WINTER CYBERLAND — When it comes to fending off criminal hackers and state-backed cyber spies, December is shaping up to be one of the most consequential months of 2024. The 118th Congress, the Biden administration and the Trump-Vance transition each are set to make critical personnel and policy choices this month that will ramify well past 2025. Here’s what we’re watching. — Defense bill time: Congress has just three weeks to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, the must-pass defense policy bill on which major cyber policy fixes regularly hitch a ride into law. Two of the bigger changes that appear within reach this year? First, both the Senate and House have included language in their versions of the NDAA requiring an independent study on the need for a dedicated cyber service. Advocates hope that could lay the groundwork for Trump to green-light a keyboard-centric counterpart to the Army, Navy, Air Force and Space Force. In addition, leading cyber lawmakers in both chambers have signaled their interest in a bill that would empower the Office of the National Cyber Director to trim redundant federal cyber regulations. While it’s not in either version of the NDAA yet, it is perhaps the last-best landing spot for the bill, which the White House is also making a late push for. – The EO … and the election report: The Biden administration is aiming to issue an ambitious new executive order on cybersecurity this month that will cover everything from supply chain security to federal contracting and zero-trust, as we previously reported. The detailed order — rumored to be up to 60 pages — could significantly alter the landscape for federal cybersecurity. And while Donald Trump could theoretically scrap the sweeping mandate on his first day in office, the National Security Council is betting it can get buy-in for its changes by focusing on technocratic issues that draw support across the aisle. The Intelligence community, for its part, faces another big December deadline: per a 2018 Trump executive order, it has until the week before Christmas to complete an assessment on the nature and extent of any foreign interference efforts in the 2024 election. – Transition time: Having finally signed an agreement with the White House, the Trump-Vance Transition team is ready at last to get started on the nuts-and-bolts work of the changeover — albeit on a compressed timeline and with some key restrictions around its ability to receive classified briefs from current administration officials. All that policy work may nonetheless be secondary to the big personnel question looming over D.C.: Who will Trump pick to head CISA and the Office of the National Cyber Director, a pair of roles that could shape U.S. cyber policy for the better part of the next half-decade?
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