Tea leaves  We know. We shouldn’t do it. But we’re going to look at the polls. According to the latest Monmouth poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden holds a 5-point to 7-point lead over Trump, with widespread backing from core Democratic constituencies, including young voters and people of color, offsetting small gains by Trump among senior voters and in the state’s most competitive counties.
Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin have the latest New York Times/Siena College poll numbers, which show Biden leading Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin. As Adam Serwer says, “You’d definitely rather be Biden than Trump looking at these, but we’ll find out Tuesday.” At the very least, “From this final assessment especially on how new and infrequent voters are breaking heavily for Biden, it is hard to see how any candidate could come into Election Day in a stronger position,” tweets Steven Smith.  On that note, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has something to say: I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win. For starters, a 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too. (“This piece should come with a trigger warning,” tweets Brian Banks.)
The point is, “It's not over until it's over,” as Ryan Lipton says, and who knows when that will be. Because as Maggie Astor reminds us at The New York Times, We Have Never Had Final Results on Election Day. “In reality, the scenario Mr. Trump is outlining — every vote in a modern election being ‘counted, tabulated, finished’ by midnight — is not possible and never has been,” she writes. “No state ever reports final results on election night, and no state is legally expected to.” Meanwhile, three sources tell Jonathan Swan of Axios that Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears “ahead” on election night. Mark Shea frames it a little differently: “Moron plans to shout ‘Dewey Wins!’ as his Victory Strategery.” Stunning confession  And now, let’s hear from “Ben Ginsberg, central GOP figure in Florida recount: ‘Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the Republican Party. People have spent a lot of time looking for it, but it doesn’t exist.’” Michael Luo links to that Washington Post op-ed by leading GOP election lawyer Benjamin Ginsberg, My party is destroying itself on the altar of Trump. “This. Not just this. But definitely this,” tweets Soren Dayton.
Jane Mayer says it’s a “Stunning confession by top GOP election lawyer: voter fraud is a fraud devised to suppress votes - we knew, but brave that he admits it,” and Matt Bai calls it “An important and courageous piece.” On the media, the election and beyond Of course, the media plays a major role on Election Day, and at the NBC News Decision Desk, Stephanie Perry, Charles Riemann and John Lapinski explain how they call races on election night 2020. In her Washington Post column, Margaret Sullivan writes that Election Day will be the media’s D-Day. The skill we need most is the one we’ve never mastered. That skill is...wait for it...No, really. Wait for it. You can do it. And in his column, Ben Smith of The New York Times says It’s the End of an Era for the Media, No Matter Who Wins the Election. “Will Twitter buy Substack? Are tech bros going to fund their own tech-friendly outlets? Will Zucker, Baquet, Baron, and others announce their retirement? @benyt on what the news business might look like after the election,” tweets Nicholas Jackson. “Burying news like ‘Twitter has talked about acquiring Substack’ in a column about broader issues is how big US newspapers used to break tech news 10 years ago. Not seen it in a while,” notes Martin Bryant. Also from that piece, Jon Christian highlights this “Nice little nightmare of a paragraph.” This is all really, really bad So, was anyone actually able to take advantage of that extra hour of sleep over the weekend? Or did it just turn out to be an extra hour of tossing and turning in moderate-to-intense panic? Well, here’s some more news to keep you up. In a new piece for The Washington Post, Jeff Stein details how the U.S. economy will face severe strains after the election with Washington potentially paralyzed. On Twitter, he highlights some of the grim milestones ahead of us: “After election, US faces ‘dark winter’: — Enormous unemployment programs 4 millions to expire — Protections 4 renters, student borrowers end — ACA at Supreme Court — Gov shutdown Dec 11 — 40% restaurants, 66% hotels face closure — 1M travel jobs at risk.” Translation: “This is all really, really bad,” tweets Chase Woodruff.  Add this one to the list: Zeke Miller of AP News reports that Trump suggested he will fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after Tuesday’s election, as his rift with the nation’s top infectious disease expert widens while the nation sees its most alarming outbreak of the coronavirus since the spring. Trump made the suggestion at a campaign rally in Florida as his supporters chanted “Fire Fauci.”
And speaking of Trump supporters, over the weekend, as Neil Vigdor, Jesse McKinley, Emma G. Fitzsimmons and Sydney Ember reported at The New York Times, Trump defended the Texas drivers who surrounded a Biden campaign bus on Friday, while his supporters blocked traffic in New York and New Jersey. You might recall that “Last May and June, demonstrators in NYC were repeatedly penned, pepper sprayed and arrested for blocking streets late at night without much traffic. But you block major bridges and highways midday and no arrests, no towing of cars, nada?” Michael Powell. In case you were wondering, “No arrests,” Molly Hennessy-Fiske confirms. Chilling and well-reported A new visual investigation by Stella Cooper, Evan Hill, Dmitriy Khavin and Arielle Ray of The New York Times examined video and social media from over a hundred interactions between armed groups and BLM protesters in 2020 and found that these groups often get a pass from the police. Watch ‘I Am On Your Side’: How the Police Gave Armed Groups a Pass in 2020. Sam Bagenstos says, “I basically never watch video stories, but this chilling and well-reported account is worth your 8 minutes.” Go figure  Jennifer Jacobs has a new piece at Bloomberg revealing how Trump’s Dismissal of Covid Risk Paved Way to White House Outbreak. Matthew Miller highlights a few choice bits: “New from @JenniferJJacobs on Trump and the virus, including: - Trump used medical wipes labeled ‘not for use on skin’ to scrub his hands. - At the White House he shunned wearing a mask. ‘Take that f---ing thing off,’ he said more than once.”
Since the White House didn’t take basic steps to investigate its Covid-19 outbreak, The New York Times worked with geneticists to sequence the virus that infected two of its journalists exposed during the outbreak, providing clues to how it may have spread. James Glanz has that story, Tests Show Genetic Signature of Virus That May Have Infected President Trump. “VIRUS DETECTIVE — The White House said the source of the outbreak there was ‘unknowable.’ Not so, say the scientists who swabbed my nose and sequenced the genome of the infection that made me sick,” tweets one of those journalists, Michael D. Shear. “A lot of things are unknowable if you make no effort to know anything,” Robin Henig quotes from the piece. “@nytimes @jamesglanz made an effort, unlike the curiosity-free administration, and found out something about the White House super spreading event. Go figure.” Good things  As a big fan of Bookshop.org, we love to see this: Alison Flood of The Guardian reports that after a hugely successful launch in the US, the socially conscious alternative to Amazon has accelerated its UK plans and goes online this week in partnership with more than 130 shops. “Hurrah for the independents! Just in time for UK lockdown 2.0,” tweets Grace Harrison. Adds Nick Petrie, “This is a great, uplifting story and excellent news for anyone needing books for the coming weeks and wanting to support their local bookshop!”
New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern has appointed the country's first Indigenous female foreign minister. As CNN’s Julia Hollingsworth reports, four years ago Nanaia Mahuta, who is Māori, also became the country’s first female member of parliament to wear a moko kauae, a traditional tattoo on her chin. The country’s previous foreign minister, Winston Peters, is also Māori. And “Just because we all need a happy story to read,” as Tish Wells says, from Jennifer Hassan at The Washington Post, The very British story of Kevin, the pandemic peacock. “Never thought I’d have to reach out to retired England football player Teddy Sheringham to ask if he had lost a peacock, but here we are,” she shares. Maite Fernandez points out, “It’s hard to think of good things brought about by the pandemic but Kevin the peacock is one of them. Wonderful story by the one and only @GuinnessKebab.” Pretty awesome weird news  Moving on from peacocks to whales, here’s another good thing, courtesy of BBC News: Whale sculpture catches crashed Dutch metro train. The gist: Thanks to a fortuitously placed art installation, a metro train that crashed through a barrier at the end of the tracks near Rotterdam was left suspended dramatically in the air — instead of plummeting 10m (32ft) into the water below.
That’s right: “Save(d by) the whales,” tweets Jordan Hoffman. Or “Magnificent fluke!” as Thomas Penny puts it. Honestly, though, “too many metaphors,” (and puns) tweets Lili Loofbourow. “At least this weird news is pretty awesome weird news,” as Miquel Hudin says. In fact, Alessandro Speciale thinks “This is the best story of the year, on so many levels. And I hope this will silence for good those who say that huge whale statues aren’t useful.” Adds Amy X. Wang, “please let this story, and exclusively this story, carry the tenor of the week.” A few more - Conor Pope has the Irish Times obituary for veteran journalist and author Robert Fisk, who died aged 74. As Pope writes, “Fisk was one of the most highly regarded and controversial British foreign correspondents of the modern era and was described by the New York Times in 2005 as ‘probably the most famous foreign correspondent in Britain.’” He was one of only a few western reporters to interview Osama Bin Laden. The Independent staff pay tribute to the Celebrated Middle East correspondent of The Independent, who was described as “the greatest journalist of his generation.” “A heroic career and an eternal inspiration,” tweets Meena Menon.
- Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Fatima Faizi of The New York Times report that three gunmen stormed Kabul University, killing at least 19. The siege dragged on for six hours as Afghan forces and U.S. commandos hunted the gunmen, who took hostages. The Interior Ministry said the attackers had been killed.
- Johnny Depp has lost his libel case against the Sun over claims he beat ex-wife Amber Heard. As Owen Bowcott and Caroline Davies report at The Guardian, the actor had sued the newspaper publisher for damage to his reputation, and his lawyers said he would most likely appeal against the “perverse and bewildering decision.”
- Because why not, The New York Times took a look at The 2020 Vote Preferences of 102 Common First Names. Brian Feldman is “texting all my guys in the brian chat we’re all on and asking them to stop being knuckleheads.” And Tim Ball has this message for his namesakes: “goddammit tims.” But hey, Karens are backing Biden, 60 percent to 40 percent. Meanwhile, Eli Yokley notices, “Classic Eli erasure, a la those gas station trinkets with names on them. Been living with this all my life!” We feel your pain, Eli.
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Tomorrow’s election is unprecedented for many reasons, and among the most alarming unprecedented factors this year is a flood of false information that largely spreads on social media. On the blog today, 
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