😎The Odds of a 2023 Recession Keep Declining, But Watch Out For this Event Next Year…

Good morning, and Happy Independence Day! Following a strong first half to the year, investors...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning, and Happy Independence Day! Following a strong first half to the year, investors may be thinking that the uptrend will continue. A rising number of economists predict that a recession may be off the table this year. However, looking to the end of 2024, we could see the real danger from the past year's series of interest rates hikes. That's because in 18 months, many junk-rated companies will have to refinance their debt at rates several times higher than what they last issued debt. Or pay it off. That could lead to a mini credit crisis similar to this year's problem with small and regional banks. For now, traders and investors alike should look at the balance sheets of their smaller cap stocks to determine which will most need to hit up the credit markets next year. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Protect Your Savings Now! Time is running out to safeguard your money. The fed's alarming new program to control Americans' bank accounts is underway. They now possess the power to monitor every transaction and freeze accounts at their discretion. Don't wait until it's too late. Watch This Video to Learn Three Essential Steps That can Shield Your Savings. Act now! MARKETS DOW 34,418.47 +0.03% S&P 4,455.59 +0.12% NASDAQ 13,816.77 +0.21% *As of market close • Stocks traded slightly higher on Monday, in a short session before the holiday. • Oil dropped 1.3 percent, closing at $69.74 per barrel. • Gold traded flat, at $1,930 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies rose, with bitcoin at $31,018 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS Don't Overthink the Power of Buying a Strong Brand Out of Favor When it comes to investing, investors are often their own worst enemy. A falling market may lead to fear, and cause someone to sell when it's a great time to buy. Likewise, a one-time earnings report may not mean much in the long haul, but it could create a buying opportunity. That's particularly true with regards to companies that have strong brands. That's because the long-term power of owning a great brand pays out over time. » FULL STORY Insider Activity Report: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), a major holder of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), continues to accumulate shares. Last week saw a 2,137,250 share buy, valued at $122.1 million. That's the first buy in nearly a month, following multiple buys in May. Berkshire, run by Warren Buffett, now owns over 25 percent of the oil company, and has permission from regulators to buy up to 50 percent of shares. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: JD.com (JD) Chinese internet retailer JD.com (JD) has seen its shares get cut nearly in half over the past year. One trader is betting on a further decline in the coming weeks. That's based on the August $50 puts. With 45 days until expiration, 27,488 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 137, for a whopping 201-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $15.90. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Recession Odds Pushed Out Further Traders continue to expect a recession hit the United States. But now it's more likely among participants that such a recession would occur in 2024. The move could be global in nature, or specific to a downturn specifically in the United States. So far, the economy has bucked the impact of higher interest rates, as seen with rising GDP and a strong labor market. • Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Loan Forgiveness The United States Supreme Court has struck down a proposal from the Biden Administration to forgive a big chunk of student loan debt. Student loan payments are finally set to resume following their suspension during the pandemic, and some see the potential for a rise in delinquencies and defaults. • Commercial Real Estate Becomes Contrarian Bet While the overall real estate market has fared well in the past few years, commercial real estate, particularly office space, has been out of favor. That's because the rise of remote and hybrid office work has reduced demand in many key markets. The decline in commercial real estate plays may be overdone at this point, however, and may be a reasonable contrarian play from here. • Tesla Deliveries Rise Amid Price Cuts Tesla Motors (TSLA) has seen deliveries rise 83 percent in the most recent quarter, with 466,000 sales in the three-month period ending in June. The carmaker's deliveries come at a time when competition for EV models is surging higher, and the automaker has had to cut prices several times to maintain market share. • Goldman Seeking Exit from Apple Card Partnership Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) may be seeking an exit to its partnership with Apple (AAPL) for the Apple Card. The bank has been looking for alternatives to the investment it made four years ago in recent months, and may look to sell the stake to payments company American Express (AXP). S&P 500 MOVERS TOP TSLA  6.895% FIS 6.033% ZION 4.766% CMA 3.872% WBD 3.748% BOTTOM EW 3.011% EFX 2.622% STE 2.596% ALGN 2.559% IDXX 2.399% Quote of the Day The technicals are telling us that this ubercap-led rally has just been overextended. It's been hitting those overbought levels and we believe it's time for that trade to kind of take a pause. - Anna Han, equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, on why the market will likely trend sideways over the next few weeks as traders shift out of overbought tech names and into more undervalued opportunities. Sponsored Content Protect Your Savings Now! Time is running out to safeguard your money. The fed's alarming new program to control Americans' bank accounts is underway. They now possess the power to monitor every transaction and freeze accounts at their discretion. Don't wait until it's too late. Watch This Video to Learn Three Essential Steps That can Shield Your Savings. Act now! Not sure the best way to get started? 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