| | | | | | | Presented By Babbel | | | | Axios World | | By Dave Lawler · Nov 14, 2022 | | Welcome back to Axios World. - Tonight's edition (1,987 words, 7½ minutes) kicks off in Kherson, with stops in Bali, Tehran, Istanbul and more.
Situational awareness: The FBI has opened an investigation into the death of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was killed in May while covering an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, Israeli officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid. Tell a friend to subscribe. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Kherson's fall sets up critical winter |  | | | Zelensky this morning in Kherson. Photo: Ukrainian Army/Anadolu Agency via Getty | | | | Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, flanked by soldiers, sang the national anthem in central Kherson today as a Ukrainian flag was raised over the city — the only regional capital that had fallen to Russia since February's invasion. Why it matters: The Russian surrender of Kherson is the culmination of a four-month Ukrainian counteroffensive, and a major blow to Russian President Putin, who just weeks earlier had declared Kherson an integral part of Russia "forever." Kherson's liberation comes as winter sets in and officials in Kyiv, Moscow and Washington prepare for the next phase of the war. - "The price of this victory" in Kherson is "very high" in terms of casualties, but it marked "the beginning of the end of the war," Zelensky contended today.
- Zelensky's appearance in Kherson — and the celebratory scenes as residents emerged from eight months of occupation — have been broadcast around the world as leaders gather for a G20 summit at which there is one notable absentee: Putin.
- Putin's spokesperson insisted today that Kherson "is part of the Russian Federation" — a claim that hardly makes losing the city easier to swallow.
On the one hand: The retreat was a major blow for the Kremlin, puts Ukrainian forces close to or within artillery range of parts of occupied Crimea, and takes Russia's broader objective of controlling Ukraine's entire coastline off the table, at least for the time being, says Dara Massicot, a Russia analyst at the Rand Corporation. On the other: Russia is pummeling Ukraine's energy infrastructure as the weather turns cold, and it will reinforce its lines over the winter with the estimated 300,000 conscripts it called up this fall. - Having pulled out of Kherson, Moscow's strategy "now seems to be to extend the war," says Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia's military at CNA.
State of play: President Biden has said the fall of Kherson and the arrival of winter will give both sides a chance to "lick their wounds" and decide whether to "compromise." - His top general, Mark Milley, went a step further by saying winter could present a window for peace talks. Others in the administration continue to emphasize the need to help Ukraine to keep the pressure on militarily.
Zelensky made clear that Ukraine has no intentions of pressing pause. - Despite heavy losses in the push on Kherson, Ukraine's forces are highly motivated and intent on targeting Russia's weak units, as in the recent Kharkiv offensive, or weak positions, as in Kherson, says Massicot.
- Winter weather will likely limit the scope of such operations for now.
The other side: "Russia's strategy is to entrench, try to defend over the next several months, and focus on rebuilding its forces to see if they can restore offensive potential in the spring," Kofman says. - Penned in by the broad Dnieper River after advancing Ukrainian forces destroyed all bridges into Kherson but one, Russian forces faced two options: "controlled retreat or catastrophic encirclement," says Massicot.
- Putin left it to his defense minister and top military commander to explain the retreat last week. Kremlin-aligned pundits have portrayed the move as a temporary necessity to save Russian lives, but frustration has crept into the state TV commentary, and some nationalist bloggers are fuming.
- Having abandoned Kherson, Russia's forces are taking up defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnieper.
 What to watch: The next phase of the war could hinge on Russia's success in integrating its new conscripts. - "Russia's front line just consolidated because they left Kherson, and at the same time, they're adding additional personnel. So if they use them appropriately, which is a big if, they can create multiple defensive lines and really dig in over the winter," Massicot says.
- But thus far conscription has appeared "chaotic," and many of the conscripts are likely to be ill-trained, ill-equipped and unmotivated, she adds.
|     | | | | | | 2. Biden and Xi meet at G20 |  | | | President Biden and China's President Xi meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali today. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images | | | | President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed during a meeting today to establish regular channels of communication between key officials and to carefully manage the U.S.-China relationship going forward, Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reports from Bali, Indonesia. Why it matters: The meeting, held on the sidelines of the G20 summit, marked the first time the two leaders have met since Biden became president. It seems to have accomplished the Biden administration's stated goal of establishing guardrails to responsibly manage competition between the two superpowers. What they're saying: The two leaders "agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts on these and other issues," according to the White House readout. - Xi acknowledged that the state of U.S.-China relations are "not what the international community expects from us," according to Beijing's readout, and must be put "on an upward trajectory."
- Biden and Xi agreed on a future visit to China by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to follow up on today's meeting.
What's next: The summit officially kicks off tomorrow, with all but two of the 20 major economies to be represented at the leader level. - Outgoing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro sent his foreign minister and Putin elected to stay home rather than take part in a tense diplomatic showdown with the Western powers over Ukraine.
| | | | | | | | 3. Data du jour: There are 8 billion of us |  Data: World Population Review; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals 8 billion humans are living on planet Earth — a milestone officially being recognized Tuesday by the UN, Axios' Stef Kight writes. Why it matters: People are living longer, with generally better access to health care, food, clean water and sanitation than in past generations. A smaller share of humans live in extreme poverty. - There are still challenges — ongoing ramifications from the pandemic, a record number of forcibly displaced people and worsening climate change.
"It is a momentous milestone for humanity," Natalia Kanem, executive director of the UN Population Fund, told reporters last month. - "Some express concerns that our world is overpopulated with far too many people and insufficient resources to sustain their lives. I am here to say clearly that the sheer number of human lives is not a cause for fear."
By the numbers: Earth's population has doubled since 1974. - Population growth has slowed: It took 12 years for the global population to climb from 7 billion to 8 billion, according to the UN. Earth will not reach 9 billion for about 15 years.
- Half of the population still lives in just seven countries: China, India, the U.S., Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Brazil. India's population could surpass China's at any day.
Go deeper with an interactive map. | | | | | | | | A message from Babbel | | Language lessons you can use in the real world | | |  | | | | Language learning platform Babbel offers 10-minute lessons that are proven to help users learn a new language in just three weeks. How it's done: Instead of random phrases, you'll learn to hold real-world conversations with expert-curated lessons and more. Get up to 55% off your subscription | | | | | | Bonus: Where in the world? |  | | | Screenshot via Apple Maps | | | | Tonight, we're taking a Caribbean tour of nine cities. - We'll stop in seven capital cities (1–7) and then finish by checking out the walled city (8) and beach resorts (9) of two major tourism hubs.
- For inspiration for your playlist... we're visiting the hometowns of Gloria Estefan (1), Bob Marley (2), Daddy Yankee (5) and Rihanna (6).
More hints: Spanish is the primary language at every stop except 6 and 3, the latter of which shares an island but not a primary language with 4. - 5 is the capital of a commonwealth, not a country.
- 7 is one of the biggest cities we'll visit, but its population has shrunk in recent years.
Note: The cities are near the bottom left corners of the numbered boxes. Scroll to the bottom for the answers. | | | | | | | | 4. Global news roundup |  | | | Protests in Mexico City on Saturday against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposed electoral reforms. Photo: Marco Rodriguez/Eyepix Group/Future Publishing via Getty | | | | 1. An Iranian court sentenced a protester to death for what a Tehran judiciary-linked website said Sunday was connected to "riots" following weeks of demonstrations against Iran's ruling party. - The big picture: It's believed to be the first death penalty issued in response to the protests, which erupted following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.
2. China's government eased some pandemic measures, including reducing quarantine periods for travelers and close contacts of people infected with COVID-19 and ending penalties on airlines for bringing virus cases into the country. 3. Nicaragua is now effectively a single-party state after President Daniel Ortega's Sandinista party won all 153 municipalities in local elections. Opposition parties were banned, and all major opposition leaders are in prison or in exile. 4. Ethiopia's government and Tigrayan rebels announced in a joint statement on Saturday that they had agreed to facilitate humanitarian access to Tigray and surrounding regions affected by the country's civil war. - Meanwhile, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta is in Kinshasa to facilitate talks between the DRC government and armed rebel groups.
5. U.S. intelligence officials have compiled a report on efforts by the UAE to meddle in U.S. politics, WaPo's John Hudson reports. | | | | | | | | 5. Turkey rejects U.S. condolences over Istanbul attack |  | | | Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu (stooping with flowers) at the scene of the attack in Istanbul. Photo: Arife Karakum/Anadolu Agency via Getty | | | | Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu today rejected the condolences the U.S. offered following this weekend's deadly attack in Istanbul and accused Washington of complicity. Driving the news: Six people were killed and more than 80 wounded on Sunday in the deadliest attack in Turkey in five years. The Turkish government arrested a suspect, who authorities claim was sent by Kurdish militants in Syria to commit the attack. - Soylu pointed the finger specifically at the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), two Kurdish groups that Turkey's government effectively views as part of a terrorist organization.
- The PKK denied involvement and said it does not target civilians. An SDF spokesperson also denied any role in the attack.
The big picture: The U.S. also considers the PKK — which advocates for Kurdish autonomy and has a long history of conducting attacks inside Turkey — to be a terrorist group. Washington outraged its Turkish allies by working closely with the SDF in the successful campaign against ISIS in Syria. - After the Biden administration expressed condolences, Soylu said that was like "the murderer arriving as one of the first at the scene of the crime."
- A State Department spokesperson told Axios the U.S. "stands in solidarity with Turkey, our valued NATO ally" but is "deeply disappointed by any irresponsible comments to suggest that the United States had any role or responsibility in this despicable attack on Turkish citizens."
| | | | | | | | 6. What I'm reading: "Sources of Russian Misconduct" |  | | | Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios | | | | Boris Bondarev became a Russian diplomat in 2002 at a time of relatively cordial relations with the West. Flash forward: He resigned in May from Russia's mission in Geneva, the only senior diplomat to publicly break with Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine. "For me, one of the invasion's central lessons had to do with something I had witnessed over the preceding two decades: what happens when a government is slowly warped by its own propaganda," Bondarev writes in the new edition of Foreign Affairs. - Putin finds Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov "'comfortable' to work with, always saying yes to the president and telling him what he wants to hear," Bondarev writes. He consistently found that "Moscow wanted to be told what it hoped to be true."
- Bondarev says he was warned not to contradict or correct anything that came from the Kremlin, even obvious typos. Meanwhile, colleagues who filled their cables with non sequiturs attacking the U.S., or absurd claims about having outsmarted their foreign counterparts, were promoted.
- After the invasion, "I walked around our building ... and noticed that even some of my smart colleagues had Russian propaganda playing on their televisions all day. It was as if they were trying to indoctrinate themselves."
Read the piece | | | | | | | | 7. Stories we're watching |  | | | One of several works by Banksy that have popped up in Ukraine. This one is in Borodyanka. Photo: Ed Ram/Getty Images | | | - What to watch at the G20
- UN General Assembly calls for Russia to pay Ukraine reparations
- Foreign officials spent "hundreds of thousands" at Trump's D.C. hotel
- Emissions on track for all-time high
- Biden unveils tougher methane rules; Says U.S. "on track" to meet Paris commitment
- The world is getting older
- Zambia seeks answers from Russia over death in Ukraine
Quoted: "The Zambian Government has requested the Russian authorities to urgently provide information on the circumstances under which a Zambian citizen, serving a prison sentence in Moscow, could have been recruited to fight in Ukraine and subsequently lose his life." — Zambian Foreign Minister Stanley Kakubo on the case of Lemekhani Nathan Nyirenda, a 23-year-old who traveled to Russia to study engineering and was arrested and jailed in 2020 and somehow ended up dying on the front lines in Ukraine. | | | | | | | | A message from Babbel | | Say "ja" to learning a new language | | |  | | | | Babbel has what you need to learn how to hold real-world conversations in Dutch, Spanish and more. Learn through: - Expert-curated lessons.
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Speak a new language in as little as three weeks. | | | | Answers: 1. Havana; 2. Kingston; 3. Port-au-Prince; 4. Santo Domingo; 5. San Juan; 6. Bridgetown; 7. Caracas; 8. Cartagena; 9. Cancun. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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