News: What we’re watching for in the Q3 campaign finance reports

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

What we’re watching for in the Q3 campaign finance reports

Oct 15, 2024

Presented by

TOP LINE

It may feel like a lifetime ago, but it was only in Q3 that President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.

That shakeup was just one of the many notable events that happened over the last three months for campaigns up and down the ballot. Today, we’ll get a closer look at how down-ballot campaigns were impacted on the money front.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at East Carolina University in Greenville, N.C., Sunday, Oct. 12, 2024. | Susan Walsh/AP

Campaign finance reports filed today will come from congressional candidates, joint fundraising committees and some super PACs, and will cover from the beginning of July through the end of September. Harris and former President Donald Trump will also submit their monthly totals for September next Sunday. And the finance fun doesn’t stop there — all candidates are required to submit their pre-general reports covering Oct. 1-16 on Oct. 24.

Before all of those reports roll in, here are the questions that are on our minds:

— How much did Harris actually boost down-ballot Dems? Down-ballot Democrats claimed that the change at the top of the ticket injected new energy into their races — both in terms of enthusiasm and hard dollars. And now we’ll be able to see the receipts.

Q3 receipts typically ramp up, given that it’s after most primaries and the general election matchups are set. But the early results demonstrate that momentum did benefit down-ballot Democrats. According to a new analysis from Democratic digital firm MissionWired, first shared with Score, small-dollar fundraising among the around a dozen down-ballot campaigns and committees it works with saw a 136 percent increase from Q2 to Q3. For context: Q3 grassroots fundraising in 2020 saw a 149 percent increase over the previous quarter, and a 43 percent increase in 2022.

The analysis found that big days for the Harris campaign — like the day she joined the race, the Democratic National Convention and the debate between her and Trump — were also significant fundraising days for Democrats further down the ballot.

It’s an “encouraging trend that a busy quarter for presidential breaking news and overall fodder around the historic nature at the top of the ticket has translated to incredible enthusiasm — resulting in fundraising spikes in response to those moments,” MissionWired senior vice presidents Kati Card and Patrick Burton write in the memo.

— Can Republicans overcome their fundraising gap? Democrats running in House and Senate races have consistently posted stronger fundraising hauls compared to their Republican counterparts. In Q2, Republicans brushed off Democrats’ high fundraising, pointing to the substantial totals GOP candidates had in their reserves.

We’ve gotten a sneak peek into some battleground Democrats’ Q3 totals, as far more announced their hauls ahead of today’s deadline compared to Republicans. They’ve set a high bar: Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown , one of the most vulnerable Democrats this year, said he raked in a whopping $30.6 million, and a handful of non-incumbent Democratic House challengers have said they’ve raised well over $1 million.

— How are super PACs shaping the presidential race? Outside groups have been playing a prominent role on both sides of the aisle this year — though Trump has a wide-ranging constellation of super PACs boosting his bid, including some relatively new players we’ll get a look at today. Keep an eye out for America PAC, the Elon Musk-backed group, and Preserve America PAC, a super PAC backed by GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson, which ramped up its spending for Trump in recent months.

It’s Tuesday. Looking for even more campaign coverage? You’re in luck! We’ve just launched a blog at politico.com/2024. We’ll be posting daily to bring you the latest developments, scoops and analysis for the last three weeks of the campaign.

Have something you think should be included? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2024 election: 21

Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

A message from TelevisaUnivision:

The cost of living (73%) is the number one polling issue among Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania. Leverage TU likely voter data to refine your approach, tailor messaging to resonate culturally, and forge impactful connections. For vital insights into the Pennsylvania primary and Hispanic voter trends, visit hispanicvote.univision.com.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

SENATE SCRAMBLE — Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s main outside group focused on the upper chamber, “has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents” — and all but one Republican is running behind Trump in battleground states — according to an internal polling memo POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick obtained . “Republicans are still favored to take control of the chamber, and their data brought some hopeful news with tightening races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But other pickup opportunities, namely Maryland and Michigan, are moving in the wrong direction. And ... Brown, one of the two incumbents running in a state Trump won in 2020, looks surprisingly strong in Ohio.”

Ally also got her hands on another polling memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which found slightly better results for Republicans in Ohio and Michigan — though they're still close contests. Both memos suggest that Montana is trending Republicans' way, while Nevada, Arizona and Maryland are not, Ally notes.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers took the stage for their second and final debate last night, where they fought over “their positions on guns, electric vehicle regulations, Iran, abortion and the Southern border,” The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke and Beth LeBlanc write.

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — ARIZONA — Harris has 47 percent and Trump has 45 percent on the full ballot in a Wall Street Journal poll conducted by GBAO and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (600 registered voters, Sept. 28-Oct. 8, MoE +/- 4 percentage points). The other WSJ state polls have the same sample size and MoE, and show results on the full ballot.

Trump narrowly leads Harris 50 percent to 45 percent on the full ballot, per The New York Times/Siena College. Head-to-head, Trump has 51 percent and Harris has 46 percent (808 likely voters, Oct. 7-10, MoE +/- 3.9 percentage points).

… GEORGIA — Harris comes in at 46 percent and Trump at 45 percent, per WSJ.

… MICHIGAN — Harris earns 47 percent and Trump earns 45 percent in the WSJ survey.

… NORTH CAROLINA — Trump has 46 percent and Harris has 45 percent in the WSJ poll.

… NEVADA — Trump has 47 percent to Harris’ 42 percent, per WSJ.

… PENNSYLVANIA — Trump has 46 percent and Harris has 45 percent in the WSJ survey.

It’s also tight in a poll from NYT/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena, where Harris has 49 percent and Trump has 45 percent on the full ballot. She has 50 percent and he has 47 percent head-to-head (857 likely voters, Oct. 7-10, MoE +/- 3.8 percentage points).

… WISCONSIN — Harris comes in at 46 percent to Trump’s 45 percent in the WSJ poll.

AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 48 percent to 41 percent in the NYT poll.

FL-Sen — Republican Sen. Rick Scott has a lead over former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 48 percent to 41 percent, in a poll from Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted for NBC6 and Telemundo 51 (625 likely voters, Oct. 1-4, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

NE-Sen — An internal poll from Republican Sen. Deb Fischer’s campaign conducted by Torchlight Strategies shows her with a slight lead, unlike polls from independent Dan Osborn and his allies. Fischer has 48 percent and Osborn has 42 percent (600 likely voters, Oct. 5-8, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points).

PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick are in a close race, with the incumbent at 48 percent and McCormick at 44 percent, per the NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll.

CA-41 — Republican Rep. Ken Calvert and Democrat Will Rollins are tied at 45 percent in an internal House Majority PAC poll conducted by GSG (500 likely voters, Oct. 3-6, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

CA-49 — Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has 46 percent and Republican Matt Gunderson has 45 percent in an internal NRCC poll conducted by 1892 Polling (400 likely voters, Oct. 5-8, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points).

MI-07 — Former Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett earns 47 percent to former Democratic state Sen. Curtis Hertel’s 43 percent in an internal Cyngal poll conducted for Barrett’s campaign (405 likely voters Oct. 6-8, MoE +/- 4.85 percentage points).

NJ-07 — Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has 50 percent to Democrat Sue Altman’s 48 percent in an internal DCCC survey (386 likely voters, Oct. 8-9, MoE +/- 5.0 percentage points).

WI-01 — Republican Rep. Bryan Steil leads former Democratic Rep. Peter Barca 52 percent to 42 percent in an internal WPA Intelligence poll conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund (411 likely voters, Oct. 8-10, MoE +/- 4.8 percentage points).

A message from TelevisaUnivision:

THE CASH DASH

RAKING IT IN — Speaker Mike Johnson brought in $27.5 million in Q3, including more than $19.4 million for his committees and $8.1 million for members and candidates. His campaign said that is the “highest amount raised by a Republican Speaker of the House in the third quarter of a presidential election year.”

AS SEEN ON TV

ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are some highlights:

TX-Sen — Truth and Courage PAC, a super PAC boosting Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, hits Democratic Rep. Colin Allred for supporting “ sex change operations in the military, even on kids.” Another spot also attacks him over transgender issues.

… Allred denies the attacks, saying he doesn’t want “boys playing girls sports ” and adding that Cruz is “lying about my record because he can’t defend his own.”

IN-Gov — Democratic former state superintendent of public instruction Jennifer McCormick hits Republican Sen. Mike Braun over abortion and IVF. In another spot, she vows to “repeal the abortion ban and book bans and bring back common sense.”

MO-Gov — Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Crystal Quade features Republicans supporting her because of abortion, while also voicing support for the pro-abortion rights amendment on the Missouri ballot.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I just put my head down and work and ride motorcycles.” — DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.)

A message from TelevisaUnivision:

With Latinos representing the second largest and fastest-growing population in the country, totaling over 36 million eligible voters, it's essential to cut through the noise and connect meaningfully. TelevisaUnivision stands as the paramount force in Spanish-language media, offering an extensive multiplatform presence encompassing news, sports, cultural events, TV, radio, and streaming services and ensuring engagement with Latino audiences across diverse interests. As the 2024 elections approach, winning over Latino voters is paramount, and TelevisaUnivision is the key. Utilize our unmatched reach to ensure your message resonates effectively with the influential Hispanic electorate, securing the crucial support necessary for success. In the race for victory, TelevisaUnivision's expansive reach and deep connection with the Latino community are indispensable. To maximize your outreach and engagement strategies, visit hispanicvote.univision.com.