Monday, November 11, 2024

Get ready for post-election ag debates

Presented by Stronger America Through Seafood: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Agriculture examines the latest news in agriculture and food politics and policy.
Nov 11, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Weekly Agriculture Newsletter Header

By Grace Yarrow and Meredith Lee Hill

Presented by 

Stronger America Through Seafood

With help from Doug Palmer

The U.S. Capitol building is seen in Washington.

Top agriculture negotiators haven’t made any real progress in the past few months on a new farm bill reauthorization. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

QUICK FIX

— Lawmakers are gearing up for major leadership changes in ag negotiations in 2025 as they try to hammer out some farm bill or relief deal by the end of the year.

— President-elect Donald Trump’s ag transition team is ramping up efforts soon to decide on top USDA roles.

— Mexico’s new president likely won’t abandon the country’s restrictions on genetically-modified corn despite reports that the U.S. had won a landmark trade case attacking those provisions.

IT’S MONDAY, NOV. 11. Welcome to Morning Agriculture. We’re your hosts Grace Yarrow and Meredith Lee Hill. Send tips to gyarrow@politico.com and meredithlee@politico.com. And don’t forget to follow us at @Morning_Ag.

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A message from Stronger America Through Seafood:

America is missing out on the benefits of raising more sustainable seafood in U.S. waters, including $877 million in economic contributions and thousands of jobs on land and sea. Through legislation, Congress can reduce our $17 billion seafood trade deficit and unlock America’s blue economy by supporting the expansion of fish farming in U.S. federal waters. It’s time for Congress to establish a pathway forward for open ocean aquaculture. Learn more.

 
Driving the day

HOUSE ELECTION WATCH: Most House and Senate Agriculture Committee members successfully won their reelection bids, avoiding a major shake-up in rank-and-file membership.

Thus far, only Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost their races. Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) conceded on Sunday in a major hit to House Democrats' hopes of winning a House majority. A handful of incumbents — like Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.) — are still waiting for results.

But expect significant changes in ag leadership due to election results  — and changes in who has leverage for the rest of 2024 as members try to nail down some kind of a farm bill by the end of the year.

Congress is coming back this week (send your hosts good vibes and caffeine) for the first time post-election. Here’s what we’re looking out for.

ON THE FARM BILL: Ag lawmakers haven’t made any real progress in the past few months on a new farm bill reauthorization.

Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) has yet to make a major push to clinch a deal before she retires in January. But, lawmakers expect her to put out a statement on her position in the coming days after Democrats’ shellacking in the elections.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), the incoming top Senate Ag Democrat, however has been telling people she wants to get a farm bill deal done in the lame duck so it’s off lawmakers’ plate next year.

What to watch: Ag lawmakers will likely push for adding a one-year farm bill extension to a federal funding stop-gap measure or another must-pass bill before the end of the year, along with some money for commodity farmers reeling from economic losses and the so-called farm bill “orphan programs” around conservation, energy, research and more.

Disaster aid: Funding that ag lawmakers are seeking for farmers hit by major natural disasters will be a fight that goes through the appropriations committees.

2025 GOP goals: Beyond the lame duck session, Republicans are targeting climate-friendly agriculture dollars and future nutrition spending as potential pieces of any 2025 budget reconciliation package, as Meredith reported Friday.

IRA $: On the table in those talks is rescinding roughly $13 billion in unspent so-called climate-smart agriculture dollars that Democrats have hailed as a major achievement as part of their signature climate law.

President Joe Biden's administration has already deployed billions in such funding as subsidies to pay farmers to adopt greener practices, in order to achieve his goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030.

Democrats used the same budget process to approve the original $20 billion in initial climate-agriculture funding as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which they passed on party lines.

SNAP: Republicans are also considering using the package to limit future updates to the Thrifty Food Plan, which serves as the basis to calculate SNAP benefits.

That could happen if Republicans win a trifecta of power by retaining their majority in the House, as they’re in a strong position to do after Caraveo’s defeat Sunday, enabling them to use the budget process to pass a sweeping reconciliation package with GOP-only votes next year.

That would spur deep backlash from Democrats, who would have little power to stop it.

Trump’s position: Republican lawmakers have been discussing their plans for a 2025 reconciliation package for months now. Trump has indicated that he supports clawing back unspent IRA dollars.

TRANSITION 2024

TRANSITION WATCH: The jockeying for senior USDA roles under a second Trump administration is quickly picking up post-election.

The full transition team is still assembling. But Brian Klippenstein, who pulled together Trump’s USDA transition in 2016, and Carly Miller, Rep. Harriet Hageman’s (R-Wyo.) chief of staff, are already working on the effort, as Meredith wrote.

Meanwhile, ag lobbyists, Trump allies and GOP lawmakers are weighing in on their top recommendations for USDA roles behind the scenes. That list, as loyal MA readers know, includes the following former Trump officials and industry reps: Kip Tom, Ted McKinney, Gregg Doud and Mike Conaway.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said publicly that Trump will give him a role in health or food policy so he can “go wild,” as Trump put it, on carrying out his Make America Healthy Again agenda. (Some early ideas Kennedy has tossed around have included taking fluoride out of water and reducing food additives like seed oils.)

Reuters reported over the weekend that Kennedy is actively reviewing the resumes of candidates to fill out the Trump administration’s top health jobs.

Another reminder: A decision on Agriculture Secretary or other USDA roles could be weeks or even months away. During his first administration, Trump didn’t nominate former USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue until Jan. 19. It was the last Cabinet pick he announced, one day before his inauguration.

 

A message from Stronger America Through Seafood:

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US-MEXICO AG RELATIONS

MEXICO CORN CASE RULING SOON: Mexico’s new president Claudia Sheinbaum is unlikely to abandon the country’s restrictions on planting genetically-modified corn or using that grain to make tortillas, despite reports that the United States has won a trade case attacking those provisions, a Tufts University researcher told our Doug Palmer.

“Mexico's restrictions barely affect U.S. corn exports, and as a recent survey confirmed the restrictions are very popular with the public,” said Timothy Wise, a senior research fellow at the university’s Global Development and Environment Institute. “No one in Mexico wants to be eating GM tortillas, and I seriously doubt the government will abandon its policies, even with a negative ruling from the trade panel."

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebard told reporters on Friday that Mexico and the United States received a preliminary ruling on Oct. 22 from the three-person panel hearing the dispute under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mexico provided feedback last week and is waiting to see how the panel responds, he continued.

Bloomberg reported that the final ruling is now expected on Dec. 14, instead of this month. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to questions about the case.

U.S. officials and industry leaders have repeatedly conveyed serious concerns about Mexico’s biotechnology policies that threaten U.S. corn producers’ market opportunities in Mexico, a major importer of U.S. corn and other products.

Row Crops

— California farmers are enjoying a pistachio production boom, with much of the product heading to China. (The Associated Press)

— MA exclusive: A report out tomorrow from the Directions Group and Aimpoint Research shows a lack of “legislative certainty” around pesticides and herbicides, including glyphosate, could cause lost farm revenue and supply chain issues, per an executive summary first shared with MA.

— Thousands of federal bureaucrats have lived through one Donald Trump administration. Many are not sure they can or will survive a second. (POLITICO Pro)

THAT’S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line and send us your agriculture job announcements or events: gyarrow@politico.com, meredithlee@politico.com, marciabrown@politico.com, abehsudi@politico.com and ecadei@politico.com.

A message from Stronger America Through Seafood:

The U.S. imports up to 85% of its seafood – half of which is estimated to come from farms in other countries – and ranks only 18th in aquaculture production globally. The lack of a pathway for open ocean aquaculture in U.S. waters is costing the nation $877 million in economic contributions and thousands of jobs across the seafood supply chain, as well as for farmers of crops used in fish feed.

As climate change impacts wild fisheries and Americans seek more sustainable protein sources, aquaculture is one of the solutions. Working in complement with the fishing sector, aquaculture would boost domestic seafood production, ensuring American families have access to affordable, locally raised seafood.

By passing legislation to support open ocean aquaculture, Congress will position the U.S. to once again be a world leader in seafood production — strengthening our economy and ensuring a more secure seafood supply chain. Learn more.

 
 

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