| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | FIRST IN SCORE — As Democrats grapple with how the Israel-Hamas war will impact races up and down the ballot in the fall, a prominent pro-Israel super PAC is throwing its backing behind Democrats running in a handful of competitive races. The Democratic Majority for Israel PAC is issuing its first general election endorsements, shared first with Score. The group is supporting three senators running in battleground states — Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.), Jacky Rosen (Nev.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) — along with three Democrats looking to flip House seats currently held by Republicans: Joe Kerr, a retired fire captain challenging Rep. Young Kim in California’s 40th District; former state Assemblymember Rudy Salas, who’s running in a rematch against Rep. David Valadao in California’s 22nd District; and former news anchor Janelle Stelson, who’s running against Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th District.
|  Democratic Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen was endorsed by DMFI PAC ahead of a competitive general election. | Ethan Miller/Getty Images | The group said it will roll out additional endorsements ahead of November. DMFI PAC does not announce its future spending plans, but has a record of notable investments in support of its endorsees. In 2022, the group spent more than $7 million on independent expenditures, primarily in House races. This cycle, it has so far spent more than $500,000 in a half-dozen House contests, along with the California Senate primary in support of Rep. Adam Schiff and for President Joe Biden. DMFI PAC is just one prominent pro-Israel group that has emerged as a major player in recent cycles — and could prove to be even more influential as the ongoing war roils national politics. But in the months since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the current war, public opinion among Democratic voters has shifted in support of Palestinians, complicating support for Israel’s sustained military campaign. The vulnerable senators endorsed by DMFI have already seen pushback from those advocating for Palestinians — voters who could make a difference come the fall in the competitive races. Beyond DMFI, American Israel Public Affairs Committee has vowed to spend $100 million to oust candidates it deems as anti-Israel, and has already spent millions of dollars this cycle in primaries. AIPAC has drawn the ire of progressives on the other side of its spending, with those candidates taking issue with the group’s donations from Republicans and its support of GOP candidates. DMFI only endorses Democrats running for office. With this new round of endorsements, DMFI and AIPAC are on the same page in some races, including both groups’ support of Casey, Rosen and Tester. But in the House races, AIPAC is backing Kim, Valadao and Perry. As part of its general election endorsement slate, DMFI is also playing in races where Democrats are the heavy favorites. In California, that includes state Assemblymember Laura Friedman in California’s 30th District to succeed Schiff and former Rep. Gil Cisneros’ bid to replace retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano in the 31st District. In Maryland, the group is backing Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski in the 2nd District to replace Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger; state Sen. Sarah Elfreth in the 3rd District to replace Rep. John Sarbanes ; and former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney in Maryland’s 6th District to replace Rep. David Trone. Texas state Rep. Julie Johnson also got an endorsement in the 32nd District to replace Rep. Colin Allred, as did Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y) reelection campaign. DMFI has waded into a couple of primaries this cycle in an attempt to shape the Democratic caucus. That includes the competitive primary taking place this week between Oregon state Rep. Janelle Bynum and Jamie McLeod-Skinner to take on GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the 5th District. The group is supporting Bynum over McLeod-Skinner, a progressive who unseated incumbent Kurt Schrader in the 2022 primary and ended up losing in the general election. It’s also backing former Virginia state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn in the crowded primary to replace outgoing Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in the 10th District. More notably, DMFI is looking to oust incumbent Reps. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Cori Bush (Mo.) — progressive members who are being targeted this cycle, in part, for their support for Palestinians amid the war. The group is supporting their challengers, George Latimer and Wesley Bell, respectively, as is AIPAC. “As Israel faces powerful enemies committed to its destruction and amidst an alarming rise in virulent and vicious anti-Zionist antisemitism at home, we’re heartened by the moral clarity of this group of Democratic leaders who are committed to strengthening the U.S.-Israel relationship,” DMFI PAC chair Mark Mellman said in a statement. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon primaries: 1 Days until the Texas runoffs: 8 Days until the Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 15 Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 22 Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries: 29 Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries: 36 Days until the Republican National Convention: 58 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 91 Days until the 2024 election: 169
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| | FOLLOW THE MONEY — It can be hard to keep track of how money flows through former President Donald Trump’s complicated web of political committees. Our Jessica Piper breaks it down in a new analysis of campaign finance filings, showing clear contrasts between Trump and Biden’s sprawling political operations. “Put simply: Biden raised more money, spent less of it on fundraising and none on legal costs, saved more, and has more waiting to hit his campaign bank account than Trump did.” THE GREAT DEBATES — Trump has agreed to two more debates against Biden, hosted by Fox News and NBC News/Telemundo — but the Biden campaign has only committed to the two hosted by CNN in June and ABC in September, along with the yet-to-be-scheduled VP debate hosted by CBS. Trump has also committed to a Fox VP debate. BALLOT BATTLE — Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign spent nearly 50 percent more in April than it did in March, thanks to a hefty donation from his running mate Nicole Shanahan, Jessica reports. A firm that works on ballot access accounted for more than one third of the monthly expenditures. The campaign has said it has collected signatures needed for ballot access in 15 states, for a total of 201 electoral votes.
| | REDISTRICTING REDUX — Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) maintained that he’s running for reelection — although it’s unclear in what district. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for a congressional map with two majority-Black districts to be used in this year’s elections. That redrew the 6th District, currently held by Graves, into one that snakes across the state from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge. And under the new configuration, it favors Democrats. Graves said that he’ll be running for reelection in a district that is “anchored in the Capital Region” and is “looking through these districts to determine where we can best represent the interests and priorities of the people of Louisiana for the next two years until a reasonable map is restored.” Before the most recent ruling, Graves said that he didn’t see himself running against fellow Republican Rep. Julia Letlow in the solid Republican 5th District, which is also in that area — a possibility that now appears to be on the table. The filing deadline is in July. TRUMP CARDS — “New Jersey Republicans should have their best chance in decades to win a Senate seat with Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez on trial, but the leading candidates are mired in a losing strategy: supporting Trump,” POLITICO’s Katherine Dailey writes. “Trump lost by double digits in the past two presidential elections in New Jersey, and his support of the GOP nominee for Senate didn’t help defeat Menendez in 2018. Yet endorsing the former president seems to be a must for most Republican candidates.” … A related dynamic — and one that will likely play better in Florida: “Trump famously helped Gov. Ron DeSantis six years ago, and seems itching to reprise the role of kingmaker” when it comes to replacing DeSantis in 2026, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard and Mia McCarthy write. Those “interested in running in two years” have “made an effort to cozy up to Trump.” ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The Minnesota Republican Party endorsed former NBA player Royce White to take on Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. “Joe Fraser, a former naval intelligence officer from Minnetrista, had appeared the odds-on favorite for the GOP endorsement to challenge the three-term Democratic senator,” writes the Star Tribune’s Christopher Vondracek. “But in recent weeks, a grassroots effort pushed White to the party forefront.” Fraser, who has slightly outraised White, said he is unsure if he’ll run in the August primary. Either GOP nominee would face an uphill climb against Klobuchar. IN THE STATES — Darrell Leon McClanahan III, a longshot candidate running in the GOP primary for Missouri governor, can remain on the ballot after the state Republican Party sought to remove him due to his alleged ties to the Ku Klux Klan, The Kansas City Star’s Kacen Bayless reports. A county judge wrote that “the state GOP ‘willingly created the very association of which it now complains’ by accepting McClanahan’s filing fees to run for office.”
| | FIRST IN SCORE — CO-04 — Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert leads Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former congressional and campaign staffer, in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to an internal Keating Research poll for Calvarese’s campaign. Boebert has 46 percent of support, and Calvarese has 36 percent (500 likely general election voters, April 18-24, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points). Calvarese is taking on Republican Greg Lopez in the June special election for the seat, which former Rep. Ken Buck vacated. If she were to win that election, that would benefit her as she campaigns for the full term — although that’s going to be a challenge in the deep-red district. Lopez is not seeking the nomination for the full term, and there’s a crowded field — including Boebert, who decided not to run for reelection in CO-03 — vying for the GOP nomination. MI-Sen — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is in a tight race with the leading GOP candidate in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Glengariff Group poll conducted for the Detroit Regional Chamber. Against former Rep. Mike Rogers, she has 40 percent to his 37 percent. But in matchups against former Rep. Justin Amash and businessperson Sandy Pensler, she has 41 percent to 34 percent in both scenarios (600 registered voters, April 24-25, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S ENERGY SUMMIT: The future of energy faces a crossroads in 2024 as policymakers and industry leaders shape new rules, investments and technologies. Join POLITICO’s Energy Summit on June 5 as we convene top voices to examine the shifting global policy environment in a year of major elections in the U.S. and around the world. POLITICO will examine how governments are writing and rewriting new rules for the energy future and America’s own role as a major exporter. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | IN THE STATES — North Dakota Republicans Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and Rep. Kelly Armstrong have each contributed at least $1 million to their campaigns for governor, per the North Dakota Monitor’s Michael Achterling. Miller put in more than $2 million of her personal funds, and Armstrong contributed $1 million.
| | NV-Sen — Republican Sam Brown criticizes Biden and Democrats’ border policies. PA-Sen — Keystone Renewal PAC, which is supporting Republican Dave McCormick, is touting his policies for the U.S.-Mexico border. UT-Sen — Republican Brad Wilson is emphasizing his achievements in the state legislature, where he was House speaker. MI-08 — Paul Junge, who’s running for the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, is railing against China. He also features a clip of Trump at the courthouse for his trial. OK-04 — Republican Rep. Tom Cole continues to go after his primary challenger Paul Bondar as an out-of-stater who’s trying to “buy his seat.” … Bondar calls Cole a “career politician” who “long ago abandoned his Oklahoma values.” OR-05 — New Democrat Coalition Action Fund is going after McLeod-Skinner, highlighting reports that her campaign staff felt threatened working for her. The group is supporting Bynum in the Democratic primary. TX-23 — Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund is attacking pro-gun social media influencer Brandon Herrera, who is looking to unseat Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in a primary runoff this month. The spot goes after him for his ties to North Carolina, as well as a joke he made mocking veteran suicides — something that Gonzales and other outside groups have hit him on. The RJC is not the only pro-Israel PAC getting involved in the race; last week, AIPAC’s super PAC also went after Herrera, in part referencing a report that he has made videos featuring antisemitic imagery. The RJC ad includes a clip from that video. … Gonzales is highlighting his endorsement from Gov. Greg Abbott. The spot also echoes the Herrera criticisms about disrespecting veterans and not supporting Trump, as well as being from the East Coast, in a callback to Pace Picante salsa commercials. UT-02 — American Action Network, the nonprofit aligned with House GOP leadership, is boosting Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Utah). She faces a primary challenge next month from Colby Jenkins, a veteran who was endorsed by the state Republican Party. CODA: HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “Giuliani’s 80th birthday surprise — getting served with indictment papers” — POLITICO | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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