Monday, November 2, 2020

Trade stakes in the election — USTR faces medical supply deadline — USTR suspends Thai imports from GSP

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
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By Gavin Bade and Doug Palmer

With help from Ximena Bustillo and Steven Overly

Editor's Note: Weekly Trade is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Trade policy newsletter, Morning Trade. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Trade experts say there's only one thing at stake in Tuesday's electioneverything.

— The U.S. Trade Representative has until Nov. 28 to modify any existing trade agreement that would bar federal agencies from solely buying certain medical supplies domestically.

— And USTR on Friday suspended one-sixth of Thailand's exports to the U.S. under the General System of Preferences program, which exempts certain trading partners from tariffs.

IT'S MONDAY, NOV. 2! Welcome to Morning Trade, where we're contemplating what our election night comfort food is going to be. Meat and potatoes? Tacos? And what to drink? Let us know what you're doing: gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com.

 

EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Driving the Day

WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR TRADE IN THE ELECTION: In a word, everything.

Over the past four years, President Donald Trump has upended decades of U.S. global trade leadership with his aggressive use of tariffs and willingness to discard old agreements, like NAFTA and a free trade deal with South Korea, to force countries into negotiations.

The continued existence of post-World War II international architecture — which includes the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the WTO — can no longer be taken for granted, despite the United States' leading role in developing the rules-based system.

"If Trump wins, it's hard to see how the multilateral trading system continues in its current form," Michael Smart, a managing director at Rock Creek Global Advisors, told Morning Trade. "Who could be optimistic about fixing the WTO Appellate Body and making other reforms?"

Trump's constant tweeting has injected an unprecedented degree of volatility into trade policy and kept companies on edge over the future of investments they made in China and elsewhere around the world prior to his administration. U.S. trade relations with Europe, Canada, Japan and others also have been challenged like never before.

There's little reason to expect that volatility to cease in a second Trump administration, or for him to drop his "America first" approach that has strained relations with allies.

President Donald Trump is pictured. | Getty Images

ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA - OCTOBER 30: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Rochester International Airport October 30, 2020 in Rochester, Minnesota. With Election Day only four days away, Trump is campaigning in Minnesota despite the recent surge in coronavirus cases in the state. In accordance with state orders, only 250 people will be able to attend the rally with Trump while thousands of others will gather outside the airport to watch on a large television screen. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

If Biden wins, he will face tough trade challenges, particularly with China, in areas such as the country's formidable market access barriers and technology-related national security concerns. But his approach to those issues is expected to be less erratic than Trump's.

"To me, an equally tough but more predictable policy creates an opportunity for constructive engagement in other areas of mutual interest, such as climate," Smart said.

Still, a Biden victory won't return the world to the way it was in 2016.

Having experienced four years of Trump, allies will be wary of depending heavily on the word of the U.S., knowing the next presidential election could turn everything on its head.

And Biden also would face pressure at home not to appear weak on China or to allow "multilateralism" to trump (no pun intended) U.S. national interests.

USTR FACES 30-DAY DEADLINE ON ESSENTIAL MEDICINES: USTR has until Nov. 28 to modify any existing trade agreement that would bar federal agencies from only buying domestic supplies of a list of essential medicines and medical devices released by the FDA on Friday.

Trump ordered the USTR to take the action, "to the extent permitted by law," in an executive order he signed on Aug. 6. The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America has warned the order "could disrupt the global pharmaceutical supply chain" and jeopardize the private sector's ability to respond to the coronavirus pandemic by creating shortages.

FDA's new list includes 223 drugs and biologics — including the active ingredients in Tylenol and Advil; pain drugs like morphine, rabies and tetanus vaccines; and multiple antibiotics to treat infections.

Medical devices are also on the list, including 96 considered to be medical countermeasures, such as instruments for monitoring vital signs and vaccine delivery devices.

U.S. imports of pharmaceutical products totaled $149 billion in 2019, which was second only to imports of passenger cars. The U.S. trade deficit in pharmaceutical goods last year was close to $89 billion, more than the deficits for crude oil or cell phones.

US SUSPENDS ONE-SIXTH OF THAI TRADE FROM GSP PROGRAM: USTR on Friday suspended more than $800 million in trade from Thailand from the Generalized System of Preferences program, which exempts certain partners from tariffs, saying Bangkok has slow-walked market access for U.S. pork.

"Despite 12 years of bilateral engagement, Thailand has yet to provide the United States with equitable and reasonable market access for pork products," USTR said in a statement Friday.

Broad product list affected: The $817 million worth of trade represents about one-sixth of Thailand's exports to the U.S. under GSP. The list of exports that will be removed from the program after Dec. 30 includes plants and food products as well as industrial and consumer goods.

The suspension comes after an investigation requested by the National Pork Producers Council in 2018. The trade group praised the USTR decision.

"For years, Thailand has taken full advantage of special U.S. trade benefits, while imposing a completely unjustified de facto ban on U.S. pork. This is hardly a reciprocal trading relationship," said NPPC President Howard "AV" Roth. "We thank the administration for taking this action and hope it results in fair access to the Thai market for U.S. hog farmers."

Other GSP actions: USTR also closed GSP eligibility reviews for Georgia, Uzbekistan and Indonesia, as well as a GSP designation review of Laos. It also opened two new GSP reviews for Eritrea and Zimbabwe based on worker rights concerns.

"The concerns in Eritrea relate to forced labor associated with Eritrea's national service requirement as well as a lack of freedom of association," USTR said. "Labor rights concerns in Zimbabwe relate to a lack of freedom of association, including the rights of independent trade unions to organize and bargain collectively, and government crackdown on labor activists."

WYDEN BLASTS TRUMP'S USMCA ENFORCEMENT: The top Senate Finance Democrat on Friday accused Trump of failing to enforce key provisions of his new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Morning Trade's Doug Palmer reported.

Wyden wrote that Mexico and Canada are not meeting their obligations in areas such as agriculture and customs. He also criticized the administration for not bringing any action against Mexico for failing to meet implementation requirements or to correct labor rights abuses at certain individual production facilities.

"It is critical that Mexico and Canada meet their obligations if American workers, farmers, businesses, and consumers are to reap the full benefits you promised they would receive from USMCA," Wyden said in his letter.

If Democrats take control of the Senate, Wyden will take over as chair of the Finance Committee. Enforcement of the USMCA will be in the committee's court after Jan. 20.

HUAWEI DEMANDS GOVERNMENT COMMUNICATIONS: Huawei has sued the Trump administration for failing to turn over government communications and other records the Chinese technology behemoth requested more than a year ago under the Freedom of Information Act.

In a complaint filed Friday, Huawei said its efforts to obtain the documents have "been met with a remarkable degree of stonewalling — conduct that is wholly inconsistent with FOIA's policy of promoting government openness and transparency."

The requested documents include correspondence among federal agencies, including the departments of Justice, Commerce, Treasury and State, related to trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and the nations' battle for supremacy in 5G technology.

Huawei is also seeking copies of communication between the government and journalists. Some of the records requested pertain specifically to the arrest and indictment of Meng Wanzhou, a Huawei executive and daughter of the company's founder, who has been charged with bank fraud and other financial crimes.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: No matter who wins this week, a lot will change in the coming months. Advisers to both candidates have been working behind the scenes for months, vetting potential nominees, political appointments, and drafting policy proposals for the first 100 days. Our Transition Playbook newsletter, written for political insiders, tracks the appointments, the people, and the next administration's power centers. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

 
 


International Overnight

— Sen. Josh Hawley and other Missouri and Kansas lawmakers urge Kansas City International Airport not to buy passenger bridges from China.

— POLITICO Europe looks at what a Joe Biden win would mean for the U.K.

— Hong Kong on Friday challenged the U.S.'s new "made in China" policy at the WTO, POLITICO Pro reports.

Bloomberg lists the ten people it thinks are most likely to influence a Biden administration's economic policy.

— As Apple's fourth quarter earning fell below expectations, Asia Pacific stock dropped, CNBC reports.

— The U.S.'s biggest export crops are seeing high demand in time for farmers to show their potential support for Donald Trump on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.

Reuters takes a look at what is at stake in five foreign markets with each election outcome.

— Investors are betting on reflation trade that will raise stocks after the election, according to Financial Times.

THAT'S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com; gbade@politico.com; xbustillo@politico.com; jyearwood@politico.com and pjoshi@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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