Good morning. While investors may focus on stocks or trading options, big changes in the markets...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
 | | |  Good morning. While investors may focus on stocks or trading options, big changes in the markets can often be first seen in the credit markets. That's where cautious money goes. And right now, credit markets are becoming more convinced about the latest headlines that the economy is moving toward a soft landing after all.
One big key is the spread between high-yield bonds and investment grade bonds. During last year's selloff, the spread widened. Now, it's at the lowest level in 15 months. While it's still elevated from 2021's levels, it's one more sign that the market is calming down, and that the economy may slow, but likely won't hit a recession this year.
Traders should still expect some seasonal weakness between now and the fall, but then expect the usual trend of a year-end rally. At this point, it may even drive markets to new, all-time highs.
Now here's the rest of the news: | | | | | |
| | |  | DOW 34,951.93 | +1.06% | | | | | S&P 4,554.98 | +0.71% | | | | | NASDAQ 14,353.64 | +0.76% | | | | | *As of market close | | | • | Markets rallied on Tuesday, following strong earnings from the big banks. | | | • | Oil rose 2.1 percent, closing at $75.71 per barrel. | | | • | Gold rallied 1.3 percent, last going for $1,982 per ounce. | | | • | Cryptocurrencies trended mixed, with bitcoin at $29,738 at the stock market close. | | | | | | | |
| | | Big Tech Is Back in Favor: Follow the Trend | | | | Last year's big market losers have been this year's winners, at least so far. However, once a trend is underway, it's unlikely to change unless there's a big reason for doing so. That's why a number of big tech companies look attractive going into earnings.
That's particularly true of companies that haven't been associated with the rally in AI stocks this year. These companies likely have more upside and less volatility in the second half of the year.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Insider Activity Report: Cadiz (CDZI) | | | | Scott Slater, CEO at Cadiz (CDZI), recently bought 14,000 shares. The buy increased his stake by 13 percent, and came to a total cost of $49,000.
He was joined by two directors. One also bought 14,000 shares, increasing her stake by 25 percent. The other bought 100,000 shares, laying out $350,000 to increase her stake by 927 percent. The only insider sale over the past two years came from an institution.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Unusual Options Activity: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | | | | Semiconductor firm Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has nearly doubled so far this year. One trader sees shares pulling back in the coming weeks.
That's based on the August 25 $115 puts. With 37 days until expiration, 11,158 contracts traded compared to a prior interest of 101, for a 101-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $5.60 to make the bearish bet.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | • | SEC Chair Warns on AI Fraud
Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) states that the rise of artificial intelligence has the potential to positively disrupt nearly every business. But it can create challenges for markets, particularly if used to perpetuate fraud. The agency is looking into ways to adjust regulations as necessary. | | | | • | Big Bank Earnings Come in Strong, Regionals May Prove Weaker
The nation's largest banks have reported strong earnings this quarter. Regional bank earnings are coming up, and investors will be more closely watching for deposit levels, hoping to avoid the challenges that impacted Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. | | | | • | Binance Considers Layoffs
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance is considering laying off thousands of workers. The exchange is the world's largest, and has avoided the liquidity issues that have plagued smaller crypto exchange in the past year. The move also comes ahead of traditional finance companies entering the crypto markets with bitcoin ETFs. | | | | • | Senator Warren Calls for SEC Investigation into Tesla
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is asking the SEC to investigate Tesla Motors (TSLA). In a nine-page letter, the senator outlines why she suspects the violations of securities laws as company CEO Elon Musk bought social media platform Twitter last year. | | | | • | Microsoft Inks Deal with Sony Over Call of Duty Rights
Tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) has signed a deal with PlayStation manufacturer Sony (SONY). Under the terms of the deal, the popular Call of Duty franchise will remain part of the PlayStation platform. Microsoft is about to take control of the franchise as it moves forward with its acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) in a deal valued just under $70 billion. | | |
| | | | TOP | | | SCHW | 12.082% | | | | CZR | 6.728% | | | | MS | 6.293% | | | | NFLX | 5.419% | | | | MOS | 4.768% | | | | BOTTOM | | | CRL | 3.812% | | | | PLD | 3.559% | | | | EXR | 3.529% | | | | SEDG | 3.527% | | | | ENPH | 2.989% | | | | |
| | |  | | I think the market is kind of overjoyed with the disinflationary, soft landing scenario. I've been thinking for quite some time that we're in a recession, but I argued that it's a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. Now I think we're in a rolling recovery. | | - Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, on why the market has been holding up well lately, as scenarios for a slowing, but not recessionary economy, have been playing out. | |
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