Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Collision course at COP

Presented by PlasticsTreaty.Org: A newsletter from POLITICO for leaders building a sustainable future.
Nov 12, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Jordan Wolman

Presented by 

PlasticsTreaty.Org

With help from Samantha Latson

THE BIG IDEA

U.S. climate envoy John Podesta speaks during a summit on methane at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan.

U.S. climate envoy John Podesta told reporters that the fight against global warming “is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country.” | Sergei Grits/AP Photo

THE COP MUST GO ON — With less than a week to process President-elect Donald Trump’s downright convincing election victory, climate diplomats around the world are confronting a very different U.S. political landscape at the annual U.N. climate summit.

Many, though, are putting on brave faces at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators are working to land a climate finance deal to help developing countries transition away from fossil fuels and adapt to a warming world.

They have the benefit of having seen this film before — and plan to draw from and bolster the climate response to Trump’s first term, Sara Schonhardt and Karl Mathiesen report.

“We have seen this story,” said Canada’s former climate minister Catherine McKenna. “And when that happened, we saw that the world stepped up.”

On Trump's home turf, states and cities are planning to step up their action to fill the void they expect to be left by the incoming administration's policies. Outgoing Democratic Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee, who will be at COP29 and spoke with reporters last week, called Trump's election a “speed bump” and said “progress is going to continue in the United States and will be “driven by states.”

“This second time, of course, there is a feeling of frustration, because at the end of the day, this is a global process,” said Sandra Guzman, founder of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean and a former negotiator for Mexico. “And every single party, particularly those that are major emitters like the U.S., play an important role.

“But to be very fair and honest, I don't see the same sadness and deep concern that I saw the first time,” she added.

And “the fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country,” President Joe Biden’s climate envoy John Podesta told reporters.

Still, there’s a sense of uncertainty hanging over this year’s talks and what’s to come next. The Biden administration quietly abandoned a push for steeper climate pollution reductions, Sara, Karl and Zia Wiese report. And Trump is a known climate denier with long-running antipathy toward international policy agreements.

He’s already vowed to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accords — again, and possibly quicker this time. And there’s a sense that there’s even more on the line now: For one, climate change has arguably only gotten more serious since Trump last wielded power, and the U.S. has made significant gains through clean energy investments and deployment under Biden that the president-elect has threatened to unwind.

That could strengthen the hand of China, which has aggressively pursued low-carbon technologies and could build upon its economic powerhouse status to take a greater leadership role in global gatherings.

For some diplomats, the problem is that at a moment when the world needs more global cooperation, Trump is setting up an environment in which there will be less.

“I believe the main problem Trump’s election brings is the reduced multilateral cooperation. Also protectionism,” a European diplomat told POLITICO last week after being granted anonymity to share their political views.

WASHINGTON WATCH

THE PICK IS IN — Trump’s personnel selections are coming in fast and furious, and we now know who he wants to lead the Environmental Protection Agency: Former Rep. Lee Zeldin.

The pick was surprising both for who was chosen and when the selection was made, perhaps reflecting the prominent role that energy deregulation will play in Trump’s second term in the White House, Josh Siegel and Alex Guillen report.

Zeldin, a New York Republican, will be tasked with carrying out the incoming administration’s attempts to unwind Biden-era climate and air pollution rules and potentially pull back millions of dollars in unspent Inflation Reduction Act funds.

While he’s hardly a household name in environmental circles, Zeldin was a member of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus and Conservative Climate Caucus in Congress, as well as the bipartisan PFAS Task Force. Despite those credentials, he received only a 14 percent lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters, a left-leaning group that ranks members on their environmental voting records.

Still, he might have some more moderate bona fides: During Trump’s first term, Zeldin opposed efforts to expand offshore oil and gas drilling. In early 2018, he joined a bipartisan letter from members of the New York delegation asking for the state’s coasts to be spared from offshore drilling.

A fierce Trump supporter who ran a competitive gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Kathy Hochul, Zeldin could be just who Trump wants helming his energy and environmental agenda.

“I think he has all the ability and political savvy to be a great deregulator,” Myron Ebell, who led Trump’s EPA transition team eight years ago, told POLITICO’s E&E News . “I think he's capable of mastering the technical side of it, but he also will be a great advocate in public for what they're trying to do.”

 

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AROUND THE NATION

CLIMATE BLUES — Blue-state leaders across the country are in the early stages of cobbling together a strategy for resisting Trump’s plans for climate policy rollbacks after he returns to the Oval Office in January. 

Hochul is trying to revive the congestion pricing plan that she shelved earlier this year, asking the Transportation Department whether she can secure federal approval to implement a tolling charge for drivers entering parts of Manhattan without a lengthy environmental review, Jeff Coltin and Ry Rivard report. Trump has vowed to “terminate” the plan.

Meanwhile, Hochul and fellow Democratic governors from California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico and Rhode Island are urging truck manufacturers to help them advance vehicle electrification policies in the face of recent setbacks.

The governors are asking the Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association to back California-style rules that call for phasing out new diesel truck sales by 2036, Alex Nieves reports.

The request reflects concern that slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles is forcing states with clean-truck sales mandates to delay implementation. Oregon and Massachusetts regulators last month announced one-year delays of the zero-emission goals, citing supply shortages and compliant trucks, and New Jersey might follow suit.

The scramble to preserve the targets comes as Trump administration regulators are highly likely to either roll back or decline to enforce clean vehicle standards advanced during the Biden administration.

 

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Movers and Shakers

EXXON'S VIEW — Exxon Mobil Chair and CEO Darren Woods is pushing for stability on U.S. climate policy as Washington prepares for a swing away from climate ambition, Zack Colman reports.

"I don't think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away,” Woods said in an interview with POLITICO. “Anything that happens in the short term would just make the longer term that much more challenging.”

Woods said he opposes carbon border tariffs, which would impose a fee on imports on products with higher carbon emissions than in the U.S. Some Republicans, including Trump’s first-term trade representative Robert Lighthizer, say such a policy would benefit U.S. manufacturing.

“I think it's a bad idea. It's a really bad idea,” Woods said. “I think carbon border adjustment is going to introduce a whole new level of complexity and bureaucratic red tape. I don't think it's going to be very effective.”

He said a regulatory system based on the carbon intensity of products would be a better solution. That would still require the government to enforce some basic accounting standards and a framework assessing the carbon dioxide footprint across a range of products.

“Regulation will play a really important part of that,” Woods said.

 

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YOU TELL US

GAME ON — Welcome to the Long Game, where we tell you about the latest on efforts to shape our future. Join us every Tuesday as we keep you in the loop on the world of sustainability.

Team Sustainability is editor Greg Mott and reporter Jordan Wolman. Reach us at gmott@politico.com and jwolman@politico.com.

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WHAT WE'RE CLICKING

Climate skeptics who had Trump’s ear during his first term have given him their wish list for the next four years, Bloomberg reports.

Carbon emissions from private jets have risen by almost 50 percent in the past four years, according to the Financial Times.

The FT also takes a deep-dive look into how oil and gas companies disguise methane emissions.

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
 

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