Monday, November 2, 2020

Playbook PM: We’re almost there

Presented by Facebook: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington
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Playbook PM

By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

Presented by Facebook

NEW … THE WHITE HOUSE ELECTION PARTY on Tuesday night is expected to be on the State floor of the White House. The TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is expecting several hundred people, and everyone will have to be tested for the coronavirus.

THE ATLANTIC'S ISAAC DOVERE is your JOE BIDEN pooler today, the last day of election campaigning: "Motorcade arrived at New Castle airport at 10:10. As Biden exited his SUV, he held up his index finger and said 'one more day.' He then boarded his plane, waving just before he entered." Biden is heading to Cleveland

SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.), via HOLLY OTTERBEIN at the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Airport: "Sen. Harris was ... asked by press what her reaction is to President Trump again raising doubts about the integrity of the election in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia specifically. 'I honestly believe he's doing it to distract from the fact that he actually has no record to run on. I've said this many times: We have witnessed the greatest failure of any presidential administration in the history of America, and so he wants to scare people, he wants to distract people, confuse people. But you know what? He doesn't understand that the American people are smarter than that.'"

ABOARD AIR FORCE II, via pooler OLIVIA NUZZI of New York magazine: "Several members of the VP's staff aboard Air Force Two removed their masks upon taking their seats. As a reminder, in the last two weeks there has been a coronavirus outbreak among the VP's inner circle. Asked if the VP tested negative for COVID-19 this morning, a member of the staff said she would 'get back to you[r pooler] on that.'"

-- NUZZI later sent this out to the pool: "Also according to the VP's office, 'as a reminder our plane once on board is off record.' Having never heard of such a policy before, I wouldn't call this a reminder, exactly. I assume the VP's office is displeased that I noted several members of the VP's staff had removed their face masks once seated on AF2 and would like to avoid any future unwelcome observations from your pooler, which I understand, though in practice this gets a bit confusing.

"What if they had redecorated the inside of the plane with fluffy pink seat coverings or something, would that be off the record? Or does this refer only to the behavior and conversations of officials aboard the plane? And if that's the case, what if a conversation starts on the steps and continues while inside the plane? Is it half off the record? I'd also note that such a policy prevents me from making welcome observations, too. For instance, what if someone does something cool or nice? Surely no government would want that to be a state secret, right?"

DEPT. OF THINGS THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN … MAGGIE HABERMAN (@maggieNYT): "The president is making up a conversation where Pelosi read the transcript of his Zelensky call and said 'he didn't do anything wrong' and asked Schiff how he got her into the impeachment inquiry."

-- FWIW: IMPEACHMENT feels like a million years ago …

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE -- DAVE WASSERMAN of the COOK POLITICAL REPORT has made eight final ratings changes -- all in Democrats' favor. That includes Reps. FRENCH HILL (R-Ark.) and MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas) moving from lean R to toss-up, and retiring Rep. KENNY MARCHANT'S (R-Texas) seat moving from toss-up to lean D. More

 

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DEPT. OF WHAT COULD GO WRONG …

-- SEN. @markwarner: "Folks: this is an unusual election. Our intelligence community has warned that the period immediately before and after Election Day is going to be uniquely volatile, and our adversaries will seek to take advantage of that. Don't make their jobs any easier."

-- ERIC GELLER: "The voting technology problems that could trigger panic at the polls," by Eric Geller: "Newly competitive battleground state Georgia is using controversial touch screen voting machines for the first time in a presidential election. In the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where new voting machines malfunctioned last year, several counties have now also configured those machines to speed up ballot-counting in a way that doesn't give voters a chance to hold the ballots in their hands.

"And voting machines could turn out to be the least of the technological problems. Across the country, the servers that store voter data and post unofficial results are vulnerable to temporary outages — snafus that could worsen long lines on Election Day, block or discourage voters from casting ballots or fuel claims of election fraud. … [T]he twofold challenge facing election officials: making sure their equipment works properly and preventing isolated problems from seeding doubt that undermines the entire process."

THE NEVADA INDEPENDENT'S JON RALSTON -- maybe the only person in the only state who can/does accurately call elections based on early vote -- predicts BIDEN will win Nevada, though it's not impossible for President DONALD TRUMP to pull off an upset. The details

Good Monday afternoon.

WE FORGOT SOME PEOPLE in our round-up this morning of House GOP leadership jockeying post-election: Indiana Rep. GREG PENCE is eyeing NRCC chair. … Could North Carolina Rep. RICH HUDSON (R-N.C.) make a run if he survives Tuesday?

DIVE INTO POLITICO'S election results interactives -- including our WAYS TO WIN page, where we've run 32,768 simulations showing how 15 competitive states could swing. (That breaks down to 29,612 ways BIDEN could win, 2,983 ways TRUMP could win and 173 ways they could tie in the Electoral College.)

LATEST IN TEXAS -- REUTERS' @ErnestScheyder: "Breaking: U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Hanen seems skeptical of efforts to reject 127,000 ballots in Harris County, Texas, cast via drive-through voting."

WHAT COMES NEXT … "Election integrity group to spend $6 mil. on post-election campaign focused on vote-counting," by The Washington Times' Ryan Lovelace: "The National Council on Election Integrity, a group organized by campaign finance watchdog Issue One, said Monday it will spend $6 million on an advocacy campaign focused on the post-election period to ensure every vote is counted. …

"The council is bipartisan and lists members as including Democrats such as former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright alongside Republicans such as former Sen. Dan Coats, who previously served as Director of National Intelligence for the Trump administration, and former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist." Washington Times

 

EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.

 
 

THE BLOOMBERG/LEBRON EFFECT -- "Celebrities spent millions so Florida felons could vote. Will it make a difference?" by the Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower and Langston Taylor in Tallahassee: "The multimillion-dollar effort by Michael Bloomberg, LeBron James and other celebrities to pay off lingering court fines and fees for Florida felons could make almost 13,000 of them eligible to vote in Tuesday's election, an analysis by the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald and ProPublica found. …

"Among four of the state's largest counties — Hillsborough, Pinellas, Palm Beach and Polk — about 32 percent, or 1,518, of the 4,700 felons who had their fines and fees paid by the nonprofit Florida Rights Restoration Coalition are registered to vote in the upcoming election … Whether the voters helped by the coalition will actually make it to the polls, however, is unclear. Many still don't know their court debts have been paid off." Tampa Bay Times

VIEW FROM THE LOCAL ELECTIONS OFFICE -- "'It's Just Crazy' in Pennsylvania: Mail Voting and the Anxiety That Followed," by NYT's Trip Gabriel in Kittanning, Pa.: "A county northeast of Pittsburgh is a microcosm of the high tension, confusion and deep uncertainty that have accompanied the expansion of mail-in voting."

TIM ALBERTA in Valencia County, N.M.: "This Place Has Picked Every President Since 1952. Is Its Streak About to End?": "It was bewildering, in a county that has bounced back and forth between parties for nearly 70 years, to meet not a single voter who regretted their vote from 2016. This was the first trip I've taken in which I didn't encounter people expressing buyer's remorse with the president. There were a few people … who might get off the sidelines, but not a single person who was switching teams. …

"I think it probably means Valencia County, the most exceptional voting jurisdiction in America, a place that has resisted political tribalism for so long, is becoming like the rest of the country—predictable, polarized and loyally partisan." POLITICO Magazine

WAPO'S JADA YUAN profiles Sen. SUSAN COLLINS in Portland, Maine: "Last stand of the Republican moderate"

BEWARE THE EXIT POLLS -- "Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year," by FiveThirtyEight's Laura Bronner and Nathaniel Rakich: "The pandemic has undermined the one major advantage exit polls have over other kinds of polls: their ability to survey only actual voters, since exit polls catch respondents as they exit polling locations. …

"To account for this, Edison Research — the polling firm that produces the exit polls used by ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News — has changed its methodology so that the 'exit polls' you see on Nov. 3 will actually be a combination of traditional exit polls of Election Day voters and phone polls of mail voters." FiveThirtyEight

THE PANDEMIC CAMPAIGN -- "Wisconsin Faces a Challenge: Getting Out the Vote When Most People Have Already Voted," by NYT's Reid Epstein in Milwaukee

THE RIFTS THAT WILL ENDURE -- "'You are no longer my mother': How the election is dividing American families," by Reuters' Tim Reid in Los Angeles, Gabriella Borter in Raleigh, N.C., and Michael Martina in Detroit: "In interviews with 10 voters - five Trump supporters and five backing Democratic candidate Joe Biden - few could see the wrecked personal relationships caused by Trump's tenure fully healing, and most believed them destroyed forever." Reuters

LOOMING POST-ELECTION … "U.S. economy faces severe strains after election with Washington potentially paralyzed," by WaPo's Jeff Stein: "This window is typically used by successful presidential candidates to plan for the outset of their administration, but several large economic sectors are bracing to be hit by both an increase in coronavirus cases and the arrival of winter weather. These factors could exacerbate extreme slowdowns in the travel, restaurant and hospitality industries, and further depress an oil industry already roiled by low prices.

"Millions of Americans are also at risk of having their power and water shut off with unpaid utility bills coming due, while protections for renters, student borrowers and jobless Americans will expire by the end of the year absent federal action." WaPo

 

SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH POLITICO FOUR SQUARE: People have been voting for weeks, but Election Day is finally upon us! Join us for a special election night episode of POLITICO "Four Square," where host Eugene Daniels will break down the latest developments from across the country with Chief Political Correspondent Tim Alberta, Chief Washington Correspondent Ryan Lizza, and one of our top political reporters and CNN contributor Laura Barrón-López. Joined by colleagues from across the newsroom throughout the show, expect the group to share the latest exit poll readouts, analyze the closing Trump and Biden campaign strategies, and to share their favorite moments of this long and winding election. Tune in at 9:00 p.m. EST here.

 
 

SCOTUS WATCH -- AP: "High court rejects appeal from Florida death row inmate": "The Supreme Court has rejected an appeal from a Florida death row inmate whose conviction was based in part on the testimony of a controversial jailhouse informant. The justices did not comment Monday in refusing to hear the case of James Dailey, who was convicted in the killing of 14-year-old Shelly Boggio in the Tampa area in 1985."

K STREET FILES -- "Republican lobbyists face business risk: A Biden administration," by Theo Meyer: "On Monday, one of Washington's biggest lobbying firms, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, got a jump on the potential transfer of power, announcing it had hired former Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) away from a rival firm. …

"Most of Washington's biggest lobbying firms in town are bipartisan, with enough Republicans and Democrats on staff to allow them to secure meetings and get their calls returned no matter who's in the White House or in control of Congress. But some smaller lobbying shops that have thrived in Trump's Washington could suffer if he loses and Democrats reclaim the Senate." POLITICO

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION -- "District school system cancels plan to bring some students into classrooms Nov. 9," by WaPo's Perry Stein

CORONAVIRUS RAGING … BIG NYT INVESTIGATION: "In Hunt for Virus Source, W.H.O. Let China Take Charge," by Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo in Geneva and Amy Qin and Javier Hernández in Taipei: "Internal documents and interviews with more than 50 public-health officials, scientists and diplomats provide an inside look at how a disempowered World Health Organization, eager to win access and cooperation from China, has struggled to achieve either. Its solicitous approach has given space for Mr. Trump and his allies to push speculation and unfounded conspiracy theories, and deflect blame for their own mistakes.

"The prospect of an apolitical inquiry into the virus's origins is dwindling. China has extracted concessions from the health organization that have helped the country delay important research and spared its government a potentially embarrassing review of its early response to the outbreak. … The question of where Covid-19 began is especially intriguing because the initial theory, centered on illegal wildlife sales at the Wuhan market, is now in doubt."

-- STAT: "HHS relaxed oversight of problematic Covid-19 tests despite being told of accuracy concerns," by Kathleen McLaughlin

THE NEW COLD WAR -- "Air Force Purchase of Chinese Drones Spurs Security Concerns," by WSJ's Brett Forrest and Gordon Lubold: "The U.S. Air Force recently bought dozens of Chinese-made drones to use for testing and training, according to officials and records of the purchase, fueling concerns about continued Defense Department use of technology that lawmakers consider a threat to national security.

"The Air Force Special Operations Command, the service's highly trained commando division, bought 57 drones in September from Da-Jiang Innovations, or DJI, the world's largest maker of unmanned aerial systems, based in Shenzhen, China. They will be used to train airmen on how they could be used against the U.S. or its allies and how to defeat them, officials said. Air Force officials said the drones are cost-effective and useful, and a DJI spokesman said they don't pose a risk of data loss or theft." WSJ

AFTERNOON SNACK -- The NYT has a quiz breaking down the presidential preferences of the 100 or so most common first names in their polling data. See if you can guess where DONALDS land. NYT

TRANSITIONS -- Gary Gottlieb and Yahya Majali are joining the Albright Stonebridge Group as senior advisers. Gottlieb previously was CEO of Partners in Health. Majali previously worked with Louis Berger, a global engineering and architecture consulting firm.

 

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