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Monday, November 11, 2024
The Nasdaq 100's New Highs Are Bigger Than You Think
Three weeks ago, I spoke at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research's annual conference... The main theme of my presentation was what to expect from this year's presidential election. And the following quote captures my view perfectly...
The Nasdaq 100's New Highs Are Bigger Than You Think
By Pete Carmasino, chief market strategist, Chaikin Analytics
Three weeks ago, I spoke at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research's annual conference...
The main theme of my presentation was what to expect from this year's presidential election. And the following quote captures my view perfectly...
It's a stock picker's market. Our objective is to remain fixed on price trends, not party trends.
Elections, while entertaining, produce many outcomes, all of which can be seen in sector trends before, during, and after elections.
Validation from technical factors is more important now than ever.
No matter which way you lean, the election is now over. And Donald Trump claimed a landslide win.
For us as investors, the resounding victory is good news. It means we shouldn't encounter any bumps in the road for the transition because there's nothing to contest.
Regardless, the quote above says it all...
We see different trends before, during, and after elections. And other trends play out all the time – whether we're coming off an election or not.
That's what trend following is all about...
Sure, you can try to anticipate the business cycle. But you don't need to do that.
The sector trends do that for you.
For example, a few weeks ago, the top three sectors in the Power Gauge were financials, industrials, and utilities. Today, it's tech, financials, and communications.
Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is now making new highs...
It's a huge reversal of fortunes for the index. And the change is likely bigger than you realize...
With Donald Trump headed back to the White House, one "left for dead" corner of the stock market is now ripe for 5 times to 10 times gains in the months ahead. Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, and Ray Dalio are all buying in. So don't miss your opportunity to take advantage as the world wakes up to what's really happening. Click here for the full story.
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The Nasdaq 100 struggled for months to post new highs. That's because of its market-cap weighting.
In other words, it relies heavily on seven mega-cap tech stocks...
1. Alphabet (GOOGL) 2. Amazon (AMZN) 3. Apple (AAPL) 4. Meta Platforms (META) 5. Microsoft (MSFT) 6. Nvidia (NVDA) 7. Tesla (TSLA)
These stocks are also known as the "Magnificent Seven." But they haven't fared well lately. In fact, before last week's post-election surge, some had broken their long-term trends.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is the market-cap-weighted exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that tracks the Nasdaq 100. And the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index Fund (QQEW) is the equal-weighted version.
By comparing the two ETFs, you can clearly see the trend I'm talking about...
Before last week's massive post-election rally, QQEW previously made a new 52-week high on October 14. The ETF closed on its high that day.
But until last week, QQQ hadn't made a new closing high since July 10. That was a few weeks before the market sold off due to the Japanese yen "carry trade" unwinding.
So we know that the Big Tech stocks were holding the Nasdaq 100 back. But now, because of how the election played out...
These stocks are soaring again.
That could mean big moves ahead for the tech-heavy index. So keep your eye on it.
Good investing,
Pete Carmasino
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.62%
9
16
5
S&P 500
+0.43%
149
277
67
Nasdaq
+0.12%
32
57
11
Small Caps
+0.74%
659
989
269
Bonds
+1.27%
Utilities
+1.92%
1
25
4
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks have become Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Discretionary
+7.51%
Energy
+6.46%
Industrials
+6.03%
Information Technology
+5.92%
Financial
+5.47%
Communication
+4.09%
Real Estate
+2.74%
Health Care
+1.65%
Materials
+1.44%
Utilities
+1.34%
Staples
+0.84%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Innovative Technology Services
41
56
2
Over the past 6 months, the Innovative Technology subsector (XITK) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +7.03%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #4 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor
OLO
Olo Inc.
SEIC
SEI Investments Comp
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
AXON
+28.68%
FTNT
+9.99%
PODD
+9.4%
TSLA
+8.19%
MSI
+7.37%
Losers
AKAM
-14.4%
ABNB
-8.66%
MTD
-7.19%
ANET
-7.09%
MRNA
-6.86%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
LYV
ARMK
AGO, IAC
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
NRG NRG Energy, Inc.
Q3
$1.85
Beat by $0.92
RBA RB Global, Inc.
Q2
$0.71
Beat by $0.07
BAX Baxter International Inc.
Q3
$0.80
Beat by $0.02
* * * *
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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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