Monday, November 1, 2021

POLITICO Florida Playbook: 'Powerball politics': Democrats worry DeSantis is unbeatable

Presented by Florida Education Champions: Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Nov 01, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Gary Fineout

Presented by Florida Education Champions

Hello and welcome to Monday.

Start the clock Gov. Ron DeSantis will be on the ballot again in about a year and there's a big question for Democrats: Can he be stopped?

The list Here are some of the reasons for the anxiety of Democrats: The Republican governor has nearly $60 million in the bank. The GOP is on the cusp of becoming the state's majority party after erasing Democrats' enormous voter registration advantage. The Democratic field is splintering, and support for President Joe Biden has collapsed in a state that former President Donald Trump won easily.

Blunt assessment Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic political consultant and pollster who helped Barack Obama win the state, put it this way: "Right now Democrats are engaged in Powerball politics. They could get lucky, but it's more likely to happen because of circumstances outside their control rather than their ability to change the political environment in Florida."

The road not taken Amandi's assessment has been echoed by other Democrats, although some suggest there's enough time to derail DeSantis' re-election train. Still, this is not a place Democrats expected to be three years ago, when DeSantis just barely edged former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Rebuttal The Democrats challenging the governor — and Florida Democratic Party chair Manny Diaz — push back against the idea that a DeSantis victory appears likely at this point. Diaz said that "in politics, a year is an eternity." Diaz also contends DeSantis continued embrace of Republican populism is turning off the business community and does not reflect the viewpoints of the state's electorate. "I look at his record and say, 'Exactly what are you running on? What makes you unbeatable?'" Diaz said. "If I were running for governor, I would be excited. Bring this guy on."

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com

 

A message from Florida Education Champions:

Florida voters demanded their voice be heard on the issue of expanded gambling. Our amendment does just that allowing the people to vote to authorize sports and event betting at professional sports venues, pari-mutuel facilities and statewide via online sports betting platforms. The benefit is that hundreds of millions of dollars generated from tax revenues must go to supplement public school funding through Florida's Educational Enhancement Trust Fund. Learn more and sign the petition.

 


CAMPAIGN MODE

WELCOME TO THE MACHINE — "Florida Democrats anxious as DeSantis seems unbeatable," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: In a state that's turning red, it's working. Recent surveys shared with POLITICO show half of registered voters think the state is headed in the right direction, compared with only 25 percent who think the country is headed in the right direction. State Rep. Anna Eskamani, a progressive Democrat from Orlando who considered challenging DeSantis, also acknowledges Democrats' grim position. "The election's not happening tomorrow, there is still time for the tide to turn," Eskamani said. "But obviously it needs to be an all-hands-on-deck situation right now."

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE? — "Florida blocks professors from testifying against voting law pushed by DeSantis," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout and Marc Caputo: Florida's flagship university is under fire for violating the free speech rights of three professors it blocked from testifying in a lawsuit challenging the state's new law voting restrictions. Top University of Florida officials asserted that it was a conflict of interest for professors to testify in the lawsuit because they're state employees. It's a notable turnaround in university policy, which for years allowed professors to testify in lawsuits against the state — including one that unsuccessfully challenged the state law that restricted voting rights for convicted felons.

Time to quote Tom Petty The decision comes at a time when Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Florida Republicans have asserted that big tech companies, universities and the Biden administration are trying to squelch and intimidate the free speech rights of conservatives online, on campus and at school board meetings. "As Americans, we have a First Amendment right to exercise our free speech on our own time. We will not back down from the University of Florida's decision," said Michael McDonald, a UF political science professor who was one of the three blocked from testifying in the suit.

ON SECOND THOUGHT MAYBE — "UF professors could testify in voting rights case if they are unpaid, spokeswoman said," by Gainesville Sun's Danielle Ivanov: "The University of Florida would allow three professors to serve as expert witnesses in a case that challenges a new state law restricting voting access if they are not paid and don't use university time or resources, a UF spokeswoman said Sunday, adding confusion to a move that could have far-reaching impacts on academic freedom. Hessy Fernandez, UF director of issues management and crisis communications, told the Gainesville Sun in a text message Sunday the university views the professors' request to do outside work for the plaintiffs in the lawsuit as harmful to the university's interests."

HMM — "Roger Stone threatens to run against Ron DeSantis for not conducting election audit," by Newsweek's Natalie Colarossi: "Roger Stone said this weekend that he would consider running for governor in Florida against Ron DeSantis if the Republican leader refuses to conduct an audit of the state's 2020 election results. Stone, a longtime ally and former adviser to Donald Trump, said he would mull a bid for office in Florida as a Libertarian candidate, according to a social media post shared on Twitter."

RISING PROFILE — "Miami mayor seeks 2nd term as he raises national profile, " by The Associated Press' Adriana Gomez Licon: "Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is hoping to easily secure a second term Tuesday, with his reelection campaign showing he can raise millions as he seeks to elevate his profile at a national level. Suarez, 44, gained name recognition for launching an effort to lure technology investors to the city at the beginning of the year, meeting with PayPal founder Peter Thiel, tech magnate Marcelo Claure and engaging on Twitter with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, among other well-known entrepreneurs."

— " Dozens of congressional candidates in Florida fail to turn in mandatory financial reports," by Fresh Take Florida's Corbin Bolies

— "Ander Crenshaw reaches settlement over 'zombie campaign,' must pay fine to FEC," by Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles

TIGHT Democrats Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief are locked in an exceedingly close and volatile special election primary to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings, according to a new poll of Florida's 20th Congressional District commissioned by Pro-Israel America. The survey, which was conducted by Expedition Strategies, found Cherfilus-McCormick had 15 percent of support among likely Democratic primary voters, Holness had 14 percent and Sharief had 13 percent. State Sen. Perry Thurston had 10 percent, while other candidates were polling in single digits. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters from Oct. 20-24 and has an error margin of plus/minus 4.38 percent.

 

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

HERE WE GO — "DeSantis calls for November special session over vaccine mandates," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon and Andrew Atterbury: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday called lawmakers back to Tallahassee for a special legislative session that will officially open a new front in his administration's Covid wars with President Joe Biden: private business mandates. DeSantis is calling a special session for the week of Nov. 15-19 largely to beef up protections for workers whose employers institute vaccine mandates. It's a push that his political critics say is a continued flirtation with anti-vaxxers and designed to boost his political stock with conservative voters ahead of his 2022 reelection and potential future White House bid.

Something to watch The new focus on private businesses could also put DeSantis at odds with the state's powerful business lobby, which is generally GOP-leaning but reflexively pushes back against government-mandated restrictions on how they operate. "Your right to earn a living should not be contingent upon COVID shots," DeSantis said when formally announcing the special session.

Additional takeaways DeSantis' list of items he wants the Legislature to consider is notable for what it does not include: It does not specifically include a proposal for a flat-out ban on private employers enacting vaccine mandates. It also does not specifically include the idea of stripping Covid-19 liability protections from businesses that impose vaccine mandates. DeSantis floated the idea of removing liability protections, but it was going to be a tough sell. Instead, the proclamation says legislators should protect current and prospective employees against discrimination and — in an important move — offer unemployment benefits to workers who are turned down due to vaccination status.

Lastly What's also worth pointing out is that the governor wants to tinker with existing laws he's already used to go after local governments and school districts over masks and vaccines, suggesting someone may be skeptical as to the legality of those actions.

 

A message from Florida Education Champions:

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CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

The daily rundown — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there were 1,711 Covid-19 infections on Friday. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported that 1,999 hospital beds were being used in the state for Covid-19 patients.

LOOKING INTO THE NUMBERS — " In Miami-Dade, predominately Black and low-income ZIP codes are still behind on vaccination," by Miami Herald's Ana Claudia Chacin and Daniel Chang: "Despite flaws in the Florida Department of Health's reporting of vaccination rates for each of the 80 ZIP codes in Miami-Dade, a Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald analysis of the data reveals trends that suggest areas with predominantly Black and low-income residents are falling behind on vaccination against COVID-19. In the nine Miami-Dade ZIP codes where more than half of residents describe themselves as non-Hispanic Black, the average vaccination rate was just 48% of the population as of Friday. Only one of the nine ZIP codes had more than 50% of their population fully vaccinated."

— "Miami-Dade's COVID-19 vaccination rate is very high. Here's why you might be skeptical," by Miami Herald's Daniel Chang and Ana Claudia Chacin

— "Duval Schools lifts its mask requirements as COVID-19 rates dip in Jacksonville," by Florida Times-Union's Emily Bloch

DATELINE D.C.

DON'T FORGET ABOUT ME FOR '24 — "First look: Rubio urges GOP-Big Business divorce," by Axios's Alayna Treene and Sarah Mucha: "Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will call for Republicans to break up with Big Business when he addresses the National Conservatism Conference on Monday, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Rubio is seeking re-election in one of the most high-profile and expensive races of the 2022 cycle. He's using this speech to differentiate himself from traditional economic conservatism by branding himself as a leading proponent of the working class."

DODGEBALL — " Fox News host confronts GOP Sen. Rick Scott over Trump tax cuts adding trillions to deficit," by Newsweek's Fatma Khaled: "Fox News host Chris Wallace on Sunday confronted Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida over former President Donald Trump's tax cuts, which were estimated to increase the U.S. deficit by $1.5 trillion over the course of a decade. When Wallace asked Scott during an interview on Fox News Sunday if the Trump tax cuts, which were passed in 2017, should be reversed, the Republican senator, who had previously served as Florida governor, dodged the question and said that tax cuts could happen without increasing the deficit."

POINTING FINGERS — " Ted Deutch says effort to expand Medicaid blocked in US Senate by Joe Manchin," by Palm Beach Post's Antonio Fins: "An effort to end-run Republican recalcitrance to expand Medicaid coverage in Florida has apparently hit another roadblock, this time in Washington and this time due to opposition from a key U.S. Senate Democrat. Two months ago, U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Boca Raton, said congressional Democrats would seek to bypass Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP Florida lawmakers by expanding Medicaid in Florida, perhaps by working directly with counties and cities."

— "Rep. Waltz slams US companies 'drunk on Chinese money,' says they pose serious threat to America,'" by Fox News' Emma Colton

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 


PENINSULA AND BEYOND

ON HOLD — "Feds delay decision on Lake Okeechobee following criticism from Mast, others," by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: An Army Corps of Engineers official said Friday it is briefly delaying a decision on proposed changes in the operation for Lake Okeechobee in response to criticism from Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) and others. Lt. Col. Todd Polk of the agency's Jacksonville district office told reporters during a conference call that the proposed revisions to the Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual will limit harmful discharges to the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee rivers and their coastal estuaries.

NUMBER ONE — " Florida could set record for Affordable Care Act insurance enrollment in 2022," by Tampa Bay Times' Christopher O'Donnell: "Florida led the nation with a record high 2.1 million residents enrolled in federal health care marketplace plans in 2021. The increase in funding will make it easier to reach and enroll people from the state's rural areas and minority communities, said Anne Swerlick, senior policy analyst and attorney at the Florida Policy Institute, a non-partisan nonprofit based in Tallahassee."

TUNNELS. IN SOUTH FLORIDA — "So Elon Musk wants to build a tunnel to the beach. And that may be just the beginning," by Sun Sentinel's Susannah Bryan: "Inquiring minds want to know just how Elon Musk's Boring Company will dig a pair of underground tunnels from downtown Fort Lauderdale to the beach in flood-prone South Florida on the cheap. The Boring Company's 29-page pitch, submitted to the city in June but only recently made public, holds some clues to the ambitious plan."

— "Did drilling next door damage Surfside tower? Newly surfaced vibration data offers clues," by Miami Herald's Sarah Blaskey, Ben Conarck and Aaron Leibowitz

— " Osceola wants stricter rules for motels converted to low-income housing, sparking affordability concerns," by Orlando Sentinel's Caroline Glenn:

 

A message from Florida Education Champions:

Monopoly.

It's not just a board game, but a bad business practice that flies in the face of free market principles and competition.

When one entity owns and controls the market on any business, Floridians lose. And who else loses? In this case, Florida public education.

Florida Education Champions' amendment authorizes hundreds of millions of dollars generated by its passage and implementation to go directly to supplement Florida's Educational Enhancement Trust Fund – without raising taxes.

By signing the Florida Education Champions petition, you can demand the ballot question be asked to allow Floridians, 21 and older, to use their favorite online sports betting platforms and ensure any new revenue MUST go to increase education funding in Florida.

Competition. Free Market. More Options. Education Funding.

That's what will be on the November 2022 Florida ballot, with your help.

 


ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— "Florida teacher charged with abuse days after school honor," by The Associated Press: "A Florida educator was arrested on a charge of child abuse against a student just two days after being named a Teacher of the Year at the school. Caroline "Melanie" Lee, 60, is facing a charge of felony child abuse following her arrest Friday, according to Jacksonville Sheriff's Office jail inmate records. Lee was arrested after calling a student into her classroom to speak privately and allegedly striking the female student on the face, according to The Florida Times-Union, citing a Duval Schools Police report."

— " Gables Police Chief says gruesome Halloween display was meant to be 'educational,'" by Miami Herald's Samantha J. Gross: "The Coral Gables Police Department made an effort to have a bit of Halloween fun this year, but the gory attempt was met with more gasps than giggles. The department set up a fake "crime scene" on Miracle Mile, which featured yellow tape and what looks like a body covered in a tarp. The scene also prominently displayed a Coral Gables police SUV, with a limbless mannequin in a t-shirt and face gaiter tucked under the front right tire."

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar … former State Rep. Cary PigmanJesse Panuccio of Boies Schiller Flexner

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Florida has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Sunshine State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

 

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