| | | | |  | | By Phelim Kine, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | 
If Taiwan’s former President Tsai Ing-wen arrives prior to the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, she risks becoming an object of political grandstanding by GOP and Democratic lawmakers seeking photo ops with the former two-term president. | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Taiwan’s former President TSAI ING-WEN is expected to come to the U.S. in the coming weeks, two people familiar with her travel plans tell NatSec Daily. If that happens, look for some roiling of fragile U.S.-China ties amid the tensions of the U.S. presidential election season. Tsai is planning to visit the U.S. sometime after her current trip to the European Union — with stops in the Czech Republic, Belgium and France — which concludes later this week, the individuals said (we granted both anonymity to speak about internal plans that have not been announced). Tsai has described her EU outreach as designed to “strengthen our relationships with fellow democracies.” The White House and Taiwan’s diplomatic outpost in Washington declined comment. Beijing objects to the presence of current and former senior Taiwanese officials on U.S. soil and is hyper-sensitive to any contacts they have with U.S. counterparts. Beijing’s ultimate reaction could depend on who Tsai meets with, as well as the timing of her visit. If Tsai arrives prior to the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, she risks becoming an object of political grandstanding by GOP and Democratic lawmakers seeking photo ops with the former two-term president to burnish their tough-on-China credentials. If she lands in the U.S. following the election but prior to the presidential inauguration her presence may tempt the president-elect — either DONALD TRUMP or KAMALA HARRIS — to seek an in-person meeting to underscore U.S. support for Taiwan. Trump upended a diplomatic taboo by accepting a congratulatory call from then-President Tsai after he won the 2016 presidential election. Neither of the candidates’ campaigns responded to requests for comment. Either option will infuriate the Chinese government, which vilified Tsai as a pro-independence advocate during her two terms as president which ended when the island’s current President LAI CHING-TE took office in May. The U.S. “greenlighting this ‘visit’ is essentially acting with Taiwan to connive at ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists’ political activities in the United States…China firmly opposes and strongly condemns it,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson LIU PENGYU in a statement. The Chinese government has already lashed out at European countries over hosting Tsai for meetings ahead of Tsai’s visit to the Czech Republic on Monday, but so far to no avail. Czech Republic President PETR PAVEL responded to those warnings by meeting with Tsai on Monday.
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The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | PRESSURING THE ISRAELIS: The Biden administration is publicly warning the Israeli government that future U.S. aid hinges on whether it addresses the ongoing humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza, as Eric reports today. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN wrote to Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT and warned that Israel has 30 days to show it is addressing concerns about lagging humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip or risk facing severe limitations on future U.S. military assistance. The letter, previously reported by CNN, follows the shocking images of an Israeli strike on the grounds of central Gaza’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. Patients in tents on the grounds of the hospital burned alive, per images widely circulated on social media. The National Security Council told news outlets the strike, which Israel has defended, was “deeply disturbing” MELONI TO LEBANON: Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI says she plans to travel to Lebanon in a visit that underscores mounting fury in Europe at Israel after Israeli forces fired on U.N. peacekeepers positions in Lebanon in recent days, our own ELENA GIORDANO reports. Italy and France both provide a significant number of troops to the U.N. mission in Lebanon, which has been caught in the crossfire of escalating firefights between Israel and Hezbollah militants. Meloni has been one of Europe’s most outspoken supporters of Israel amid its controversial campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and now Hezbollah in Lebanon , both which have been marked by a high toll in civilian casualties. But the Italian prime minister still sharply rebuked Israel over firing on U.N. positions. "We believe that the attitude of the Israeli forces is completely unjustified," she told the Italian parliament in a speech, referring to the incidents as a “blatant violation” of the U.N. mandate for the peacekeeping mission. UKRAINE FEELS FORGOTTEN: Ukraine is frustrated with the degree of support Israel continues to receive from the United States, even as Israel and Ukraine stare down similar strategic threats from ballistic missile attacks. As our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, Robbie and PAUL McLEARY report (for Pros!) , Kyiv sees the continued direct support for Israel, which has included the U.S. shooting down Iranian missiles headed towards Israel in recent months, as evidence of a “double standard.” Kyiv, however, hopes that over time, allies will agree to shoot down missiles and drones over Ukraine as part of their efforts to deter Russian aggression. Yet from the U.S. perspective, the risks of escalation associated with providing Kyiv that same degree of support are just higher. “The tough answer that Ukrainians may not like to hear but is unfortunately true is that we can take the risk of shooting down Iranian missiles over Israel without triggering direct war with Tehran that could lead to nuclear war,” said a senior U.S. Senate aide. “There’s a lot more risk in trying that with Russia.” PANDA DIPLOMACY RETURNS TO DC: After almost a year-long vacancy, China’s diplomatic footprint in Washington has recouped two of its most important players. Giant pandas BAO LI and QING BAO arrived at Dulles International Airport this morning to begin a 10-year diplomatic tour at the National Zoo. The three-year old pandas will quarantine at the zoo for the next month before going on public display. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | HARRIS’ VOTERS WOES: Harris is struggling to win over key swing state voters with cultural ties to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. As our own EMILIO CASALICCHIO reports , Polish American voters in Pennsylvania aren’t buying the Harris campaign’s arguments that a second Trump presidency would come at the expense of Poland and that Trump would abandon Ukraine. Many Polish American voters in Pennsylvania, Emilio found, are more focused on domestic priorities, and some say Harris’ entreaties to the 800,000 Polish American voters in the state may fall flat. And the Pennsylvania troubles continue. Even Ukrainians in Pennsylvania are split on the candidates, The Washington Post’s JOSH ROGIN reports. “Despite Trump’s disparagement of Ukraine and his coziness with Putin,” Rogin writes, “inside the Ukrainian community he still enjoys significant support.” Many believe Trump would be able to broker a peace deal that benefits Ukraine and deters further Russian aggression. Meanwhile in Michigan, Harris’ struggles with Arab American voters continues. As our own EMMY MARTIN reported yesterday, Arab American PAC, a large political committee for the Arab American community in Michigan, urged voters to reject both Harris and Trump, arguing both “blindly support the criminal Israeli government led by far right extremists, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” P.S. We’re 21 days from Election Day. Keep up with all the action in our new live blog. We’ll cover the latest — plus tell you who’s winning the day, bring you exclusive Q&As and provide expert analysis. Stay with us at politico.com/2024.
| | | CYBER ABCs: Cyber stakeholders are worrying that K-12 education is lagging behind in implementing key security measures to ward off hacks and other digital threats. As our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity write , officials at the PACE Forum acknowledged that there’s a growing gap between federal initiatives to bolster classroom and educational cybersecurity and the on-the-ground realities in America’s schools, per a summary of the gathering shared first with Morning Cybersecurity. School districts are not adopting more secure forms of communication or two-factor authentication and initiatives are running into friction with institutional culture. The public expression of worries comes as schools have become a major target of malign cyber actors. As our own JOSEPH GEDEON writes, K-12 districts have surpassed hospitals, government offices and other public-sector targets to become the most frequent targets of cyberattacks, according to the most recent State EdTech Trends report, and more than half of the breaches can be traced to compromised cyber vendors.
| | FRANCE’S BUDGET BLUES: France is not going to meet its pledge of more than $3 billion in aid to Ukraine. As our own LAURA KAYALI and CLEA CAULCUTT report, Defense Minister SÉBASTIEN LECORNU told French lawmakers today that France will provide more than $2 billion in aid to Kyiv, but will fall short of a promised $3.27 billion to support to Ukraine’s war effort. France had previously been criticized by other allies for not doing as much to provide Ukraine with material aid, especially in contrast with Germany and other large European neighbors. But France is also facing a ballooning deficit and accompanying budgetary freeze, as French officials seek to rein in spending. The news is another setback for Kyiv, which will see reduced direct support from Germany this year as well. Paris is expected to still provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000 fighter jets in the first half of 2025 despite the budget battles.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HOGAN’S FRIENDS: The Maryland Senate campaign of former Republican Gov. LARRY HOGAN on Wednesday is planning to hold a fundraiser at a lobbying firm which once represented the U.S. parent company of an Afghan telecom that former employees and Afghan government officials said paid off the Taliban as it fought the U.S., our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in. With contribution levels ranging from $1,000 to $5,000, the campaign is holding a “Hogan Happy Hour,” whose “hosts and special guests” include six S-3 Group lobbyists, according to an invitation. One of the hosts, S-3 partner JOHN SCOFIELD, several years ago represented Telephone Systems International, the parent company of Afghan Wireless — which POLITICO reported in 2022 allegedly paid the Taliban to ensure its towers and other equipment weren’t destroyed in areas the Taliban controlled during the U.S. presence there. (The company denied the allegations at the time.) Scofield and S-3 Group didn’t respond to requests for comment. Asked for comment, Hogan spokesperson MIKE RICCI said in a statement: “We live in a dangerous world and POLITICO’s national security newsletter should focus on actual threats we face — not campaign oppo dumps.”
| | | EXPLOSIVE RESPONSE: North Korea is taking its opposition to reunification with South Korea to a whole new level. As the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG report, Pyongyang blew up roads and rail lines that, while unused since the Korean War, theoretically link the two halves of the Korean peninsula together. The demolitions are seen as a response to North Korea’s accusation that South Korea flew drones over the Hermit Kingdom’s capital city of Pyongyang. CANADA’S SHOWDOWN WITH INDIA: A major diplomatic row has strained India’s ties with Washington’s northern neighbor, following Canada’s decision to expel Indian diplomats from the country. Canada’s police revealed they have evidence linking members of India’s government to the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada and other alleged crimes, as our colleague KYLE DUGGAN reports . India responded in kind by kicking out Canadian diplomats, who have until the end of this week to leave the country. The flare-up in tensions puts the Biden administration in an awkward bind. Canada is one of the United States closest allies and most important trade partners, while at the same time Washington is looking to boost ties with New Delhi to balance against China.
| | | | — MELISSA ZELIKOFF is returning to the National Security Council as a special adviser on Sudan. — President JOE BIDEN appointed MICHAEL GUEST, PAMELA SPRATLEN, CAROLINE TESS and RICARDO ZÚNIGA , to the Commission on Reform and Modernization of the Department of State. The commission, created by Congress, will provide recommendations to lawmakers and the White House about how to modernize and improve the operations of the State Department. — Former National Security Council staffer RAMON ESCOBAR has joined global consulting firm Actum as managing director. He was previously director of Western Hemisphere strategy at the National Security Council.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Doing a Gaza in Lebanon isn’t the answer — KATHLEEN MCINNIS and ALEXIS DAY, Center for Strategic and International Studies: What difference does it make? — REID SMITH and JASON BEARDSLEY, Foreign Policy: The U.S. must learn to leave Iraq
| | — Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: The Navy's 2024 navigation plan with Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI — Georgetown University's Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, 12 p.m.: Tunisia's elections: Entrenched authoritarianism and the struggle for democracy — Truman Center, 1 p.m.: Book discussion on "Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security" — Henry L. Stimson Center, 1 p.m.: Assessing opportunities for protection of civilians in Sudan — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, 2 p.m.: Extended deterrence in Asia — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: China's evolving nuclear policy: What it means for U.S. security and international stability Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose trips also roil fragile China-U.S. ties. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is working to mitigate the damage of Heidi’s travels.
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