| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Joe Biden's visit to Portland Friday and Saturday appears primarily aimed at bucking up support for Tina Kotek among Democrats, a sizable chunk of whom appear to be considering a vote for Betsy Johnson. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BIDEN'S NORTHWEST DETOUR — It's perhaps the most precious campaign resource in all of American politics — a presidential fundraising visit. So why, with less than four weeks till Election Day, is JOE BIDEN pointing Air Force One at Oregon this weekend? Oregon hasn't elected any Republican to statewide office in 20 years, and it's been 40 years since the state picked a GOP governor. But this year, Democrats are becoming more and more concerned about key races as national and local trends take a toll. In recent weeks, election analysts have moved some of them to toss-ups — including an unusually competitive three-way race for governor. Oregon political watchers we spoke with last night noted that while their state has a true-blue reputation, its gubernatorial races have stayed relatively close in recent cycles. And this year, there's a wild card: Independent candidate BETSY JOHNSON, a moderate former Democratic state legislator, is pulling support from Democratic nominee TINA KOTEK, giving Republican nominee CHRISTINE DRAZAN a credible chance of victory. Both Johnson and Drazan are using crime and homelessness as centerpieces of their campaigns. Drazan, a former state rep, has decried Democratic Covid lockdowns and climate laws that have raised energy prices. Johnson is running as a leader "loyal only to the people of Oregon" who can break through partisan loggerheads in Salem. Biden's visit to Portland Friday and Saturday appears primarily aimed at bucking up support for Kotek among Democrats, a sizable chunk of whom appear to be considering a vote for Johnson. In a Tuesday news conference hosted by the Kotek campaign, advocates made their spoiler fears plainly known. AN DO, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Oregon, said Kotek was in "real danger" of losing, adding that "a vote for [Betsy] Johnson is a vote for an anti-choice Republican." National Dems are feeling a bit more optimistic, though they acknowledge the race is way too close for comfort. Democratic Governors Association spokesperson DAVID TURNER told Playbook on Tuesday night that Johnson's ceiling is getting "lower and lower, day by day." But the Democratic anxieties only begin with the governor's race. They might be exceeded by fears that Republicans could pick up as many as three Dem-held House seats in the state. "Oregon is going to be a battleground state this cycle for a whole host of reasons," one Democrat strategist in Oregon told us last night. "And it's definitely not a role that Oregon is used to filling." Those reasons include: 1. The challenging national landscape for Democrats; 2. No Democratic incumbents in key races; 3. Rising voter anxieties over crime and homelessness; and 4. Republicans successfully pivoting away from some of their more controversial positions. — Democrats we talked to said if we forced them to choose — and we did — the race in the 4th Congressional District is the one they feel most optimistic about. Republican ALEK SKARLATOS, who put a 2020 scare into retiring longtime Rep. PETER DeFAZIO, is taking on Democrat VAL HOYLE in this coastal district that also includes the liberal stronghold of Eugene. — In the 5th District, south of Portland, Democrats ousted seven-term moderate Rep. KURT SCHRADER in the primary in favor of progressive JAMIE McLEOD-SKINNER; the Dem-on-Dem drama has provided an opening for Republican LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER. — The newly drawn 6th District, stretching from Portland's outskirts to Salem, sees Democrat ANDREA SALINAS and Republican MIKE ERICKSON facing off in a suburban seat that Biden won by 13 points. But Erickson, who owns a logistics business, has closed the gap in part by spending more $1 million of his own money in TV ads. (While POLITICO rates it lean Democratic, Cook Political Report moved the race to toss-up Tuesday.) PRIMETIME BIDEN — In his first sit-down interview with CNN since taking office, Biden was pressed Tuesday by host JAKE TAPPER on foreign policy, the economic outlook, his son and his re-election prospects. Our colleagues over at West Wing Playbook have the story of how the interview came to be, and it's worth the read. Short version: Tapper pressed for the interview after Biden called him while he was in Ukraine "to offer some off-the-record thoughts." Highlights from the interview … On whether he'd meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN: "Look, I have no intention of meeting with him. But for example, if he came to me at the G-20 and said I want to talk about the release of [BRITTNEY GRINER], I'd meet with him. I mean, it would depend. … But look, he's acted brutally. He's acted brutally. I think he's committed war crimes. And so, I don't — I don't see any rationale to meet with him now." On Saudi Arabia's decision to slash oil production: "We should [rethink the U.S. relationship with the Saudis], and I am in the process — when the House and Senate gets back, they're going to have to — there's going to be some consequences for what they've done, with Russia. ... I'm not going to get into what I'd consider and what I have in mind. But there will be — there will be consequences." On the economic outlook: "I don't think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a very slight recession." On potential criminal charges for his son HUNTER: "Turns out that when he made [an] application to purchase a gun ... you get asked a question, are you on drugs, or do use drugs?' He said no. And he wrote about saying no in his book. … I have great confidence in my son. I love him and he's on the straight and narrow, and he has been for a couple years now. And I'm just so proud of him." On his 2024 decision: "It's a matter of, can you do the job? And I believe I can do the job. I've been able to do the job." He added: "I believe I can beat DONALD TRUMP again." Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Want to lay odds on whether Biden drops by Powell's or Voodoo Doughnut this weekend? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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| More than a week after The Daily Beast first published documented allegations that Georgia Senate candidate HERSCHEL WALKER had paid a former girlfriend to have an abortion, the story is still managing to generate headlines. The latest? "Woman says she had to press Herschel Walker to pay for abortion he wanted," from WaPo's Annie Linskey and Alice Crites, in which the woman who spoke out in the Beast's initial reports provides further details about her interactions with the former football star — including her pitch to Walker for payment: "Both of us did this. We both know how babies are made." Early evidence indicates the string of embarrassing revelations, which have undercut Walker's anti-abortion positions and advocacy for responsible fatherhood, have taken a toll: Every public poll taken in Georgia since the story broke has shown incumbent Democrat RAPHAEL WARNOCK with a lead, including three from pollsters who previously had Walker ahead. Yet Republicans appear dead-set on standing by their man. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL told CNN's Manu Raju "we're going to stick with Walker" in an interview published Tuesday, indicating that tens of millions of dollars of pending ad reservations from the McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund would remain in place. Republicans can't afford to cut bait on Georgia right now. While Nevada and Wisconsin have been looking more favorable for the GOP in recent weeks, Pennsylvania and Arizona remain just as close as strategists have long expected, while GOP candidates in Ohio and North Carolina have been unable to pull away. That leaves Walker allies with a strategy of muddying the waters and sowing doubt about Warnock in swing voters' minds. That effort took a personal turn Tuesday when 34N22, a GOP super PAC, launched ads featuring two-year-old police bodycam audio from Walker's now-ex-wife which she accuses Warnock of running over her foot with his car. Police found no evidence of any injuries, and Warnock was not charged with a crime, but that hasn't stopped Republicans from using it. BIG PICTURE MIDTERM MARKERS — As we enter the final weeks of the midterm campaign, here's a snapshot of two key indicators from our weekly POLITICO/Morning Consult polling. Toplines … Crosstabs 1) Biden's approval rating: The president sees slight upticks overall and among Democrats this week, rising from 42% to 43% and 79% to 83%, respectively. But among independents, Biden's approval dips from 33% to 29%. And Republicans' approval holds steady at 8%.
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| 2) The generic congressional ballot: The theoretical race here remains largely unchanged from last week, with Democrats still holding 46% to Republicans' 42% (down from 43% last week), with another 12% undecided.
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| WASTED YOUTH — "Shaped by gun violence and climate change, Gen Z weighs whether to vote," by WaPo's Mariana Alfaro: "Per a Washington Post-ABC News poll published Sept. 25, only 49 percent of young Americans — those between the ages of 19 and 29 — said they are "absolutely certain to vote" in the November midterms, compared with 63 percent of those 30-64 and 84 percent of those 65 and older. And an NPR/Marist poll published on Oct. 6 found that those aged 18-29 are the least likely to vote in November. Still, some leading voting rights groups are optimistic that Gen Z will vote in droves this year." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE MORE FROM MITCH — In another excerpt from Raju's McConnell interview, the Kentucky Republican has a message for those who want him ousted from his leadership post, including Trump: "I have the votes." If McConnell does indeed have things locked up, he would set a new record for the longest-serving party leader in the next Congress. More from McConnell: "'I don't have a litmus test,' McConnell said when asked if he wants a party more in line with Trump or with [Rep. LIZ] CHENEY [(R-Wyo.)]. 'I'm for people that get the Republican nomination, and for winning, because if we win we get to decide what the agenda is, and they don't.'" BARNES' BIG BET — Democrat MANDELA BARNES' Senate bid is slipping, so he's doubling down on abortion in an effort to unseat Wisconsin GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON, Holly Otterbein and Shia Kapos report from Milwaukee . And Barnes' focus isn't without merit: "According to a recent poll by Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin voters opposed the recent Supreme Court decision by a whopping 63 percent to 30 percent." But, but, but: Abortion was only rated as the sixth-most concerning issue by registered voters in that same poll, and "some Democrats are questioning whether abortion will be a cure-all for the party's ills this November." KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — "Fetterman says his stroke recovery 'changes everything,' but that he's fit to serve as senator," by NBC's Dasha Burns and Jonathan Allen from Braddock, Pa.: "During the interview, [Democrat JOHN] FETTERMAN occasionally stuttered and had trouble finding words. He responded to oral questions after reading captions on a computer screen. 'I sometimes will hear things in a way that's not perfectly clear. So I use captioning so I'm able to see what you're saying on the captioning,' Fetterman said." FWIW: Introducing the segment on air, Burns said: "In small talk before my interview [with Fetterman], it wasn't clear he understood what I was saying." But Kara Swisher, who suffered a stroke in 2011, was quick to push back: "Sorry to say but I talked to [Fetterman] for over an hour without stop or any aides and this is just nonsense. Maybe this reporter is just bad at small talk." Read the full thread — "Fetterman, Oz vie for Black voters in close Pa. Senate race," by AP's Mike Catalini and Marc Levy: "There's no evidence of a looming mass defection to Republicans like [MEHMET] OZ. But if he can peel off even a small share — or a critical mass of Black voters choose not to vote — it might prove consequential."
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   BlackRock is proud to support U.S. roads and infrastructure, with over $20 billion invested on behalf of our clients. Learn more. | | | BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE THE GOP CRIME PUSH — The race between Republican BO HINES and Democrat WILEY NICKEL in a district around Raleigh, N.C., is perhaps the prime example of how Republicans are trying to shift the messaging toward crime and public safety in the closing weeks of the midterms. "Roughly 70% of the political ads on broadcast and cable TV in the Raleigh-Durham market since Labor Day have at least touched on crime, the highest percentage of any market with a House race, according to ad tracker AdImpact," WSJ's Natalie Andrews reports from Benson, N.C. BATTLE FOR THE STATES GEORGIA ON MY MIND — Georgia voters could be forgiven for feeling confused about the pair of Republicans seeking the top two state offices in the November election. Incumbent Gov. BRIAN KEMP resisted Trump's pressure campaign to reverse the election results. But lieutenant governor nominee BURT JONES is under criminal investigation for his role in the fake electors scheme. "The pairing has produced an awkward spectacle," Brittany Gibson writes this morning. HOT POLLS — South Dakota: Republican Gov. KRISTI NOEM is leading Democrat JAMIE SMITH in the gubernatorial race, 45% to 41%, per The SDSU Poll. — Georgia: Warnock leads Walker, 48% to 46%, in the latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll . And Kemp leads Democrat STACEY ABRAMS 51% to 46%. HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — New Hampshire: Senate Leadership Fund's latest contrast ad hits Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN on taxes and boosts underfunded GOP nominee DON BOLDUC as someone who "will fight against the Biden agenda." — Pennsylvania: Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN's latest ad, a coordinated spot with the DSCC , features a Western Pennsylvania Republican voter saying, "John Fetterman won't fit in in Washington. That's the point." And Senate Majority PAC is launching a multimillion-dollar ad campaign hitting MEHMET OZ over allegations that his previous medical studies led to animal abuse. More from CNN … Watch one of the ads — Michigan: House Majority PAC, Democrats' leading congressional super PAC, is up with a new ad featuring Republican JOHN GIBBS' sexist writings about women in the workplace and women's suffrage.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Russian servicemen fire from their 152-mm gun 2A36 Giatsint-B howitzer at Ukrainian troops at an undisclosed location in Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, on Tuesday, Oct. 11. | Alexei Alexandrov/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE WORKING THE ROOM — In recent appearances, Biden is increasingly ditching the presidential lectern in favor of the freedom of a handheld mic. AP's Zeke Miller and Colleen Long write: "Those who know him best say the mic swap makes Biden a much more natural speaker, and he knows it. There's an obvious change when he makes the switch. His shoulders relax. A smile spreads across his face. He walks the room, making eye contact." MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT DOJ'S LATEST REQUEST — The Justice Department on Tuesday asked the Supreme Court "to turn down former President Donald Trump's bid to get a set of about 100 documents marked as classified back into the hands of an independent 'special master' reviewing materials seized from his Mar-a-Lago estate," Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write. KNOWING CHRISTINA BOBB — "She Went Out on a Limb for Trump. Now She's Under Justice Dept. Scrutiny," by NYT's Glenn Thrush, Maggie Haberman and Michael Schmidt: "Ms. Bobb's trajectory is a familiar one in Mr. Trump's orbit: a marginal player thrust by ambition and happenstance into a position where her profile and prospects are elevated, but at the cost of serious legal and reputational risk." MORE POLITICS THE LATEST IN L.A. — Biden waded into the L.A. City Council drama on Tuesday, calling for the resignations of three of its members who have remained in their posts despite leaked audio from a meeting in which they used racist language. "When a Democrat says something racist or antisemitic, we hold Democrats accountable," press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said Tuesday. "When a MAGA Republican says something racist or antisemitic, they are embraced by cheering crowds." More from L.A. Times' Eli Stokols: "By weighing in ahead of Biden's trip, the White House sought to deal with the controversy before the president arrives in California, where he is set to hold two public events and attend a fundraiser with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) on Thursday night." — "Protests, anger, tears roil L.A. City Council meeting over leaked racist recordings," by L.A. Times' Benjamin Oreskes, David Zahniser, Julia Wick, Dakota Smith and Libor Jany — "Los Angeles staggers under cascade of scandals," by Jeremy White: "The crush of scandals has tarnished Los Angeles government and eroded public trust as the city begins balloting in one of the most expensive mayor's races in its history, prompting angry protesters to pack a council meeting Tuesday and clamor for resignations." 2024 WATCH — Republican megadonor MIRIAM ADELSON has told the party's potential slate of 2024 presidential hopefuls that she won't get involved in a primary, regardless of who is running, Alex Isenstadt reports. "Prospective candidates have eagerly sought out meetings with the 76-year-old, Israeli-born Adelson, whose net worth, according to Forbes, is more than $26 billion. The list of possible contenders who've spoken with Adelson includes Trump, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY, former Vice President MIKE PENCE , former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO, Florida Sen. RICK SCOTT and Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON." THE POST-PELOSI ERA — Whenever NANCY PELOSI decides to step aside and retire from her historic run in Congress, conventional wisdom is that her daughter, CHRISTINE, will be the frontrunner to take her place. But California Lt. Gov. ELENI KOUNALAKIS could be a dark horse to keep an eye on, Puck's Teddy Schleifer writes.
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   Invested in the future of education. Learn more about BlackRock. | | | WAR IN UKRAINE THE U.S. RESPONSE — U.S. officials are "wading deeper into Russia's war on Ukraine on multiple fronts, even as the president and the Senate Armed Services Committee chair liken the conflict to the height of the Cold War," Andrew Desiderio, Nahal Toosi and Jonathan Lemire write. "Taken together, the developments underscore America's commitment to cooperation with Kyiv, even as Biden remains keen to avoid a direct U.S.-Russia conflict and the war drags on with no end in sight." THE ARMS RACE — "The Hunt to Arm Ukraine Leads to Difficult Choices," by NYT's Lara Jakes: "The U.S. and NATO are scouring the world for new sources of old weapons to send to Ukraine. But it risks as much peril for some nations as it does promise for Kyiv." FOR YOUR RADAR — "U.N., G-7 decry Russian attack on Ukraine as possible war crime," by AP's Adam Schreck AMERICA AND THE WORLD HOW IT HAPPENED — Before OPEC+ announced its decision to curb oil production, "U.S. officials warned Saudi leaders that a cut would be viewed as a clear choice by Riyadh to side with Russia in the Ukraine war and that the move would weaken already-waning support in Washington for the kingdom," WSJ's Summer Said, Benoit Faucon, Dion Nissenbaum and Stephen Kalin report from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. "Saudi officials dismissed the requests, which they viewed as a political gambit by the Biden administration to avoid bad news ahead of the U.S. midterm elections." — Meanwhile: "Biden vows 'consequences' for Saudis after OPEC+ cuts output," by AP's Aamer Madhani MEGATREND — "American Universities Continue to Falter in World Rankings as China Rises," by WSJ's Douglas Belkin and Sha Hua MEDIAWATCH ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR — "Watch the Disturbing Kanye Interview Clips That Tucker Carlson Didn't Put on Air," by Vice's Anna Merlan: "These include numerous antisemitic sentiments from Ye, a strange and lengthy digression about 'fake children' he claimed were planted in his house to manipulate his own children, and a statement that he's vaccinated against COVID-19."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Mike Lee publicly begged Mitt Romney for an endorsement (and for campaign donations). Alvaro Bedoya marked Hispanic Heritage Month by sharing his family's journey from Peru to America. Karine Jean-Pierre, Scott Bixby , Sewell Chan, and others shared stories and wisdom for National Coming Out Day. Chris Coons peels back the curtain on Congress' 12th annual bipartisan luncheon, featuring 560 pounds of barbecue. IN MEMORIAM — "Shannah Rose Goldner, 56, of Manhattan died on October 8, 2022, after a two-year illness. … Although New York was always home, Shannah was bicoastal for a time, working at 'Hard Copy,' 'Good Morning America,' Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, where she earned an Emmy for her work on 'The Rachel Maddow Show.' Shannah was a universally respected booker and producer and a beloved colleague." Read the full obituary SPOTTED: Jamie Dimon and Judy Miller at Off the Record on Tuesday. … Steven Mnuchin and John Kerry at Cafe Milano, separately, on Tuesday night. SPOTTED a book party hosted by David Chalian and Justin Bernstine for Andrew Kirtzman's new book, "Giuliani: The Rise and Tragic Fall of America's Mayor" ( $30): Dana Bash, Manu Raju, Dick Stevenson, Penny Lee, Sam Feist, Kathy O'Hearn, Joan Biskupic, Kristin Donnelly, Eric Schultz, Sean Crotty, Emily Atkinson, Eli Yokley, Evan Hollander, Isaac Dovere, Kristen Holmes and Noah Gray. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Johan Hassel is now a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress' Global Progress initiative. He currently is international secretary with Sweden's Social Democratic Party. — Brittany Bramell Punaro , former head of public affairs for the CIA, and Lauren Claffey Tomlinson, former head of strategic comms for DHS, are launching Steer PR, a strategic comms and critical issue advisory firm. MEDIA MOVE — Kara Kennedy is now a staff writer at The Spectator's world edition. She previously was an editorial graduate at the Telegraph. TRANSITIONS — Former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) has been named director of the University of Chicago Institute of Politics, taking over from David Axelrod. The announcement … Andrew Kolb is joining the International Foundation for Electoral Systems as director of strategic comms and advocacy. He previously was director of comms at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. … Brian Crawford will be president and CEO of The Beer Institute. He most recently was executive VP of government affairs at the American Hotel and Lodging Association. … … Matt Pastore is now a legislative analyst for OMB's Office of Legislative Affairs. He previously was scheduling and operations director and policy adviser for Rep. David Trone (D-Md.). … Natalie Giordano is joining Invariant as director of external comms. She previously was at Purple Strategies. … Kyle Murphy is now senior adviser for industry and analysis in the International Trade Administration at the Department of Commerce. He most recently was senior adviser to the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. WEEKEND WEDDING — Meghan Biery, director for government and strategic security affairs at GlobalFoundries and an NSC alum, and Cmdr. Isaac Harris, China political military adviser at the office of the Secretary of Defense, got married Sunday at Mount Vernon. They celebrated at the wine festival afterward. The couple met at the Pentagon. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CNN's Chris Wallace … NYT's Michael Barbaro … VA's Tanya Bradsher … State's Stephanie Sutton … Fox News' Lauren Blanchard … POLITICO's Gaelle Ngadjui … David Oleksak … Megan Cheney … NPR's Jack Speer … Jamie Hennigan of the National Association of Manufacturers … Collin Berglund … WSJ's Gary Rosen … Jessica Henrichs of House Ways and Means … Kenneth Ahn … Washington Examiner's Juliegrace Brufke … Emily Beyer … Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies … Jorge Guajardo of McLarty Associates … former U.S. Treasurer Anna Escobedo Cabral, now of the Inter-American Development Bank … Alastair Fitzpayne … Eric Wilson of Bullpen Strategy Group and Startup Caucus … Bloomberg's Anna Edney … Chelsea Welch … Elizabeth Ray … Amber Lyons … Simon Limage … Jack Detsch … former Reps. Ed Royce (R-Calif.) and Joe Garcia (D-Fla.) … Kate Nocera … former Sen. Jake Garn (R-Utah) (9-0) … former Michigan Gov. John Engler … Lara Trump (4-0) … former Labor Secretary Seth Harris … Rosie Gray Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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