| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by The Ridge Wallet | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Biden set for victory (unless he loses) — Somewhat hard to believe it's actually here but Election Day on Tuesday may (or quite possibly may not) tell us whether the Donald Trump political era is over or will continue for four more years. Former vice president Joe Biden maintains a large national lead of around 7 points, which should lead to a convincing win. But it may not. We've learned in this space not to be confident in anything despite giant early voting numbers that would appear to favor the Democratic nominee. (And yes we know Trump losing won't really end the Trump era but that's a subject for another time.) We should get a good sense of how much we will know on Tuesday based on numbers out of Pennsylvania. If Biden's modest lead there holds and it appears the state will get called by late Tuesday or early Wednesday that will likely mean he's on the way to 270 electoral votes and we may not wind up in limbo. If it's too close to call or Trump is ahead in the Keystone State, we could be on the way to another big Election Night surprise or headed into legal battle territory that could drag on for quite a while. The Iowa poll showing Trump with a solid lead in the state freaked Democrats out over the weekend. But it's not really a state Biden needs. He's got strong leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. And taking back Pennsylvania as well would probably mean nothing else really matters. Even Florida. Compass Point's Isaac Boltansky: "We believe the odds favor a modest Blue Wave with Biden taking the White House and Democrats winning a small majority in the Senate, but we are deeply skeptical of anyone speaking with certainty even at this point … In fact, the only outcome we have high conviction for Tuesday is the House staying under Democratic control. Beyond that, nothing is certain." How Trump could still win — Via our David Siders and Anita Kumar: "Everything would have to break exactly right for … Trump to win reelection. But the recipe for an upset is there. Trump is polling within striking distance of Joe Biden in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. "Republicans are gaining on Democrats in the early vote in Florida. If the president can carry the Sun Belt states he won in 2016 and beat Biden in Pennsylvania, he could well hold the White House for four more years." GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Seems like some major stuff going down this week, no? Hold our hand and we will get you through it. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | | | A message from The Ridge Wallet: The Ridge Wallet bridges the gap between style and function with a sleek design, durable construction, and a cool metal exterior. Its RFID blocking keeps your credit cards secure, and it's so compact that it'll fit comfortably in your front pocket — no more big, bulky billfolds weighing down your pants. With over 30,000 five-star reviews, the Ridge Wallet is a better, safer, and more convenient way to carry your cash and cards. Shop Now | | | | | | DRIVING THE WEEK — Well, obviously Tuesday will drive everything. Wall Street can handle pretty much any outcome other than total uncertainty and perhaps protests and violence in the streets. That is the biggest risk. … Fed announcement on Thursday not expected to include any changes … October jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a further slowing to 600K from September's 661K MORE ON WARREN FOR TREASURY — Should Biden win on Tuesday, attention will quickly turn to his Cabinet appointments with the financial industry focusing on the possibility that their nemesis, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), will be nominated for Treasury Secretary. MM still doesn't think this will happen. And we got tons of emails and texts from Wall Streeters over the weekend on the subject, with most suggesting Biden will brush her off citing concerns that the party could lose her Senate seat if she heads to Hamilton Place. That's not really true as Dems have a supermajority in the state legislature and could force GOP governor Charlie Baker to select a Democratic replacement. But it remains a handy excuse. One banker emails: "Saw your good Warren item. But I think Biden has the easiest out in the world – if he gives her Treasury, the MA Republican governor … appoints a replacement until a special election. No way Schumer would let that happen." Another texts on why Biden won't go with Warren: "1. He owes her nothing; she only helped out this campaign when there was no alternative. 2. It would cost him a lot at the beginning of the administration and no real upside. 3. Lots of other places to help progressives. Big stimulus, aggressive climate policies, infrastructure spending." Another emails on our Friday item: "We don't hate her because of her expertise. We hate her because she is fundamentally dishonest and will do anything and say anything to gain power." THANKSGIVING COULD BE COVID TIPPIPING POINT — Our Caitlin Oprysko: "Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned … that the Thanksgiving holiday could be the 'inflection point' of a dangerous surge in coronavirus cases that has already begun. 'Things are getting worse around the country,' Gottlieb said in an interview on CBS' 'Face the Nation,' predicting: 'December is probably going to be our toughest month.'" TRUMP WOULD OVERHAUL CABINET IN SECOND TERM — Our Nancy Cook: "Trump and his top aides are planning a huge overhaul of his Cabinet if he wins a second term, scuttling officials in key health-related and intelligence jobs who Trump views as disloyal, slow-acting or naysayers. "The shift would amount to a purge of any Cabinet member who has crossed the president, refused to mount investigations he has demanded, or urged him to take a different, more strict tack on the coronavirus response. The evictions could run the gamut from senior health officials to much of the national security leadership." | | | | EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | NOWHERE TO HIDE IN ROUGH OCTOBER — Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg Opinion: "That October proved tough for stocks won't come as a surprise to seasoned investors who still remember some quite challenging months in the past. What is notable this time around, however, is that investments meant to mitigate risks and offset some of the declines from equities also lost money. "Understanding why illustrates some of the difficult challenges facing investors in a market greatly distorted by prolonged central bank intervention, and now dealing with weakening economic fundamentals and delayed fiscal policy support." S&P 500 FUTURES FALL AFTER WORST WEEKLY DECLINE SINCE MARCH — Bloomberg's Vildana Hajric and Katherine Greifeld: "Investors in the U.S. equity market remained on edge before a week laden with political and economic risk. "Futures on the S&P 500 fell in Asia trading, extending a loss that reached more than 5 percent over the previous five sessions, as traders awaited the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday and a Federal Reserve decision on Thursday. After the worst week since March, investors braced ahead of a week loaded with events with the potential to move financial markets." THE ONLY CONSENSUS ON WALL STREET IS THAT THE ELECTION WILL BE FELT FOR YEARS TO COME — WSJ's Akane Otani: "Whether markets will prove more orderly after Tuesday's elections is anybody's guess. Investors are heading into what could be the most volatile week for markets all year. "Although national polls show … Biden leading in the presidential race, many money managers and strategists are reluctant to project confidence after being caught off guard by a number of market-jolting shocks over the years, including Mr. Trump's 2016 victory, the U.K.'s Brexit vote and the coronavirus pandemic. About the only consensus across the Street now is that Tuesday's elections will have stark consequences for investors for years to come." | | | | A message from The Ridge Wallet:   | | | | | | BIDEN OR TRUMPCARE? HEALTH PLANS WILL IMPACT THE ECONOMY DIFFERENTLY — Reuters' Ann Saphir: "Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wants to expand the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama's signature healthcare legislation, and then name it after himself. "Republican President Donald Trump wants to end it altogether, and replace it with something that has yet to be defined. An ongoing debate over which approach is better for the economy is partly about price tags. Bidencare is forecast to increase federal healthcare spending by $2 trillion or more over 10 years. Trump's approach is to hold federal spending stable or reduce it." FED TURNS ATTENTION TO ASSET PURCHASES — WSJ's Nick Timiraos: "Federal Reserve officials at their meeting in September reinforced Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that they weren't even 'thinking about thinking about raising interest rates.' "By contrast, they offered little to guide expectations around their monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage securities. Officials aren't preparing to announce any changes after their two-day policy meeting ends Thursday but could begin reviewing contingency plans for possible refinements, according to interviews and recent public statements." | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: No matter who wins this week, a lot will change in the coming months. Advisers to both candidates have been working behind the scenes for months, vetting potential nominees, political appointments, and drafting policy proposals for the first 100 days. Our Transition Playbook newsletter, written for political insiders, tracks the appointments, the people, and the next administration's power centers. Don't miss out. Subscribe today. | | | | | HOW THE WEALTHY WORLD HAS FAILED POOR COUNTRIES DURING PANDEMIC — NYT's Peter S. Goodman: "Like much of the developing world, Pakistan was alarmingly short of doctors and medical facilities long before anyone had heard of Covid-19. Then the pandemic overwhelmed hospitals, forcing some to turn away patients. As fear upended daily life, families lost livelihoods and struggled to feed themselves. "On the other side of the world in Washington, two deep-pocketed organizations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, vowed to spare poor countries from desperation. Their economists warned that immense relief was required to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and profound damage to global prosperity. Emerging markets make up 60 percent of the world economy, by one IMF measure. A blow to their fortunes inflicts pain around the planet." WHY THE U.S. ECONOMY NEEDS MORE AID FROM WASHINGTON — AP's Paul Wiseman: "The U.S. economy is expected to rebound from a disastrous spring. Paralyzed by the coronavirus, economic output collapsed at a 31.4 percent annual pace from April through June — the worst such plunge on records dating to 1947. Growth is believed to have surged back in the July-September quarter. "Yet the economy is still scarred. The Associated Press spoke recently with Timothy Adams, president of the Institute of International Finance, a trade group for the financial services industry that expects the economy to shrink 2.5 percent for 2020 before growing nearly 5 percent in 2021. The interview was edited for length and clarity." TRANSITIONS — Andy Aye is now market president for Colorado at U.S. Bancorp. He most recently held that same role for BOK Financial Corporation. | | | | A message from The Ridge Wallet: The Ridge threw away the manual on what a wallet should look like. They've traded thick, bifold wallets for a slim design with RFID-blocking tech and the perfect space for your cards, cash, and ID - AKA the stuff you actually need. 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