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| Presented By Meta |
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| Axios Sneak Peek |
| By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 14, 2022 |
| Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,094 words ... 4 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp will testify to the Fulton County special grand jury investigating former President Trump and his allies' efforts to overturn the 2020 election, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. 💰 Join Axios tomorrow at 8am ET in Washington, D.C., for an event with Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein. Register here to attend in person or virtually. |
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| 1 big thing: GOP civil war |
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| Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell returns to the Capitol today. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images |
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| A Republican civil war is erupting at virtually every level of the party, triggered by an underwhelming midterm performance that threatens to destabilize the ranks of Senate, House and national GOP leadership, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Why it matters: This is only the beginning. Election disappointments always lead to recriminations, but the feuds now roiling the GOP run far deeper than conventional policy disagreements. And with an entrenched leader like former President Trump planning his comeback announcement for tomorrow, there's little chance for peace talks. What's happening: Trump lashed out at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last week, as conservative media — including the Murdoch-owned Fox News, New York Post and Wall Street Journal opinion section — became rife with talk of DeSantis overtaking him as the most viable 2024 GOP presidential nominee. - The conservative Club for Growth, once a staunch Trump ally, sent a warning shot on the eve of Trump's likely 2024 announcement by commissioning a new poll showing he trails DeSantis by double-digits in Iowa and New Hampshire, Politico scooped.
- That follows a national YouGov poll released Friday that found 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaners prefer DeSantis to be the nominee, compared to 35% for Trump, with similar figures in Texas reported today in a poll commissioned by the Texas GOP.
In the Senate, a Wall Street Journal story detailing the poisonous relationship between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) featured stunning on-the-record quotes from both offices blaming each other for the midterm debacle. - Scott has been joined by Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in calling for leadership elections to be delayed, with Hawley tweeting: "The old party is dead. Time to bury it. Build something new."
- Scott himself has left the door open to challenging McConnell for the leadership role, though the Kentucky Republican insists he has the votes to win.
In the House, right-wing Freedom Caucus members are plotting a challenge to GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in his bid to be elected House leader tomorrow. - But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said today that challenging McCarthy is "risky" and a "bad strategy" — breaking with her far-right allies and revealing new divisions even within the Trump wing of the party.
What we're watching: Brendan Buck, a former aide to House Speaker Paul Ryan and John Boehner, floated a hypothetical scenario in which a challenger defeats Trump in the 2024 GOP primary. "What then are the chances Trump wouldn't entirely sabotage that person in the general election?" Buck tweeted. Share this story. |
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| 2. 🇺🇦 Scoop: New Ukraine aid pressure |
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| Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios |
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| A coalition of more than a dozen powerful conservative groups is pressing lawmakers to delay consideration of any additional aid to Ukraine until the new Congress is sworn in next year, Axios' Andrew Solender has learned. Why it matters: It's an early indication of the pressure Republicans are expected to face from some of their most influential grassroots allies to use a House majority as a bulwark against the flow of American aid money to Ukraine. What they're saying: In a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the conservative groups urged the House leaders "not to rush through another large assistance package for Ukraine during the lame-duck session." - "Any new aid package to Ukraine should be thoroughly debated, examined, and voted on in the 118th Congress," they wrote.
- The organizations represented in the letter include Americans for Prosperity, the Heritage Foundation, FreedomWorks, Conservative Partnership Institute, America First Policy Institute and several groups within the Koch network.
Yes, but: The results of last Tuesday's midterms were a blow to candidates who are solidly in the isolationist wing of the party. - Many House candidates who voiced opposition to Ukraine aid, such as John Gibbs of Michigan, Karoline Leavitt of New Hampshire and J.R. Majewski of Ohio, lost their races after underperforming more establishment Republicans.
- It wasn't a total loss, however: two senators who have been firm supporters of Ukraine aid, Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), are set to be replaced by Republicans who have expressed far greater skepticism.
Keep reading. |
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| 3. 🏆 Dems' toss-up dominance |
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| Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) celebrates with supporters at her re-election party last week. Photo: Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images |
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| Democrats won or are leading in 25 out of the 36 "toss-up" races identified by the Cook Political Report, a key factor in the party's success stanching the "red wave": - Solid D: 159/159 (100%)
- Likely D: 13/13 (100%)
- Lean D: 15/15 (100%)
- Toss-up: 25/36 (69%)
- Lean R: 1/13 (8%)
- Likely R: 0/11 (0%)
- Solid R: 0/188 (0%)
Between the lines: The sole Republican to lose in a "lean R" district was Trump-backed candidate Joe Kent. FiveThirtyEight's election simulator had Kent's Democratic opponent, Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez, winning just 2 out of 100 times. |
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| A message from Meta |
| Future surgeons will get hands-on practice in the metaverse |
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| Surgeons will engage in countless hours of additional low-risk practice in the metaverse. The impact: Patients undergoing complex care will know their doctors are as prepared as possible. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. |
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| 4. 🎤 Lincoln Project founders' next move |
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| Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios |
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| Two network news veterans and key players from the Lincoln Project are teaming up to launch a "pro-democracy" media company on the same day that Donald Trump is expected to announce his 2024 bid, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports. Why it matters: The founders of the new website, Resolute Square, say they aim to counter the right-wing media ecosystem — and be a home to people who reject political extremism and the GOP. Driving the news: The website will launch tomorrow at noon. The four Lincoln Project advisers involved will hold their first "strategy call" video livestream to analyze Trump's campaign announcement that evening. - The group won't describe itself as a "news organization," said Stuart Stevens, a veteran Republican strategist and senior adviser to the Lincoln Project, because it wants no "obligations to tell both sides of a lie."
- "We're going to proudly declare we're all bias, all the time. All bias of democracy," he added. "One of the slogans we're using is, 'We're right, they're wrong.'"
Keep reading. |
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| 5. 👀 Quote du jour |
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| Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images |
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| Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo) — who represents the Trumpiest state in the country, according to 2020 election results — told Politico's Burgess Everett when asked if she would endorse Trump: "I don't think that's the right question. I think the question is who is the current leader of the Republican Party. Oh, I know who it is: Ron DeSantis." |
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| A message from Meta |
| Building more efficient cities will be possible with the metaverse |
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| In the metaverse, urban planners will bring their designs to life and collaborate with engineers, architects and public officials in real time — paving the way for less congested cities. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. |
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| 📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. |
 | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | |
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