Tuesday, November 10, 2020

FX Strategy 10 Nov 2020

 
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FX Strategy 10 Nov 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and NOK are the top gainers today, up 0.32% and 0.24% versus the dollar while CAD and SEK are the top losers, down -0.06% and -0.04% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The German 10-year was trading at -0.513, up 0.4bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.924, flat 0.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, flat 0.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.371, down -0.9bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading firm today. The Hang Seng was trading at 26236.45, up 0.85%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 24905.59, up 0.26%. The Kospi was trading at 2452.83, up 0.23%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13125.55, up 0.23%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6200.43, up 0.23%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3416.05, up 0.24%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3555.12, up 0.31%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6181.0, up 0.07%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3360.0, down -1.35%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.73, up 0.78%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.5, up 0.52%.

 

Yesterday was dominated by the news of the potential COVID-19 vaccine. In terms today's economic data releases, overnight we have seen Australian NAB Business Confidence for October (Actual 5 v Forecast -3) and Chinese data for October with the Inflation Rate YoY (Actual 0.5% v Forecast 1%), MoM (Actual -0.3% v Forecast 0.4%) and PPI (Actual -2.1% v Forecast -1.8%). We have also seen French Unemployment Rate Q3 (Actual 9% v Forecast 8%) plus Employment data from the UK with October Claimant Count Change (Actual -29.8K v Forecast 36K), Unemployment Rate for September (Actual 4.8% v Forecast 4.9%) and Employment Change for August (Actual -164K v Forecast -140K). Looking forward to the morning session, at 10:00 GMT we have German ZEW Economic Sentiment for November (Previous 56.1 v Forecast 42) alongside Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November (Previous 52.3 v Forecast 36). At 11:00 GMT we have South African Manufacturing Production for September YoY (Previous -10.8% v Forecast -7.2%) and MoM (Previous 3.6% v Forecast 8%).

 

The afternoon session will be relatively quiet for data releases. At 15:00 GMT we have US JOLTs Job Openings for September (Previous 6.493M v Forecast 6.2M) and US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for November (Previous 55.2 v Forecast 53.2). This evening Fed's Quarles Testimony will start at 19:00 GMT with Fed's Brainard speaking at 22:00 GMT. South Korean Unemployment Rate for October (Previous 3.9% v Forecast 3.8%) is released at 23:00 GMT with Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Previous 105 v Forecast 108) and Consumer Confidence Change (Previous 11.9% v Forecast 2.9%) being released at 23:30 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1843 for 1.1766
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1843 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1766 enter at 1.182. Above 1.1843 to open 1.189

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3164 for 1.3255
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.3164 and we see a rise to 1.3255 enter at 1.3192. Below 1.3164 to open 1.3119

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 104.74 for 106.3
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 104.74 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.3 enter at 105.06. Below 104.74 to open 103.84

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7253 for 0.7326
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.7253 and we see a rise to 0.7326 enter at 0.7277. Below 0.7253 to open 0.7223

 
 
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