Friday, October 23, 2020

FX Strategy 23 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 23 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and NZD are the top gainers today, up 0.14% and 0.05% versus the dollar while NOK and GBP are the top losers, down -0.16% and -0.14% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.036, up 0.4bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.28, down -0.3bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.578, down -1.0bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.843, down -1.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24843.0, up 0.23%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23516.59, up 0.18%. The Kospi was trading at 2360.81, up 0.24%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5807.55, up 0.38%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3173.65, up 0.07%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12536.95, down -0.05%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5781.8, up 0.33%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3166.0, up 0.13%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3444.0, down -0.15%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.27, down -0.45%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 40.41, down -0.57%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Japanese Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash (Actual 46.6 v Forecast 47.6) and Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Actual 48 v Forecast 48.5) for October. We also saw the most recent US Presidential Debate. UK Retail Sales data for September was also released earlier this morning with YoY (Actual 4.7% v Forecast 3.4%) and MoM (Actual 1.5% v Forecast 0.5%). We look forward to Markit Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI data for France at 07:15 GMT, Germany at 07:30 GMT, Euro Area at 08:00 GMT and UK at 08:30 GMT. Russian Interest Rate Decision follows at 10:30 GMT and Mexican Retail Sales with MoM (Previous 5.5% v Forecast 3%) and YoY (Previous -12.5% v Forecast -8%) for August is released at 11:00 GMT.

 

This afternoon session starts with Bundesbank's Mauderer speaking at 12:00 GMT alongside the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) press conference. Brazilian Current Account (Previous $3.72B v Forecast $3.5B) and Foreign Direct Investment (Previous $1.43B v Forecast $1.9B) for September follows at 12:30 GMT. US Markit Composite PMI Flash (Previous 4.7% v Forecast 3.4%), Services PMI Flash (Previous 54.6 v Forecast 54.1) & Manufacturing PMI Flash (Previous 53.2 v Forecast 53.2) is released at 13:45 GMT and concludes the afternoon session.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1832 for 1.1776
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1832 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1776 enter at 1.1814. Above 1.1832 to open 1.1854

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.3103 for 1.3018
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.3103 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3018 enter at 1.3075. Above 1.3103 to open 1.3136

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.05 for 104.31
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.05 and we see a dip to 104.31 enter at 104.81. Above 105.05 to open 105.21

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7134 for 0.7093
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7134 and we see a dip to 0.7093 enter at 0.712. Above 0.7134 to open 0.715

 
 
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