WHERE THE MATH STANDS: Trump’s stated plans would cost about $8 trillion over a decade, according to a middle-ground estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — and that’s even including close to $3 trillion in new revenues from the expansive tariffs that the former president has talked up. Barrasso, who's also on the Senate Finance Committee, noted on “Meet the Press” that Republicans would look to pull back on some of the spending approved by Democrats in recent years — though reversing some of the policies enacted under President Joe Biden, like the green energy subsidies from the 2022 tax-and-climate law, might be easier said than done. And both Barrasso and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who was asked a similar question on “Fox News Sunday,” talked up the economic gains they said were spurred by the Trump tax cuts. Here’s going to be the issue for Republicans next year: It’s already well established that even some of their own members believe they won’t be able to cut taxes as much as they want in 2025, because of deficits that are approaching $2 trillion a year. But there’s a flip side there: Just extending the tax cuts that Republicans already have on the books is projected to cost $4 trillion or more over a decade — meaning that anything short of that would feel like a de facto tax increase to the public. And let’s be honest: Is it likely that Trump would be satisfied with just keeping the status quo on tax cuts, and not pushing the envelope further? This is all why, even before Republicans had such a successful election, they were talking about alternative budget baselines that might make tax cuts look more palatable — and why, after the election, there are discussions about trying to get official credit for Trump’s proposed tariffs. HELLO FROM THE OTHER SIDE: Of course, Democrats would love to face the policy riddles that come with full control. It’s an especially bitter pill for the left that they’ll have such little leverage for the 2025 tax negotiations. Progressives have been preparing for months now, sharpening messages and organizing at the grassroots level — believing Democrats could more fully turn a polling advantage on higher tax burdens for the rich and corporations into more substantive policy victories. Now, progressive organizations are vowing to hold the line in 2025 against extending the expiring Trump tax cuts for the better off. “We'll hold elected officials accountable if they attempt to redirect trillions from working families to the wealthy and big corporations,” said David Kass of Americans for Tax Fairness. There’s no doubt that progressive messaging after 2017 was at least one reason that TCJA never became particularly popular with the public. But while it’s still early, it’s not clear yet how much of a role that Democrats and the left will be able to squeeze out for themselves during next year’s tax talks. Lindsay Owens of Groundwork Collaborative said that progressives and Democrats need to do some digging to find out why voters of more modest means swung toward Trump in this election — even as they believe that their agenda should be the more attractive one. “We ended up looking like the party of the bosses,” said Owens. “We need to show that’s not the case, and help give voters buyer’s remorse.”
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