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Gula | TTD
The Trade Desk | 10/17/19 | 385.6% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 5 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter/Gula | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 1 | Extreme Value | Ferris | | 1 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 2,291.8% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 1,471.4% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE/USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,118.5% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 743.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | OPN
OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem | 02/21/23 | 279.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Microsoft^ | MSFT | 12.74 years | 1,185% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | | PNC Warrants | PNC-WS | 6.16 years | 706% | True Wealth Systems | Sjuggerud | | Maxar Technologies^ | MAXR | 1.90 years | 691% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Silvergate Capital | SI | 1.95 years | 681% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Band Protocol | BAND/USD | 0.31 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra | LUNA/USD | 0.41 years | 1,166% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Polymesh | POLYX/USD | 3.84 years | 1,157% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Frontier | FRONT/USD | 0.09 years | 979% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin | BNB/USD | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | 
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