| If you find yourself worrying about a possible recession, don't. But don't just take my word for it. Instead, look at the most recent data. First, check out the labor market. The July employment report - published on the morning of August 2 - spooked investors because the number of new jobs the economy created last month (114,000) was significantly below estimates of 185,000. But the fact that the economy continued to add - not destroy - jobs was overlooked. And though the unemployment rate has been ticking up in recent months, it remains very low by historical standards at 4.3%. In fact, many economists believe the jobless rate has been rising not because of layoffs, but because people continue to return to the job market after leaving it during the COVID pandemic. As Martha Stewart might say, it's a good thing. Indeed, if layoffs were to blame we would see it in the data on new claims for unemployment insurance. This is filed by Americans who have recently been laid off, better known as initial jobless claims. The weekly claims data is a bit noisy - it can easily be impacted by weather or other seasonal variables - but it has clearly been trending down in recent weeks. That's made clear in this chart... | 
No comments:
Post a Comment