News : POLITICO Playbook: The last gasp of Trumpism

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

POLITICO Playbook: The last gasp of Trumpism

Nov 10, 2020

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By Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman

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DRIVING THE DAY

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is bending the federal bureaucracy to his benefit. Senate Republicans are taking his side. The attorney general has authorized prosecutors to probe election irregularities -- a hugely controversial move, considering there is no evidence of irregularities. Sens. DAVID PERDUE and KELLY LOEFFLER, Georgia Republicans, called on the Georgia secretary of state to resign after TRUMP lost the state. Even in statehouses around the country, Republicans are investigating the election: Republicans in Harrisburg, Pa., are calling for an audit, and Republicans in Lansing, Mich., have subpoenaed election officials.

YOU'RE WITNESSING what might be the last gasp of Trumpism.

IF TRUMP HAS a dominant ideology, it's that people on his side -- his administration and his party -- should be unbendingly loyal to him. And what you're seeing right now is the political and governmental machinery that he controls succumb to his anger at losing the election. And, with 71 DAYS until Inauguration Day, this kind of behavior has a rapidly approaching termination date.

OF COURSE, as with anything in his universe, this strain of Trumpism is a game, of sorts, an act in which the cast is aiming to please TRUMP.

BUT, IN REALITY, all of this is a bit less than meets the eye. Senate Republicans are suggesting the president's time is limited, and he needs to produce evidence -- and soon. Georgia Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER said he isn't resigning. JOE BIDEN'S team is mulling legal action to force the government to begin the transition. A.G. BILL BARR'S memorandum says: "investigations 'may be conducted if there are clear and apparently-credible allegations of irregularities that, if true, could potentially impact the outcome of a federal election in an individual State'" -- a lot of caveats there.

FURTHERMORE, the top Justice Department official in charge of election law quit in protest. More from Josh Gerstein on Barr authorizing investigations … NYT's Katie Benner and Mike Schmidt on Richard Pilger -- the head of the elections crime branch -- stepping down

BUT ALL THAT SAID, TRUMP is planning to launch a leadership PAC to keep doling out money to Republicans, so he's clearly not planning to go far. NYT's Maggie Haberman on the PAC

WHO IS ON BOARD? -- "GOP-led states back Trump's legal drive to challenge election," by Zach Montellaro and Josh Gerstein: "Republican-controlled state governments on Monday began throwing their weight behind President Donald Trump's legal drive to challenge the results of last week's presidential election.

"A coalition of Republican attorneys genera l filed an amicus brief at the U.S. Supreme Court urging the justices to formally take up and resolve a dispute from Pennsylvania over a ruling that the state's Supreme Court issued in September granting three extra days for the receipt of mail-in ballots cast in last Tuesday's election."

-- BUT, BUT, BUT: "Growing Discomfort at Law Firms Representing Trump in Election Lawsuits," by NYT's Jessica Silver-Greenberg, Rachel Abrams and David Enrich

DRIVING THE DAY … BIDEN will deliver remarks on health care in the afternoon in Wilmington, Del. KAMALA HARRIS will join him. The two will also hold briefings with transition advisers.

-- VP MIKE PENCE will attend the Senate GOP lunch at 1 p.m. … TRUMP continues to have nothing on his public schedule.

BREAKING OVERNIGHT … AP/JERUSALEM: "Erekat, longtime spokesman for the Palestinians, dies at 65," by Joseph Krauss: "Saeb Erekat, a veteran peace negotiator and prominent international spokesman for the Palestinians for more than three decades, died on Tuesday, weeks after being infected by the coronavirus. He was 65.

"The American-educated Erekat was involved in nearly every round of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians going back to the landmark Madrid conference in 1991. Over the years, he was a constant media presence. He tirelessly argued for a negotiated two-state solution to the decades-old conflict, defended the Palestinian leadership and blamed Israel -- particularly hard-line leader Benjamin Netanyahu -- for the failure to reach an agreement."

ICYMI … MARK ESPER gave an interview to the Military Times on Wednesday, in anticipation of being fired. The interview … Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) -- the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee -- said he was not given a heads-up about the firing.

Good Tuesday morning.

NEW … THE NRCC SPIKES THE FOOTBALL … The House GOP election arm has this new memo about its wins in 2020: "Just how dominant was House Republicans' performance? Republicans won 28 of the 29 most competitive House races as projected by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight." The memo

A message from Morgan Stanley:

As Election Results Unfold, Markets Eye Outcomes - The U.S. Presidential race outcome is just one element facing markets and the U.S. economy. At the time same, the U.S. hit its highest level of daily new coronavirus cases and uncertainty remains on fiscal stimulus. New perspective on what's next.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN, in a BURGESS EVERETT/HEATHER CAYGLE joint about Dem messaging: "Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said no one in the party could work harder than Schumer but said: 'Chuck has to understand we need to take a strong look at ourselves.' 'I've watched the last three elections: 2016, '18 and '20. We truly should have been in the majority and it didn't happen,' said Manchin, who won reelection two years ago in a deep red state. 'Whatever our message is, it hasn't worked. And I would hope that our leadership from the top to bottom understands that. It has not worked. And if we're going down that path again, we're in trouble.'"

THE CORONAVIRUS IS RAGING … 10.1 MILLION Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus. … 238,251 Americans have died.

-- "Coronavirus spread hits record levels in Maryland, Virginia amid national spike," by WaPo's Dana Hedgpeth: "The coronavirus is spreading at record levels across Maryland and Virginia, with a rate of infection that has doubled in recent weeks amid a national spike that shows no signs of slowing.

"Maryland saw a record-high number of infections on Monday for the third consecutive day, leaping past Virginia to record the highest rate of spread in the greater Washington region. Local leaders are considering additional restrictions to battle the rising caseloads, a trend that health experts say is unlikely to reverse ahead of the holiday season.

"The rolling seven-day average of new coronavirus infections on Monday in D.C., Virginia and Maryland stood at 2,727 — the sixth straight daily high, and up from an average of 1,313 daily cases at the start of October.

"Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said Monday that his state has 'reached a critical turning point' in the pandemic. The state's coronavirus test positivity rate exceeds 5 percent for the first time since June 24, while virus-related hospitalizations are at the highest level since June 17."

-- "FDA authorizes Eli Lilly antibody drug that Trump touted, but supply will be limited," by WaPo's Carolyn Johnson: "The first covid-19 treatment to protect people with mild illness from developing severe disease was granted emergency use authorization by regulators Monday evening.

"The drug, a laboratory-brewed antibody that imitates the immune system's attack on the virus, is made by Eli Lilly & Co. Health experts have championed the class of medicine as a powerful tool to change the course of the pandemic and work as a bridge to a vaccine. It is in the same family of medication as an experimental treatment President Trump received when he was stricken with covid-19, the illness the novel coronavirus causes.

-- WSJ: "Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine's Next Big Challenge: Giving It to Enough People," by Max Colchester and Drew Hinshaw: "With Pfizer Inc.'s Covid-19 vaccine on track to be authorized as early as next month, Western governments are facing an enormous logistical challenge: getting enough people shots of new vaccines.

"While previous vaccination programs have spread over years and focused on specific demographics such as children or the elderly, governments are hoping to do something they never have done before and inoculate a majority of the population in a matter of months.

"Even for rich nations with developed vaccination programs, that presents a host of problems including building new databases to track who is getting the shot, working out ways to encourage mass uptake among younger people, ensuring adequate supply and running large-scale inoculation centers where the shots can be safely and quickly administered.

"Those challenges mean that even if a vaccine is soon approved, it could be many months before it is administered to enough people to ease the need for lockdown measures that have been recently reimposed across the West."

-- "Experts say no need to cancel Thanksgiving, but play it safe," by AP's Carla Johnson: "A safe Thanksgiving during a pandemic is possible, but health experts know their advice is as tough to swallow as dry turkey: Stay home. Don't travel. If you must gather, do it outdoors." AP

GETTING THE CREW BACK TOGETHER … NYT'S MICHAEL CROWLEY: "An Obama Restoration on Foreign Policy? Familiar Faces Could Fill Biden's Team": "An Obama redux would be a source of enormous relief to establishment insiders, who are desperate to see seasoned hands regain control of national security. But that likelihood is also causing disquiet among some younger, more liberal Democrats impatient with their party's pre-Trump national security instincts, which they consider badly outdated. …

"They are almost certain to include Antony Blinken, a deputy secretary of state and deputy national security adviser under Mr. Obama who previously worked for Mr. Biden in the Senate; Avril Haines, a deputy at Mr. Obama's Central Intelligence Agency and on his National Security Council; Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama's last national security adviser; and Michèle Flournoy, the Pentagon's top policy official under Mr. Obama."

TRACK THE TRANSITION, SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: The definitive guide to what could be one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Our Transition Playbook newsletter—written for political insiders—tracks the appointments, people, and power centers of the new administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

PLAYBOOK READS

A man pulls his 2-year-old daughter and dog on a boat as they tour his flooded neighborhood in Plantation, Fla., on Monday, Nov. 9, 2020, a day after Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the Florida Keys and flooded parts of South Florida.

PHOTO DU JOUR: A man pulls his 2-year-old daughter and dog on a boat as they tour their flooded neighborhood in Plantation, Fla., on Monday, Nov. 9, a day after Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in parts of Florida. | Carline Jean/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP

AFTER-ACTION REPORT -- DAVID SIDERS: "Biden coalition built on broad but unstable foundation": "Joe Biden has already surpassed 75 million votes, a record total with ballots still being counted. He reclaimed the Rust Belt and expanded his party's geographic reach into two Republican-heavy states, Georgia and Arizona. The defining characteristic of the Biden coalition — the template Democrats will be working from in the midterm elections and in 2024 — is that it's broad. It's also precariously thin.

"The Obama coalition of young people, women and people of color turned out in large numbers for Biden, especially in large metropolitan areas. Biden improved modestly on Hillary Clinton's margins from four years ago across most segments of the electorate, though he appears to have done less well with Latinos. But Biden also relied on support from disaffected Republicans and independents, while containing Trump's massive advantage with working-class whites — a tenuous alliance Democrats will not be able to bank on in future elections.

"In its breadth, the Biden coalition represents a toehold for Democrats to appeal to a variety of voting blocs across the spectrum. But its limitations were laid bare in the party's down-ballot disappointments. It failed to deliver a Senate majority, left the Democratic House majority with a weakened hand and face-planted in legislative contests in states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina. It's an ominous sign for the party as it prepares for runoff Senate elections in Georgia in January and midterm elections in two years."

BUSINESS BURST -- "The Economy's Struggles Will Shape Joe Biden's Presidency," by WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath: "Joe Biden will likely spend much of the next four years trying to make up lost economic ground. Though the economy has recovered from a large portion of the damage caused this spring by the pandemic and shutdowns, the process is incomplete. Many economists expect the next stages to be difficult. The economy is showing signs of slowing after the initial post-shutdown bounce, and recent history points to grinding recoveries, not quick bouncebacks.

"The pandemic is also driving structural shifts in some industries that could permanently change how Americans spend and how companies do business—meaning dislocations for workers as the economy adjusts. 'We have gotten half of a bounce,' said Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economics professor. 'The rest of it is probably going to take another two years or longer.'

"That challenge will shape Mr. Biden's presidency. The president-elect has plans for aggressive new spending programs on clean energy and infrastructure, ambitions to raise taxes on high-income households and a desire to increase regulation of energy and other sectors. But he faces difficult debates with Republicans about what fiscal policy would be effective in the unfinished recovery."

-- "Wall Street braces for climate change scrutiny under Biden," by Zachary Warmbrodt: "Big Wall Street banks, facing the prospect that Democrats will impose new rules to force lenders to deal with natural disasters and rising sea levels, are positioning themselves as eager allies with a Joe Biden administration in fighting climate change.

"Banks are accelerating efforts to get ahead of the issue and make clear to Biden's team that they want a place at the table when decisions are made. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are among the firms that have committed to hundreds of billions of dollars' in investments that they say will reduce carbon emissions. The head of the Institute of International Finance, which represents global financial firms, pledged to Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein that the industry would be 'a willing and active partner' on climate.

"But Biden's win would expose U.S. banks to intense scrutiny for their role in providing billions of dollars of financing each year to fossil fuel production that contributes to climate change. Leading Democrats want to go even further by forcing lenders to abide by disclosure rules and stress tests to make sure they aren't the source of a new crisis. The fear is that destructive climate events – as well as a costly transition to a lower-carbon economy – will wreak havoc on the banks' portfolios and destabilize the financial system."

WAPO'S ELLEN NAKASHIMA: "White House official and former GOP political operative Michael Ellis named as NSA general counsel": "The appointment was made under pressure from the White House, said a person familiar with the matter. … Ellis, who was chief counsel to Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), a staunch supporter of President Trump and then-chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has been at the White House since early 2017 …

"Ellis also has figured in the controversy over Trump's effort last year to pressure Ukraine's president to undertake what a whistleblower said was a politically motivated investigation of Joe Biden and his son Hunter."

MEDIAWATCH -- Josh Barro will rejoin Business Insider as a columnist. He is currently a business columnist for New York magazine. He'll continue to host shows on KCRW. … David Wertime is joining Protocol as executive director, building a China technology-focused team. He most recently has been editorial director for China at POLITICO and author of the China Watcher newsletter, which he'll continue to write for now.

JOIN THURSDAY: A WOMEN RULE ROUNDTABLE : 2020 has been a history-making year for women in politics. Kamala Harris is vice president-elect, a record number of Republican women were elected to Congress and more women of color ran for public office than ever before. Join POLITICO's Elizabeth Ralph, Crooked Media's Shaniqua McClendon, and Winning for Women's Micah Yousefi for a conversation that examines the results for women who ran for office and what progress still needs to be made. REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Amy Smith has joined Leidos as deputy for government affairs and VP for congressional affairs. She most recently was senior director for international operations and policy at Boeing, and is a longtime Hill veteran.

TRANSITIONS -- Kelley McCormick, Deb Eschmeyer and Joanna Rosholm have launched a new consultancy, Original Strategies. McCormick was most recently at Under Armour, Eschmeyer at Eschmeyer Strategies and Rosholm at Snap. … Nathaalie Carey has been named SVP for industry affairs and social responsibility at Nareit. She most recently was executive deputy commissioner at the New York State Department of Labor. …

… BAE Systems has added Tammy Kupperman Thorp as a media director and Branden Cobb as a digital director. Thorp was most recently with CNN, and Cobb was most recently with the XFL's New York Guardians. … The Philanthropy Roundtable will add Jessica Browning as VP of conferences and events and Caitlin Summers as director of conferences and events. They both were previously at the American Enterprise Institute, Browning as managing director of development and strategic events and Summers as director of development events.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Robb Walton, a principal at BGR Group, and Jennifer Walton, VP of federal government relations at Pfizer, welcomed Catherine Mary Walton on Monday afternoon. She came in at 6 lbs, 14 oz. Pic

-- John Stone, a principal at BGR Group, and Lizzie Stone welcomed John "Jack" Edward Stone, their second son, on Thursday.

-- Adam Lustig, manager of state policy at Trust for America's Health, and Meghan Lustig, director of policy and comms at Education Finance Council, on Thursday welcomed Noah Tucker Lustig, who came in at 8 lbs, 2 oz and 20 inches. Pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Alan He, Capitol Hill producer for CBS News. A fun fact about him: "At work I carry around an L.L. Bean tote with my name Sharpie'd on it. The rationale being if it's accidentally left behind at a congressional stakeout it hopefully won't trigger a suspicious package alert. I've never actually forgotten the bag on the Hill, but one time I did leave it at a bar. The girl sitting next to me found it and reached out -- she's now my girlfriend." Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) is 66 … Howard L. Rosenberg … NPR congressional reporter Sue Davis (h/t Tim Burger) … Jim Kuhnhenn, co-founder of WaVe Communications … Mary Jordan, WaPo national political correspondent … Michael Hacker … Amanda Ashley Keating, SVP at the Glover Park Group … Geoff Brewer, editorial director at Gallup … Elizabeth Greener, director of comms at the American Forest Foundation … USA Today's Alan Gomez … energy consultant Howard Marks is 76 … Kate Gould, senior policy adviser to Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) (h/t Heather Purcell) … LaRonda Peterson … Florida International University's Carlos Becerra … Andy Blomme of NeighborWorks America … Elliot Ayres … POLITICO's Jeff Daker and Bryarly Richards … Benjamin Pauker … former Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) is 77 … former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.) is 71 … former Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) is 76 … Cary Justice …

… ABC's Josh Margolin is 5-0 … Harry Giannoulis, president of the Parkside Group (h/t Chris Lapetina) … Kylie Gudzak … Pierce Stanley … Misty Marshall … Jessica (Cole) Buchanan … Julie Weber … Ellen Bredenkoetter … Aaron Brown is 72 … Jeremy Stoppelman is 43 … Raphael Sonenshein is 71 … Brian Romick … Gabriela Ayala … Zach Lowe … Jane Cherry … Andy Diaz … Jean Weinberg of Bloomberg Philanthropies … Tim Garraty … Jared T. Miller … Robyn Patterson … Allison Kelly … Elias Alcantara … Elizabeth Brotherton-Bunch … Nate Treffeisen … Christina Brown … Elizabeth (Ladt) Sullivan … Ben Engwer … Kristin Stiles … Andrew Mims … Jeremy Nordquist, government affairs director at Nebraska Medicine … Blake Deeley … Miranda Lilla … Zachary Enos … Tom Cosgrove … Matt Lough is 51 … Marla Romash … Andrea Dukakis … Wisconsin state Senate Minority Leader Janet Bewley (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Barry Kramer is 78

A message from Morgan Stanley:

Markets Parse Election Results, Jobs Report - Given that the U.S. election outcome looks increasingly like a divided leadership scenario between the White House and Congress, how should investors be looking at asset classes and regions right now? In particular, will government gridlock mean a smaller fiscal stimulus package than in a one-party sweep outcome? On the latest episode of Morgan Stanley's award-winning Thoughts on the Market podcast, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner examine the potential election outcome as well as the implications of a record rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S., concern over future fiscal stimulus and October's jobs report. One key takeaway: Despite the unprecedented amount of uncertainty, the U.S. consumer appears surprisingly resilient, suggesting a willingness to spend during the critical end-of-year shopping season. Listen now.