| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Saratov region Governor Roman Busargin during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 18, 2023. | Pool photo by Alexander Kazakov | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt ASPEN, Colo. — Over the past two days, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has seen senior American and British officials questioning his grip on power a month on from the Wagner Group’s mutiny. On Tuesday, Gen. MARK MILLEY, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters at the Pentagon that “the command-and-control apparatus at the strategic level is certainly confusing at best and probably challenging.” As if that wasn’t cheeky enough, two senior British officials used separate events today to pile on. RICHARD MOORE, the head of MI6, assessed in a rare public address that the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led revolt against the Kremlin served as one of the greatest challenges to the autocrat’s two-decade rule. “I think he probably feels under some pressure. Prigozhin was his creature, utterly created by Putin, and yet he turned on him,” Moore said in Prague during a POLITICO event. “He really didn’t fight back against Prigozhin. He cut a deal to save his skin using the good offices of the leader of Belarus.” Hours later, U.K. Foreign Secretary JAMES CLEVERLY told reporters on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum that “an attempted coup is never a good look because there's no way that Putin can spin this as business as usual or good news.” “What we're seeing is that the first, very visible cracks that are appearing on either side were not in Ukraine, were not in NATO, were not in the EU, were not in the U.K.-U.S. relationship or any of that. The first cracks that we saw were in the Russian system,” he continued. Cleverly wasn’t done. In front of a high-level audience here, the top British diplomat said that Ukraine was clearly winning the war, in part because they were taking territory it took the Russians months to seize. In the sideline session with reporters, he added “the Ukrainians are making progress steadily.” “This is the ‘slowly phase’ because they're going through heavily fortified, mined real estate, and there is no quick and safe way of doing that and they choose to do it safely rather than quickly. I think that's the right judgment call,” he said. “And it doesn't alter the fact that we got to stick with them until this is done.” Granted, it behooves Western leaders to boast of their support for Ukraine and how Putin looks weaker, not stronger, since he launched the invasion last year. But, sitting in the Kremlin, one has to wonder if the autocrat is bristling at the bravado on display the last few days. Heck, just last week President JOE BIDEN said “Putin’s already lost this war.” Read Alex’s full story on the British comments.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century security network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | | | SIT DOWN WITH BRITAIN’S SPY CHIEF: It’s not every day that the head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service gives interviews. Today was only the second time Moore has given a public address — this time during the POLITICO event in Prague — since assuming his historically-secretive role. We got even luckier, and he sat down afterward with our own ANNE McELVOY to offer insight into 007’s head. Here are the highlights (that we didn’t already mention above): Calling all Russian defectors: Moore issued an open invitation to Russians who feel disillusioned by their leader and the bloodshed in Ukraine, urging them to get in touch with British security services. “I invite them to do what others have already done in the past 18 months and join hands with us,” he said in his prepared remarks. During his interview, he added: “The truth is that people continue to come to us, Anne, and of course in doing so they take risk. But we look after the people who come and work with us, and of course, our successes are never known.” Don’t ‘humiliate’ Putin: Since the start of the war, some Western leaders have voiced concern about the risk of “humiliating” Putin. Moore seemed to agree, saying the West’s aim was not to embarrass Russia or Putin himself. “No one wants to humiliate Putin, still less does anyone want to humiliate the great nation of Russia,” he said. “But the route for them is very clear: Pull all your troops out.” China’s ‘huge’ capabilities: Despite the intense focus on Russia, the spy chief underscored that Britain’s chief concern on the world stage today is China, which he described as unavoidable. “We now devote more resources to China than any other mission,” he said, reflecting “China’s importance in the world” and the “crucial need” to understand the capabilities of the Chinese government. Moore also said China and its paramount leader XI JINPING are “absolutely complicit” in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Read, listen, watch: 007 things the chief of MI6 told POLITICO. ‘HELLISH NIGHT’: Russia launched a series of strikes aimed at two of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in what Kyiv officials said was an attempt to keep grain exports from leaving, Reuters’ MAX HUNDER and OLENA HARMASH report. "Russian terrorists absolutely deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain deal," Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said on Telegram. "Every Russian missile is a strike not only on Ukraine but on everyone in the world who wants normal and safe life." It was the second “hellish night” of aerial attacks on Odesa following Moscow’s pullout from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, SERHIY BRATCHUK, a Ukrainian military spokesperson in the region, said on Telegram. Thirty-seven of 63 missiles launched were shot down, Ukrainian officials said, and some 60,000 tons of grain were destroyed. On the same day, South Africa’s presidential administration announced it came to a “mutual agreement” with Putin for him to skip a summit with Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese and South African officials next month as he faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, the Washington Post’s MARY ILYUSHINA and ROBYN DIXON report. KERRY’S CLIMATE MISSION FALLS SHORT: Climate envoy JOHN KERRY’s three-day visit to China in search of climate agreements fell short of the mark, our own ZACK COLMAN reports. Kerry said the hours of closed-door meetings with senior Chinese officials revealed “things we clearly agreed on,” with both sides committing to regular meetings, including one in the next few weeks. He still expressed hope of achieving breakthroughs that could keep the planet from experiencing disastrous climate change. “We had a very extensive set of frank conversations and realized that it’s going to take a little bit more work to break the new ground,” Kerry said in a call with the media. “So we’ve agreed that we’re going to meet intensively.” MORE ASPEN SPOTTEDS: We got soooooooo many emails and comments about the spotteds yesterday — more than one person asked Alex how the roast beef sandwich was — that we will do a few as we see them during the Aspen Security Forum. Without further ado: — The commander of Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. JOHN AQUILINO, spoke over breakfast with Anduril’s CHRIS BROSE about data issues. Scripps News’ SASHA INGBER caught Aquilino calling the interview with China’s ambassador to the U.S. “disgusting.” — Britain’s Cleverly and KAREN PIERCE, the U.K.’s ambassador to the U.S., strategized over breakfast with their staff about the day ahead — and discussed KEVIN BACON’s performance in “Footloose.” — Kenyan national security adviser MONICA JUMA chatting over lunch with former Deputy Secretary of State STEPHEN BIEGUN. Make sure to watch POLITICO’s MATT KAMINSKI moderate a panel on “The Global Democracy Agenda” starting at 3:50 MT/5:50 ET. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | TRUMP PROBE: GOP presidential candidates who’ve previously tiptoed around former President DONALD TRUMP’s legal issues have started to lob criticism. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said Trump “should have come out more forcefully” to stop the violence on Jan. 6 while speaking at a news conference in South Carolina on Tuesday, but still argued that he shouldn’t be charged. VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who has said he would pardon Trump if elected president, told our own ADAM WREN and NATALIE ALLISON that he “would have made very different judgments than President Trump did” that day. And NIKKI HALEY, speaking on Fox News on Tuesday, argued that Trump’s legal controversies threatened to become a big distraction for Republicans in 2024: “We can’t keep dealing with this drama. We can’t be sitting there focused on lawsuits over and over again.”
| | 702 WORKING GROUP: Republicans on the Judiciary and Intelligence committees have formed a working group tasked with figuring out how to reform and reauthorize a controversial surveillance program known as Section 702, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. “We’ve got some Republicans on Intel and Republicans from Judiciary talking,” Judiciary Committee Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) told Jordain. Judiciary Committee GOP members of the group are Reps. ANDY BIGGS (Ariz.), LAUREL LEE (Fla.) and TOM MCCLINTOCK (Calif.). Rep. BEN CLINE (Va.) said he will serve as an informal member. Intelligence Committee Republicans had already tapped Reps. DARIN LaHOOD (R-Ill.), BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) and CHRIS STEWART (R-Utah) to lead their side of the panel's work on Section 702. The surveillance power is meant to target foreign individuals abroad but has come under criticism for sweeping in communications from Americans. Read: One senator’s big idea for AI by BRENDAN BORDELON.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | $20 BILLION MORE: The European Union will propose a dedicated fund to keep Ukraine’s military stocked for the next four years at a cost of up to $22 billion, five diplomats familiar with the plan told our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI Tuesday night. The proposal would not involve the EU directly paying for Ukraine’s weapons. Instead, Brussels would help countries cover their own costs of purchasing and donating items such as ammunition, missiles and tanks. It also would help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers. It’s an approach the EU adopted shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. But the new proposal, drafted by the union’s diplomatic service, would effectively turbocharge the strategy. Read: Allies’ ‘main effort’ for Ukraine shifting from donating weapons to fixing them by PAUL MCLEARY.
| | COACH WON’T BUDGE: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) and Republicans were unmoved in their opposition to the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy today, despite a renewed push from Democrats and the administration, our own JOE GOULD, CONNOR O’BRIEN, and BURGESS EVERETT report (for Pros!). Senate Armed Services Committee members who emerged from a closed-door briefing with Pentagon officials were still dug in on the issue as Tuberville’s monthslong blockade of hundreds of military promotions over the policy continues. The Senate is scrambling to both pass its $886 billion Pentagon policy bill before August and also loosen the logjam. Tuberville said he’d entered “willing to listen” but the sitdown didn’t move him. He said Pentagon briefers did not provide evidence that female service members have complained about a lack of access to reproductive health care in the wake of the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade last year. “I was going in there with an open mind, to be convinced that this is affecting readiness, and they gave a poor answer — affecting recruiting, very poor answer on that,” Tuberville told reporters. “I was hoping they’d have a stack of papers [related to service members] complaining, but there’s zero.” Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER later said Democrats will allow Tuberville a vote to repeal the Pentagon’s policy, in an attempt to unstick the blockade. Read: It’s not just military leaders: Tuberville hold scrambles Pentagon’s policy shop by LARA SELIGMAN. HERZOG RESPONDS: Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG shot back at progressive U.S. lawmakers who criticized Jerusalem’s treatment of Palestinians, our own ANDREW ZHANG reports. “I am not oblivious to criticism among friends, including some expressed by respected members of this House,” Herzog said in an address to Congress today. “I respect criticism, especially from friends, although one does not always have to accept it. But criticism of Israel must not cross the line into negation of the state of Israel’s right to exist.” He warned of the line between criticism and antisemitism. “Questioning the Jewish people’s right to self-determination is not legitimate diplomacy, it is antisemitism. Vilifying and attacking Jews, whether in Israel, in the United States, or anywhere in the world is antisemitism,” he said. At least five progressive members boycotted Herzog’s speech, including Reps. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (N.Y.), CORI BUSH (Mo.), RASHIDA TLAIB (Mich.) and ILHAN OMAR (Minn.). Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (Wash.), who days prior had called Israel a “racist state” and apologized after her remarks drew bipartisan condemnation, missed the speech due to scheduling conflicts, a spokesperson said. BOB WON’T BUDGE: SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) won’t lift his hold on selling F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, Defense News’ BRYANT HARRIS reports. “I’ve always said that the ratification of Sweden, which should naturally occur, is not the sine qua non of why I would lift the hold on F-16s,” Menendez said today. “There’s bigger issues than just that alone.” Menendez’s comments come after the Biden administration said it would move forward with the sale following Ankara’s handshake agreement to welcome Sweden into NATO.
| | | |   | | | | | WHERE’S QIN: Former Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG hasn’t been seen in three weeks, and Beijing doesn’t want Washington to worry about it, the Wall Street Journal’s LINGLING WEI reports. Last seen on June 25, Qin missed several meetings with key U.S. officials in recent weeks, including one with Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and U.S. climate envoy JOHN KERRY. His absence was particularly felt when he skipped out on a meeting with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN at a gathering of foreign ministers in Indonesia last week, when top Chinese diplomat WANG YI took his place. Wang said Qin missed out due to “health reasons.” The situation conjures up “the image of a duck swimming in relation to China’s bureaucratic politics — serene above the water and violent kicking below it,” RYAN HASS, a former adviser on China and Asia at the National Security Council during the Obama administration, told WSJ.
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: TOD SEDGWICK is joining Foreign Policy for America as chair of its board of directors, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He served as the U.S. ambassador to Slovakia from 2010 to 2015.
| | — MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, POLITICO: Revolutionary tactics will require using one group of Kremlin gangsters against another — HUGH HEWITT, The Washington Post: Enough, Sen. Tuberville. It isn’t ‘pro-life’ to damage military lives. — PHYLLIS BENNIS, The Nation: On Israel and Palestine, U.S. electeds are out of touch with their own voters
| | — House Select Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and CCP Committee, 8 a.m.: The Biden administration's PRC strategy — Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: After Vilnius: what's next on Ukraine's path to NATO — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9 a.m.: Hearing on the nomination of Air Force Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH to be general and director of the NSA, chief of the Central Security Service and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The DOJ’s implementation of the Biden administration's national cybersecurity strategy — Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: Minority rights in Iran: discrimination and patterns of repression — Hudson Institute, 1 p.m.: Sharpening the Air Force's cyber and spectrum edge Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whose leadership of this newsletter is always under threat from our daily mutinies. We also thank our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who we would never revolt against.
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