News : Flip this House

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Flip this House

Jul 19, 2023

By Lara Korte, Dustin Gardiner and Sejal Govindarao

Presented by Connected Commerce Council

John Duarte listening during a meeting.

Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) takes part in the House Natural Resources Committee organizational meeting on Capitol Hill on Feb. 1, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

DRIVING THE DAY: SUMMER OF LABOR — Los Angeles’ ongoing strikes are forcing everyone to adjust their programming. That includes the Democratic Governors Association, which had to move the venue of their July conference because of the hotel workers’ strike. POLITICO’s Alexander Nieves has more on that below.

THE BUZZ — A Democratic roadmap for retaking the House from the Republicans runs right through California. A GOP plan for holding power does, too.

It’s early in the 2024 election cycle, but swing districts in the Golden State have already landed high on the target lists for both parties. California Republicans have managed to flip five seats in the last two cycles: the exact margin of the majority led by Bakersfield’s own Kevin McCarthy.

The California GOP is salivating over the chance to reclaim Orange County, where Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has reigned for three cycles. Democrats, on their end, are fighting to plant their flags in moderate districts held by Republicans with narrow margins, like Rep. Mike Garcia.

And there’s a good chance the path to the majority runs not just through California, but through the Central Valley, where one of those key matchups is already coming into focus.

Chief POLITICO polling analyst and race handicapping savant Steven Shepard mapped out the landscape of California districts to keep an eye on. Here’s where things stand:

MOST COMPETITIVE

CA-13: Rep. John Duarte (R) — The freshman Republican was able to flip the Central Valley district his way last year despite a D+14 voter registration and Joe Biden holding an 11 point lead with voters there in 2020. Duarte’s win, though narrow, was one of the five that pushed the GOP into a House majority.

Democrat Adam Gray, who lost to Duarte by a painfully close 564 votes, is eyeing another run. He has filed election paperwork but has yet to officially launch a campaign.

CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R) — As we mentioned Tuesday in Playbook, Democratic challenger Rudy Salas is also looking for a Central Valley rematch. Valadao, who held onto the seat despite being one of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump, ended the cycle with just a three-point lead over Salas.

Registration in the district is D+17, with voters there going for Biden by more than 13 points.

CA-27: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) — Garcia won by a significantly larger margin than his Central Valley peers, beating Democrat Christy Smith by just over six points. The district, which includes Santa Clarita and Lancaster, north of Los Angeles, went for Biden by 12.7 points in 2020, and has a D+13 tilt. The Democratic candidate that’s gotten the biggest buzz in the district is George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.

NARROWLY FAVORING ONE PARTY

CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter (D) — This long-held jewel of the California Democratic Party is in play this cycle, and the GOP is eager to flip. Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter last cycle by just 3.4 points, is looking to get back on the ballot and betting he can knock down the Dem that runs in Porter’s stead as she looks to higher office.

Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is out in front, continuing to rack up endorsements, including from Porter herself, despite a run-in with the law earlier this year. Challenger Joanna Weiss has also gained some attention from area Democrats.

The district does favor Democrats, per Steven’s analysis, but Republicans could make inroads. Orange County is notoriously purple, and leans just slightly to the left with D+2.

CA-41: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) — Calvert faced a lot of doubts when redistricting pulled a big swath of Palm Springs into his realm. But he came out ahead of Democrat Will Rollins by 5 points after a protracted vote-counting period.

Rollins, who was at new member orientation when he got the news he lost, is already jumping back in. It’s not that the district got more blue in the redistricting process, it just got slightly less red. If you squint, you can see Dems pulling slightly ahead in registration (D+0.6), and while voters there did go for Trump by 1 point, that’s down from 7.6 points in the pre-redistricting.

Among the other districts where Steven says one party is narrowly holding onto an advantage: Republicans in CA-03 (Kevin Kiley) and CA-45 (Michelle Steel), and Democrats in CA-09 (Josh Harder) and CA-49 (Mike Levin).

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

SPOTTED: Fox 40’s Elex Michaelson getting the full luxury coverboy treatment in Beverly Hills Lifestyle Magazine. The outlet praised him as a “beacon of light in journalism.”

QUOTE TO NOTE: “It was a very short consulting contract. It was fully disclosed and I never had any role overseeing or monitoring the entity that I worked for.” Rep. Katie Porter responding to a question about POLITICO’s recent report.

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FRESH INK

Jamie Court, president of nonprofit Consumer Watchdog, talks about oil refiners during a news conference on Aug. 5, 2015, in Santa Monica, Calif. | (AP Photo/Nick Ut)

HOLDING COURT — Jamie Court, the knife-fighting consumer advocate with an enemy’s list longer than the California coastline, is issuing his first endorsement for Congress in his more than 30 years on the grind.

And it’s the most Jamie Court thing ever.

In the 800-word (plus eight long footnotes) endorsement for the seat of Rep. Adam Schiff, who is running for Senate, Court opens with cursory praise for his preferred candidate, Assemblymember Laura Friedman, describing her as a “forthright and principled fighter for consumers and the environment.”

But Court uses infinitely more real estate — a dozen paragraphs to be precise! — assailing Friedman’s Democratic rivals, state Sen. Anthony Portantino and former Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer. Court doesn’t hold back, dismissing the pair of longtime public servants as representing “the worst of California politics.”

“I feel duty bound to speak out against their candidacies,” he wrote.

Portantino, whose cash on hand is double that of Friedman’s, declined to comment. Feuer could not be reached.

We’re not gonna get into all of Court’s issues with them. You can read the screed for yourselves here. But the sheer amount of score-settling makes this one of the most unique “endorsements” issued in the Golden State in quite some time.

— Christopher Cadelago

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: OAKLAND ENDORSEMENTS — CA-12 candidate Tim Sanchez is rolling out House endorsements as the race to replace Rep. Barbara Lee intensifies. Democratic California Reps. Lou Correa and Linda Sanchez, along with Rep. Andrea Salinas, are backing Sanchez — underscoring that BART board member Lateefah Simon is facing serious competition despite consolidating local support.

CHANGE OF PLANS — The Democratic Governors Association’s annual summer conference is getting a last-minute venue change thanks to the Southern California hotel strike.

Organizers managed to secure a spot for the two-day event starting Monday at the Westin Bonaventure in downtown Los Angeles. That gets them out of a commitment with the Beverly Hilton — one of 61 hotels where workers have been holding intermittent strikes since their contract expired last month.

That news will come as a relief to the dozen state leaders who faced the prospect of alienating labor unions Democrats count among their biggest supporters. Gov. Gavin Newsom already said he would bow out rather than cross a picket line.

The roughly 10-mile move from Beverly Hills to downtown is a significant political win for Unite Here Local 11.

“We commend the DGA for doing the moral thing and respecting the workers,” said Kurt Petersen, the union’s co-president. Hotel negotiators have accused Unite Here Local 11 of failing to bargain in good faith, while union leaders are threatening to continue the rolling walkouts.

— Alexander Nieves

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WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

— “Nancy Pelosi is still raising money like someone running for re-election,” by the Sand Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli: “Lawrence said that ‘my personal experience with Nancy Pelosi is that she makes career decisions pretty close to the vest and does not share those decisions with even close allies. So, she certainly is not going to telescope a decision months out — through fundraisers. I think this is, as always, her keeping options open.’”

— “Feinstein says late husband's trust not paying her medical bills, asks court for more control,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Benjamin Oreskes: “After acute health problems that kept her away from Washington for months earlier this year, Sen. Dianne Feinstein is now engaged in a legal effort to gain more control of the finances from her late husband’s trust.”

— “Silicon Valley Money Men Are Buzzing About Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Angel Au-Yeung: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says childhood vaccines are linked to autism and that the Central Intelligence Agency killed his uncle. He has wondered out loud whether Wi-Fi exposure leads to cancer. Some of tech’s big stars are praising his campaign for president.”

— “He was making a documentary about police brutality. Then the LAPD tased him in his home,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Noah Goldberg: “Smith says when police arrived at his home late at night, officers tased him — not the burglar. They then placed him in the back of a squad car. He was released not long after, but not before being humiliated in front of his neighbors. He has now filed a civil lawsuit against the Los Angeles Police Department.”

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TRANSITIONS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SPEAKER’S SPEAKER — Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas has named Cynthia Morena as his new press secretary. A former journalist, Morena most recently worked with the Sierra Health Foundation and earlier in the Legislature as communications director for former state Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson.

— State Treasurer Fiona Ma has appointed Stephanie Tom and Khaim Morton as deputy treasurers.

BIRTHDAYS

Google’s Maria Giannopoulos … former Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) … Stephanie Valencia

WAS TUESDAY: Jan Allen

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