News: The next big fight to watch in Michigan

Monday, December 2, 2024

The next big fight to watch in Michigan

Dec 02, 2024

TOP LINE

A slate of competitive races are on the horizon in battleground Michigan. But both parties have to get through critical leadership changes first.

Following this year’s elections, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes announced that she won’t be running for another term. Days later, President-elect Donald Trump tapped Michigan Republican Party Chair Pete Hoekstra to be ambassador to Canada. Presuming that Hoekstra gets confirmed by the Senate, both parties will be under new leadership for the 2026 elections — a pivotal time in the state.

Pete Hoekstra speaks.

Republicans will need a new state party chair in Michigan if Pete Hoekstra, the current chair, is confirmed to be the ambassador to Canada. | Paul Sancya/AP

There will be intense jockeying for governor, as Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Republicans fell short of claiming a Senate seat this year, but will be targeting Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who’s up for reelection in 2026. And Democrats are licking their wounds after losing the state House — breaking their much lauded trifecta that they won in 2022 — but will have a shot at winning it back in two years when both legislative chambers are on the ballot.

State parties don’t necessarily make or break campaigns, though having a chair with strong fundraising chops can help build infrastructure for candidates.

Barnes has been leading the Democrats since 2019. But for Republicans, it hasn’t been long since their latest leadership battle.

Early last year, Republicans chose Kristina Karamo — an election denier who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state in 2022 — to be their leader, defeating a crowded field that included a Trump-backed candidate. Her tenure was quickly marred by party infighting, physical altercations and money struggles because of donors turned off by Karamo, culminating in a vote to remove her from the post and replace her with Hoekstra, who earned Trump’s support. That then turned into a monthslong legal battle over who the rightful chair was, with a judge eventually ruling in Hoekstra’s favor.

Republicans will want to avoid that drama again. Hoekstra’s successor will have to continue to rebuild from the challenges during (and preceding) Karamo’s tenure — and they likely won’t have as much national help as the state party did this year because of the presidential election.

State Sen. Jim Runestad, who describes himself as one of the most conservative members of the state legislature, is in the running to replace Hoekstra. In his announcement, he vowed to unify grassroots activists and party donors, adding that he will “end this dominance of the swamp of the political consulting class” and bring “transparency and accountability and integrity to the role of the state party chair.” Political consultant Scott Greenlee, who came in third place when Karamo won the chairship last year, told MPRN’s Colin Jackson that he is also considering a bid. Meshawn Maddock, the former co-chair of the party who faced charges for being a fake elector for Trump in 2020, could run as well.

Others are likely to jump in before the state party’s convention early next year. But if Trump gets involved, his pick will likely have a leg up.

On the Democratic side, state party leadership told MLive’s Michael Kransz that a handful of candidates are on their radar to replace Barnes, including former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, who lost to Republican Rep.-elect Tom Barrett in open MI-07 last month by around 4 points, as well as community organizer Al “Bj” Williams and Kevin Tolbert, the chair of the 12th Congressional District. Mark Ludwig, who is chair of the state party’s rural caucus, has already announced his bid.

Happy Monday! I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2025 election: 337

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — There’s just one outstanding House race left: Republican Rep. John Duarte’s in CA-13. Former Democratic state Assemblymember Adam Gray is slightly in the lead. Republicans’ majority is at 220, with Democrats at 214, after Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks narrowly won reelection following a recount in IA-01 and Democrat Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in CA-45.

PULL UP A CHAIR — Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Ben Wikler launched his bid for chair of the DNC. New York state Sen. James Skoufis, who’s marketing himself as an “outsider” compared to the other contenders, also announced his bid over the weekend. Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Ken Martin — who’s seen as the early frontrunner, POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider report — and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley are also in the running.

2026 WATCH — Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills did not rule out running against Republican Sen. Susan Collins in 2026, the Portland Press Herald’s Randy Billings reports. Mills is term-limited, and Collins has said she plans to run for reelection.

… White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs deputy director Dan Koh “has been making — and fielding — calls about a possible campaign” against Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton in MA-06, per POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity. Moulton drew the ire of some in his party after comments he made regarding transgender youth in sports after the election.

COURT WATCHIN’ — The race for the North Carolina state Supreme Court is still underway. Republican Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin requested a recount in his race against Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, who pulled ahead of him in the final stretch of vote counting. That recount — which is unlikely to change the result of the election — was expected to be done before Thanksgiving, but “technical difficulties in Wilson County are causing delays,” WRAL’s Will Doran and Laura Leslie write. County officials are set to meet today to finish the recount. But under state law, the loser is allowed to request a second recount, which could prolong the race being called.

Griffin is also “claiming that state officials shouldn't have counted ballots from approximately 60,000 voters,” Doran and Leslie note. “That request is currently in front of the State Board of Elections but could also turn into a court battle, adding further uncertainty to the race. State elections officials don't plan to take action on Griffin's claim until at least early December.”

RECOUNT IT — A recount will be held for the unsuccessful Alaska ballot measure that would have repealed open primaries and ranked choice voting in the state. After the vote not to repeal the system narrowly prevailed, the Alaska Republican Party — which is against ranked choice voting — said it would request the recount, which has to be completed within 10 days.

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “Ireland dodges bullet as Dublin voters narrowly reject gangland boss” — from POLITICO Europe.

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