Monday, May 10, 2021

The House GOP’s Trump trap

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May 10, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Elana Schor

With help from Myah Ward

A LEGITIMATE QUESTION — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is backing the removal of his No. 3 leader, Liz Cheney, after her repeated criticism of Donald Trump's baseless claims that the 2020 election was marred by widespread fraud. Yet just two months ago, in March, McCarthy himself denied that his objections to certifying the presidential ballot in two states amounted to an attempt to overturn Trump's loss.

"It takes 270. If you remove Arizona and Pennsylvania, President Biden is still president — he's above 270," McCarthy told a CNN reporter who pressed him while describing Republican attempts to "overturn" the 2020 election.

Trump has offered a much different narrative of a "fake" presidential election — as the former president put it on Sunday. In another statement slamming Cheney last week, Trump envisioned "a far different presidential result" had then-Vice President Mike Pence declined to accept the will of the voters in two of six states.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Rep. Liz Cheney arrive during a House Republican Leadership news conference in the U.S. Capitol in February.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Rep. Liz Cheney arrive during a House Republican Leadership news conference in the U.S. Capitol in February. | Getty Images

The difference between McCarthy's depiction of the certification votes on Jan. 6 and Trump's version of events is more than rhetorical. As House Republicans hasten to replace Cheney with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), who challenged certification of Pennsylvania's electoral votes, some of them are trying to have it both ways: They are trying to assuage Trump's unfounded belief that widespread voter fraud cost him the White House while also arguing that Biden's win was legitimate.

With Democrats preparing to try to put Trump effectively back on the ballot in next year's midterms, we can expect to hear a lot more House Republicans being pressed to explain whether their votes on Jan. 6 amounted to an attempted overturning of Biden's 2020 victory.

McCarthy is hardly the only one getting pushed for clarification. Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), who's seeking an open Senate seat next year, voted against certifying both the Arizona and Pennsylvania results. He wrote later in January that "this was never about overturning the election result, it was about forcing a discussion that millions of Americans wanted us to have." He told The Associated Press last month that Biden "won the vote on Jan. 6, and I think he is the legitimate president."

GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, who's running for governor in his home state of New York, offered a sharper rejoinder when our colleagues at Playbook tried to pin him down as to whether Biden's victory was legitimate. Zeldin also voted against certification in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Ultimately, Zeldin concurred with the verb "won" to describe Biden's victory.

Expect more questions like these: What did Liz Cheney say about Trump's 2020 defeat that was inaccurate? Republicans may have set a trap for themselves by removing Cheney that will force them — contrary to McCarthy's hopes — to look backward as often as forward during their campaign to retake the House.

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From the Health Desk

THE SOFT SELL FOR HARD (VAX) NOS A free beer in New Jersey. Free tickets to Yankees and Mets games. A $100 savings bond for anyone between 16 and 35 in West Virginia. One hundred dollars for state employees in Maryland. These are just a handful of the incentives offered by cities, states and companies for people who get the Covid vaccine.

The White House Covid response team has said it's exploring the idea of incentives, working with businesses like grocery stores, retailers and sports leagues to offer special discounts and promotions for people who roll up their sleeves.

With almost 50 percent of the U.S. population partially vaccinated, governments are starting to turn attention to a group Ken Resnicow, a professor of health behavior at the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, calls the "hard nos."

And it's possible that incentives like these could actually make this group less likely to get a shot, Resnicow told Nightly's Myah Ward.

"There's a large concentration of a certain demographic, white, evangelical, male Republicans — we know for that subgroup, who's the highest 'hard no' group in America, that for them, this is an issue of freedom, not feeling coerced, asserting their independence, avoiding feeling controlled," he said.

In a UCLA survey last week , 15 percent of respondents said they would be less likely to get a vaccine if offered $100. The incentives are still worth it: A larger number — 34 percent in the study — said they would be encouraged by a cash offer.

But there's a different way to target those that might be turned off by the incentive, Resnicow said. He envisions a tailored incentive structure that gives people choices: Do you want an incentive to get vaccinated? What might it be? How should the incentive be distributed?

For example, if the incentive were a cash offer, you could give people the option to take the money or instead choose to give it to an organization on a list of charities.

This approach would be difficult to implement on the federal level, Resnicow said, but counties and states could more easily survey their populations to determine what incentives and what approach would be most effective for their demographics. "That we can do relatively quickly," he said.

Instead of incentives, tactics like motivational interviewing could be used to persuade the hard-no resisters without making them feel "threatened," Resnicow said.

"In motivational interviewing, if you tell me you're not going to quit smoking or you're not going to stop drinking ... we try to reflect that back without judgment," he said.

The second principle behaviorists apply in motivational interviewing is affirmation.

"We want to be able to create a connection," Resnicow said. "You could say to someone who's a high hard no: 'You care about your health. You've researched a lot. You've thought about this, you really don't think this is best for you and your family.'"

Resnicow and his team at the University of Michigan trained providers at federally qualified health centers in the state to use these techniques. The university also just received two federal grants to train church members as vaccine navigators in their communities.

What'd I Miss?

Russian spy unit suspected of directed-energy attacks on U.S. personnel: U.S. officials suspect that the GRU, Russia's military intelligence unit, may be behind alleged attacks that are causing mysterious health issues among U.S. government personnel across the world, according to three current and former officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

Nightly video player on Colonial pipeline cyberattack

Colonial Pipeline eyes restart this week: The Colonial Pipeline could be restarted by the end of this week after the cyberattack that forced the shutdown of the main gasoline supply line to the East Coast on Friday, the company said today — a development that could ease concerns about spiking fuel prices. The pipeline company said it was restarting operations slowly "in a phased approach" for the 5,500-mile pipeline that delivers nearly half of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to the East Coast from the oil refinery hub near Houston.

FDA authorizes Pfizer vaccine for kids 12 to 15: The FDA said Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine can be given to kids 12 to 15 years old — making it the first shot available for Americans younger than 16.

Cuomo says New York public colleges will require students to get vaccines: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced today that the State University of New York and the City University of New York will require Covid-19 vaccinations for students returning this fall. About 394,000 undergrads and graduate students are enrolled in the SUNY system. CUNY serves about 274,000 students on campuses in all five New York City boroughs.

On the Hill

BEGINNING OF THE END FOR CHENEYEarlier this year, McCarthy stood by Cheney's side as she faced an unsuccessful attempt to strip her of her leadership position after voting to impeach Trump. Now, months later, McCarthy and his allies say she's gotta go. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, Congress reporter Olivia Beavers dives into what changed.

Play audio

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

AROUND THE WORLD

AS MIDEAST CRISIS ESCALATES, BIDEN QUIET Biden and his aides have signaled that they believe stepping back from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to focus on more direct threats to America is in the U.S. national interest. But walking away may not be in Biden's political interest, Nahal Toosi writes.

Weeks of tensions between Israelis and Palestinians over access to holy sites and the potential eviction of several Palestinian families from east Jerusalem exploded today, leaving more than 300 Palestinians hurt, according to media reports. That's on top of other Palestinians and Israeli security officials hurt in earlier recent clashes.

As the situation spiraled, the Biden administration has publicly weighed in over the past three days with phone calls and official statements, after weeks of private engagement. The recent public moves may have helped nudge Israel into taking steps to defuse tensions, such as delaying the potential evictions and changing the route of a Jerusalem Day parade of nationalist Israelis today.

But activists, analysts and several of Biden's fellow Democrats in Congress — including progressive favorites Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — say the administration should do more. Some said the public reaction so far has been too little, too late, too quiet and too equivocal for a crisis that has been brewing for weeks — and of which the administration had ample warning. Israeli officials, meanwhile, defended their government, even to the point where Israel's ambassador to the United States accused a U.S. lawmaker of Arab descent of stoking terror.

Nightly Number

$75.7 billion

The amount California expects in budget surplus , despite a year of pandemic closures. The surplus projection prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom today to propose sending cash back to residents as he faces a recall election.

 

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Parting Words

SUMMERING IN BEDMINSTER A pro-Trump super PAC is holding its first fundraising event on May 22 at the former president's Bedminster golf club, according to two people familiar with the planning.

The event will benefit Make America Great Again Action, a super PAC spearheaded by former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Trump is expected to attend the event, which will include reception and a dinner. The minimum price for entry is $250,000.

Trump tapped Lewandowki earlier this year to oversee the super PAC as part of his post-White House political operation, Alex Isenstadt writes. It's the second big money group Trump has formed. Shortly after the election, he launched Save America PAC, a leadership PAC that has raised tens of millions of dollars.

The event will be the first fundraiser at Bedminister since Trump left the White House. The former president is expected to spend the summer season at the golf club instead of his Mar-a-Lago estate in South Florida.

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