🏠 Wealth creation for renters

Plus: Gig workers' latest ally | Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Goldman Sachs   Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Oct 12, 2022 Good morning. Another day of financial thrills and spills awaits. Let's get to it. 🚨 The Axios BFD, our inaugural dealmaker summit, will take place Wed., Oct. 26, in NYC ... Hear from Mark Cuban; NYSE president Lynn Martin; ESPN chair James Pitaro and more. Want to attend? Request an invite. Today's newsletter is 1,143 words, 4.5 minutes.     1 big thing: A plan for getting housing wealth to renters Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Building wealth via homeownership is a time-tested American tradition. Now a new project is trying to replicate that mechanism in the rental market, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Why it matters: Most people who rent homes in the U.S. do so because they're priced out of the housing market. That excludes them from the forced-savings device that is a mortgage. What they're saying: "Our hope is if it's successful, this becomes a new form of ESG investment, and a new way to look at rentership," Priscilla Almodovar, the outgoing CEO of Enterprise Community Partners, which built this project, tells Axios exclusively. (Almodovar is about to start a new job as the CEO of Fannie Mae.) "We've set this up so that over 10 years it simulates what the median homeowner might have experienced." The big picture: The Renter Wealth Creation Fund, run by Enterprise, expects to take roughly half of the housing appreciation on some $1 billion of rental property and give it to long-term renters. How it works: Enterprise, and its investors, will work with sponsors who will put up millions of dollars of their own money to buy rental developments with the aid of loans from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration, and others. All of the projects will be affordable housing, with priority given to those targeting households earning 80% of median income or less. The payout: At the end of the lifespan of about 8-10 years for each project, the property will be sold or refinanced, with a target total return of 10% per year. Investors in the Renter Wealth Creation Fund will receive a 4% return, plus 20% of the excess return over that — an estimated 5% in all. The other 80% of returns above 4% — the remaining 5% per year — will be given to renters who rented for at least four years. Between the lines: While a 4% return is relatively modest for property investors, Enterprise has lined up foundations and family offices that concentrate on impact investing. Pencil it out: The average American renter has a much lower total 10-year housing cost (about $210,000, in current dollars) than the average homeowner ($440,000), according to data from Zillow. But thanks to home-price appreciation and the fact that mortgage principal is paid down over time, homeowners end up building roughly $190,000 in home equity over that time. Under the Enterprise model, the renter paying $210,000 in rent would end up getting a check for about $55,000. The bottom line: This model is new, and therefore unproven. But if it works, it could revolutionize affordability for those who need it most. Go deeper.     2. Catch up quick 💸 Federal officials trade stock in companies their agencies oversee, an investigation finds. (WSJ) 🏦 Gilts sell off as Bank of England reiterates it will end bond-buying plan. (FT) 💻 Intel plans thousands of job cuts amid PC slowdown. (Bloomberg)     3. Gig workers catch a break Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   Score one for the gig workers, Emily writes. They've won the latest round in the yearslong back-and-forth over whether or not they count as employees under federal labor law and are entitled to earn federal minimum wage and overtime. Driving the news: The Labor Department on Tuesday announced a new rule that makes it more likely that gig workers get classified as employees — the latest pro-labor turn from the Biden administration. Background: App companies like Uber and Lyft generally classify their drivers as "independent contractors," arguing that workers have flexibility and control over when and where they work. A previous rule from the Trump Labor Department lined up with this reasoning. The Trump-era Labor board also pointed to the fact that workers buy their own cars — capital investments in their work — as evidence of their entrepreneurial standing. State of play: In its new proposal, the Biden Labor Department says those Trump-era guidelines were too narrow. The Trump rule didn't take into account other ways companies can control workers in the workplace — for example, by specifying what they can charge customers or by closely monitoring their work. The impact: "We're hoping this will change lots of business practices," Laura Padin, director of work structures at the National Employment Law Project, tells Axios. "There's a lot in there that would justify finding app-based workers to be employees," she said, adding it would give the Labor Department strong footing to bring action against these companies. Yes, but: It's hardly an open-and-shut case. The rule still has to go through a comment period before it's finalized — and could be challenged in court. Go deeper.     A message from Goldman Sachs Top execs in media and tech share the trends to watch     Leaders and pioneers from telecoms, media and technology convened at Goldman Sachs' biggest conference, Communacopia + Tech 2022, to discuss the trends to track in 2023 and beyond. Where do they think innovation will drive growth? We've captured the conversations. Watch here.     4. Germany's incredible shrinking trade surplus Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals Germany's once-massive trade surplus has all but melted away, as a result of surging energy costs and the weak economies of its main European trade partners, Matt writes. Why it matters: The declining surplus shows how disruptions over the last year — Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the related energy shock, and China's COVID lockdowns — are upending the basic rules of how the global economy has worked in recent decades. What they're saying: "The war in Ukraine has succeeded in delivering what nothing else had managed before: letting the notorious German trade surplus disappear," wrote Carsten Brzeski, head of global macro at ING. "Unfortunately, it is not a 'good' disappearing of the trade surplus, driven by stronger domestic demand but rather a 'bad' disappearing, driven by high energy prices and structurally weaker exports. " What to watch: Whether this is a moment in which Germany reconsiders the way its economy is structured. Since the early 1990s, Europe's largest economy has relied on exports to provide growth. Critics including Ben Bernanke say Germany has kept wages too low (limiting consumer spending), and that the government hasn't spent enough to boost the economy. Berlin could now be forced to hike domestic spending and government investment to avoid a deep and painful recession.   Share Axios and earn rewards If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. Be a good friend and share   5. Apartment demand cratering Data: RealPage Market Analysis; Note: Negative demand means more renters moved out than moved in; Chart: Axios Visuals The rental market is chilling out after an explosive run last year, Emily writes. Why it matters: Soaring rent prices have been a major driver of inflation. This could be a sign that those price pressures are starting to ease — but it could take time before the consumer price index numbers reflect the shift. State of play: Demand for new leases took a surprising tumble in the third quarter, according to data from RealPage. It's the first time in 30 years that the firm has seen negative demand for new apartments in Q3, traditionally a strong season. "Negative demand" means more folks moved out of apartments than moved in. Add this chart to some other signs that rents have peaked, as I wrote last month. What's happening: The slowdown isn't necessarily about affordability but is more to do with how folks are feeling about the economy, according to RealPage's analysis. Negative demand is a sign of a slowdown in new household formation — people holding off on moving out of their current situation, in other words.     A message from Goldman Sachs Top execs in media and tech share the trends to watch     Leaders and pioneers from telecoms, media and technology convened at Goldman Sachs' biggest conference, Communacopia + Tech 2022, to discuss the trends to track in 2023 and beyond. Where do they think innovation will drive growth? We've captured the conversations. Watch here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here! Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. 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