| | | | | | | Presented By Ripple | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Nov 01, 2021 | | Welcome back to Sneak. The Holler echoed through the Capitol. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,082 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Scoop - FEC lets foreigners finance U.S. ballot fights |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | The Federal Election Commission has ruled foreign donors can finance U.S. referendum campaigns, opening the door to foreign spending on fights over high-profile policy issues, Axios' Lachlan Markay has learned. Why it matters: Foreign nationals are barred from donating to U.S. political candidates or committees. But the FEC's decision — allowing them to support ballot committees — provides another avenue for foreigners to directly influence U.S. voters and domestic policy. - A major question stemming from the decision is whether foreign nationals are now permitted to spend money to influence the actual mechanisms of the U.S. democratic process.
- That would include congressional redistricting, which is frequently subject to ballot referenda.
- The FEC's ruling did not address that question, meaning it will likely be litigated in future fights at the commission.
The decision only concerns federal law; states remain free to outlaw foreign funding for state-registered ballot committees. - Seven states already do so.
- In Maine, where a Canadian-owned power company is financing a ballot committee pushing for new energy transmission lines, Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, recently vetoed legislation to ban foreign ballot measure funding.
Driving the news: In a 4-2 vote in July, the FEC ruled ballot initiatives are not "elections" under existing federal law, and therefore the foreign donation prohibition doesn't apply. - Two sources familiar with the decision told Axios that FEC chair Shana Broussard, a Democrat, voted with the panel's three Republicans to dismiss the underlying complaint. It alleged illicit foreign funding for a ballot committee in Montana.
The big picture: There are already 61 referenda on state ballots in 2022, according to electoral research service Ballotpedia. - The decision has the potential to affect not just policy initiatives, but the mechanics of U.S. democracy itself.
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Manchin's $3.9 trillion pause |  | | | Sen. Joe Manchin pauses while addressing reporters today. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images | | | | Efforts to pressure Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to express support for President Biden's massive social safety net expansion prompted him to make his two dramatic declarations: don't rush the package, and don't link it to the separate infrastructure bill, people familiar with the matter tell Axios' Hans Nichols. Why it matters: Manchin's surprise press statement today didn't just disrupt the glide path to a vote envisioned by House leaders; it created a PR nightmare for the White House. He said the $1.75 trillion package was financed by "shell games" — Manchin believes it will cost closer to $3.9 trillion. - That estimate comes from the Penn Wharton Budget model, which has been helping Manchin sort through how much each program costs. It includes easily digestible tables, showing the costs per year and over the usual 10-year window.
- The same experts estimated last week that the revenue increases Biden proposes to finance the spending — which the White House put at $1.9 trillion — may only generate closer to $1.5 trillion.
- Manchin has been consulting with Penn Wharton experts throughout the process and trusts the model.
By the numbers: For example, the White House puts the cost of day care subsidies and universal preschool at $400 billion; Penn Wharton estimates it at $700 billion over 10 years. - The White House wants to spend $200 billion to extend the child tax credit for one year at the enhanced $3,600-per-year level, and make it fully refundable for its duration. Penn Wharton calculates the total cost, over 10 years, at $1.8 trillion.
- Drafters of the bill have taken to using an array of different program durations to make the total spending number digestible for wavering Democrats.
Go deeper: In a statement tonight, one progressive, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), framed Manchin's opposition in racial and other terms. - "Joe Manchin's opposition to the Build Back Better Act is anti-Black, anti-child, anti-woman and anti-immigrant," she said.
- "Joe Manchin does not get to dictate the future of our country."
- A Manchin spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
| | | | | | | | 3. By the numbers: Abortion views |  Data: Gallup; Chart: Will Chase/Axios The percentage of Americans who think abortions should be legal under any circumstances has ticked up in recent years, but a plurality still say it should only be legal in certain circumstances, according to polling by Gallup reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight. Driving the news: The Supreme Court heard oral arguments today for two challenges to a new Texas law banning abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected. 58% of Americans oppose such bans, as of earlier this year. Between the lines: Polls over the years reveal a long-divided country over the issue. Even as a record share of Americans (47%) now see abortion as morally acceptable, there are a variety of views over the strictness or laxity of abortion laws. - The share of Americans claiming to be "pro-choice" or "pro-life" has hovered around 50% since the late 1990s.
- As of earlier this year, 49% labeled themselves pro-choice and 47% pro-life, according to Gallup.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from Ripple | | The real power of cryptocurrency | | |  | | | | Crypto helps drive: - Real efficiencies for business.
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See for yourself how crypto helps move business forward — in the U.S. and around the world. | | | | | | 4. Kerry already looking beyond COP26 |  | | | Climate envoy John Kerry watches as President Biden speaks today in Scotland. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Pool/AFP via Getty Images | | | | COP26 is barely underway, but U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry is already looking ahead to what's next, Axios Generate co-author Ben Geman writes from Glasgow, Scotland. What they're saying: "What's really critical is making sure whatever promises and whatever ambition is put on the table here is empowered to execute," Kerry told Ben today on the sidelines of the climate change gathering in Scotland. - "That means that countries that have raised their ambition, but which know that they need technical assistance, and finance, have got to get it," Kerry told Axios.
- "And our focus, our primary focus, will be marrying the trillions that will be on the table with the blended finance, the de-risking, the ... development banks, that make deals happen."
Zoom in: Kerry also name-checked a few of the countries and topics he's eyeing further work on, including India's 2030 renewables target, as well as Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa and others. - "So there's a big agenda, which is going to require a lot of cooperative work. That's the biggest single thing you can do is help the ambition to become real," he said.
Domestically, Kerry said he's expecting a lot of coordination with the Energy Department, noting he's hopeful about pending legislation in Congress to boost R&D work. - Asked how long he expects to remain special envoy, Kerry said, "I really haven't confronted that and I haven't taken it on with any specific term in mind." Then the former secretary of State added: "Not forever."
Subscribe: You can sign up for email delivery of Axios Generate, written weekdays by Ben and Andrew Freedman, by clicking on this link. | | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour |  | | | Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images | | | | Workers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and their supporters protested the federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate with, among other props, a rocket-like syringe. | | | | | | | | A message from Ripple | | What's real about crypto? | | |  | | | | The powerful efficiencies it provides. The unique financial transparency. The carbon-neutral ways to power it. The new wave of business opportunities it's creating — in the U.S. and abroad. Crypto helps drive real global innovation. Learn more now. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading. A reminder your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | | It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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