| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard | MILTON RECOVERY OVER THE WEEKEND … As Floridians faced long lines for gas, Gov. Ron DeSantis began offering it up for free in areas affected by the deadly storm, reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout … He also said the state would help with debris removal while FEMA will reimburse the full price, per the Tampa Bay Times. On Sunday, President Joe Biden was in St. Pete Beach surveying the damage. It marked the third time that DeSantis did not appear alongside the president during his briefing, reports POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro , though Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) were there … The president used the stop to announce $94 million in federal grants to Florida, which will help make electric grids more resilient … As for the business of Washington, House Speaker Mike Johnson said it would be “premature” for Congress to return to Capitol Hill ahead of the election to pass disaster aid, per POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy. … CNN has a good rundown of what FEMA aid people can now apply for in the wake of Hurricane Milton … And the IRS will extend the tax-filing deadline for residents of disaster areas, reports the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
|  Former President Donald Trump arrives for his campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on July 09, 2024 in Doral, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | Good morning from Tallahassee and welcome to Tuesday. Former President Donald Trump will be in Doral tomorrow for his town hall with Univision, one of the largest Spanish-language broadcasters in the U.S. Trump’s appearance in Florida before an audience of undecided voters doesn’t indicate his campaign thinks he’s in danger of losing the state. But Univision’s headquarters happen to be in a location that’s friendly toward the former president and near Trump National Doral golf course outside Miami. The appearance comes soon after President Joe Biden was in Florida surveying hurricane damage and as both state and national Democrats have been pointing to energy on the ground ever since Vice President Kamala Harris rose to the top of the ticket. On the eve of the town hall, the Republican Party of Florida provided Playbook with a fresh set of polling in which they conclude that “Trump’s victory in Florida is assured,” finding Trump leads Harris in Florida by 7 points (51 percent to 44 percent). The main data point ahead of his Univision town hall shows Trump leads Harris 56 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters in the state . The GOP polling firm The Tarrance Group did the survey, using mostly live phone interviews and also text-to-web, among 818 registered voters statewide from October 5 to 8, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. "Our polling shows what any sane observer already knows: Florida is not in play for Kamala Harris and the Democrats," RPOF Chair Evan Power said in a statement. "President Trump has a strong lead over Kamala Harris here, and this has been consistent in both public and private polling for months." Hispanic voters are a fast-growing part of the electorate that comprise roughly 15 percent of voters nationwide and 20 percent in Florida. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) predicted in Pennsylvania on Monday that Republicans would see a “record number” of Hispanic voters this election cycle, reported NBC News. And a New York Times/Siena College national poll published over the weekend shows that even while a majority of Latino voters plan on voting for Harris, her support was “in dangerously low territory for Democrats.” Trump's support has risen from 2016, even though he uses incendiary language to talk about unauthorized immigrants and promises mass deportations and to end birthright citizenship if elected. Danielle Alvarez, Trump campaign senior adviser, credited Trump’s strength among Hispanic voters to his policies on the economy, education and crime and public safety. Also key, she said, was Trump’s posture toward socialist dictatorships in Latin America that many families living in Florida escaped before moving here. “He has demonstrated leadership and he has provided great results for every American, especially Hispanic Americans: low unemployment, high homeownership, more money in our pockets,” she said. But the RPOF poll also found that the issue of abortion ranked third-highest among all Florida voters’ priorities, at 10 percent, at a time when Democrats have been leaning in heavily on that front and as Floridians prepare to vote on the question of abortion rights within the state in November. The top issue was immigration and border security at 20 percent, and the economy and jobs was second at 14 percent. Harris’ town hall with Univision was last week in Las Vegas, with Nevada being a key battleground state where, like Florida, one in five voters are Hispanic. Harris faced questions about immigration, health care and the hurricane response, and had an empathetic exchange with a voter who lost her mother. (Watch the full town here or read this summary from USA Today.) When Harris ran for president in 2019 she supported decriminalizing illegal border crossings but during her 2024 campaign she has focused more on a pro-enforcement message and said she would sign the bipartisan immigration bill into law, which Trump urged Republicans to reject. The Harris-Walz campaign is planning a press conference in Doral ahead of the town hall on Wednesday and they've held several outreach events in Florida to engage Hispanic voters. Trump’s Univision appearances had originally been set to happen last week, but it got postponed as Hurricane Milton barreled toward Florida. A Latino Summit for that same day also had to be postponed given storm preparations. Trump will head to Mar-a-Lago Wednesday night for a massive fundraiser, with tickets ranging from $5,000 to $924,600. FOLLOW ALONG — Looking for more 2024 campaign coverage? We’ve just launched a blog at politico.com/2024. We’ll be posting daily to bring you the latest developments, scoops and analysis for the last three weeks of the campaign. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget in the campaign reporting that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
|  | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | | | 
People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024. | Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo | STATE OF PROPERTY INSURANCE — “Hurricane Milton could cause ‘double-digit billion-dollar’ losses in Florida, insurers warn,” by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout . “The initial expectation is that many private insurers will be able to absorb the losses brought by Milton. But the cumulative one-two punch of first Hurricane Helene two weeks ago followed by Milton could result in significant enough damages that it washes away the progress in stabilizing the insurance market frequently cited by Gov. Ron DeSantis and top Republicans. Mark Friedlander with the Insurance Information Institute, an industry association, said insurers are still awaiting loss estimates, which are expected to be significant. ‘We anticipate Hurricane Milton will be a double-digit billion-dollar loss event and the largest insured loss for any U.S. natural catastrophe in 2024,’ Friedlander said.” AN INDEPENDENT LIVING FACILITY STRUGGLES — “‘Nobody came’: Tampa Bay seniors go days without power after Milton,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Shauna Muckle and Justin Garcia . “Although Pinellas County prioritizes assisted living facilities and nursing homes for power restoration, a Duke Energy spokesperson said, independent living facilities, where seniors can live on their own, aren’t prioritized. That quickly becomes a problem for otherwise independent seniors who rely on elevators, chargers for motorized wheelchairs, oxygen tanks and refrigeration for life-saving medications.” NO LIMITS ON REBUILDING — “DeSantis foresees no development limits in areas susceptible to disasters,” by Jay Waagmeester of the Florida Phoenix . “Despite the damage, DeSantis said government prohibitions on rebuilding in areas repeatedly demolished by natural disasters are off the table. ‘The reality is, is people work their whole lives and work hard to be able to live in environments that are really, really nice, and they have a right to make those decisions with their property as they see fit,’ DeSantis said in response to a question during a news conference in Bradenton Beach. ‘It is not the role of government to forbid them or to force them to dispose or utilize their property in a way that they do not think is best for them.’” HEALTH CARE CONCERNS — “Florida hospitals face IV fluids shortage after hurricanes disrupt supply chain,” reports the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Cindy Krischer Goodman. “The disruptions have left Florida hospital systems — like those throughout the US — rationing fluids to make supplies last longer. No one knows at this time how long the shortage will last.” — “As parts of Florida went dark from Helene and Milton, the lights stayed on in this net-zero, storm-proof community,” reports CNN’s Rachel Ramirez. — “More than 500 people were rescued from a flooded apartment complex in Clearwater, Florida,” reports NPR’s Greg Allen. — “Toxic waste from Mosaic plant likely entered Tampa Bay during Milton,” by Christina Georgacopoulos of the Tampa Bay Business Journal.
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | | 
Ron DeSantis, then a candidate for governor, speaks to the College Republican students on the campus of Florida International University on Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018, in Miami, Fla. | Brynn Anderson/AP | CURRICULUM CHANGES — “Florida Republicans targeted ‘woke ideologies.’ These state university courses are on the chopping block,” by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury . “Florida’s public universities are purging the list of general education courses they will offer next year to fall in line with a state law pushed for by Gov. Ron DeSantis targeting ‘woke ideologies’ in higher education. These decisions, in many cases being driven by the university system’s Board of Governors, have the potential to affect faculty and thousands of students across the state. Hundreds of courses are slated to become electives after previously counting toward graduation requirements, which university professors and free speech advocates fear is just the first step toward those classes disappearing entirely.” REPORT DROPPED — “New DeSantis administration report alleges ‘widespread petition fraud’ in Amendment 4,” by Lawrence Mower of the Tampa Bay Times and Alexandra Glorioso of the Miami Herald . “Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration released an unprecedented report on Friday accusing the organizers behind Florida’s abortion amendment of committing ‘widespread petition fraud’ in the drive to get the initiative on the ballot next month. The unusual 348-page preliminary report from the Florida secretary of state advocates for the state Legislature to change laws to crack down on future petition drives. And it could lay the groundwork for an attempt by the administration to disqualify or invalidate the amendment, which DeSantis has vowed to defeat.” HEADING OUT — “Lawyer who threatened Florida TV stations over abortion ad leaves Health Department job,” reports the Miami Herald’s Ana Ceballos . “The top attorney for the Florida Department of Health left his post within days of sending a letter to television stations on behalf of the state agency that threatened to criminally prosecute them if they did not take down a political advertisement in support of an abortion ballot initiative. John Wilson, general counsel for the state agency since 2022, sent a letter to TV stations on Oct. 4 telling them to take down political advertisements run by a political committee that supports the ballot initiative, known as Amendment 4. The letter drew criticism from the Federal Communications Commission chairwoman, who called the letter ‘dangerous’ and a likely violation of the First Amendment. The reason for Wilson’s departure is unclear, but an automatic message from his work email says he ‘is no longer with the Department of Health.’” REJECTED — “State health agency denies license for new abortion clinic in Florida,” reports Jim Saunders of News Service of Florida . “The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration on Friday denied a license for a new Pensacola abortion clinic, rejecting a recommendation by an administrative law judge who said the application should be approved. Agency Secretary Jason Weida signed a 49-page final order that cited a ‘pattern of deficient performance’ at a now-closed Louisiana clinic with ties to the proposed Pensacola facility.” IF CANNABIS LEGALIZATION PASSES — “With Amendment 3, will Florida follow other states in 'righting wrongs' of past drug policy?” by WLRN’s Wilkine Brutus . “Florida’s state economists project legal recreational marijuana sales could generate up to $430 million a year in local and state tax revenues, if voters approve Amendment 3 on November’s ballot. That's enough money to "right past wrongs," according to some supporters of the measure, who want to see social equity programs implemented alongside the legalization of recreational cannabis for adults 21 years or older.” DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT — “Federal judge rejects request to block Florida's ‘fake meat’ ban,” by POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie . “A federal judge on Friday rejected a California company's request to block Florida's ban on lab-grown meat, which was the first in the nation. U. S. District Judge Mark Walker rejected a preliminary injunction after hearing oral arguments on Monday in Tallahassee that UPSIDE Foods had failed to demonstrate that the state ban was preempted by federal laws.”
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | TODAY — POLITICO’s Gary Fineout will moderate a debate at the Capital Tiger Bay Club between Republican state Sen. Corey Simon and Democrat Daryl Parks, who are running for District 3. NEW SENATE ADS — Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) released a new ad Monday featuring sheriffs from across Florida praising him for how he has helped their communities prepare for and recover from hurricanes. The ad is part of an ongoing $10 million statewide buy. And his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a new ad out this morning alongside the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as part of an ongoing eight-figure buy. In the ad, Mucarsel-Powell compares Scott to a “snake,” ripping his record in the private sector and on issues like abortion rights. She calls him a “slippery politician who has been ripping you off” and arguing that it’s “time for a senator with a spine.” RAZOR THIN — A new poll from Mason-Dixon for NBC6 and Telemundo 51 shows state constitutional amendments to legalize cannabis for recreational reasons and expand abortion rights both hovering around the crucial 60 percent mark needed for passage, with significant uncertainty surrounding them. A total of 58 percent of respondents to the poll said they planned to vote “yes” on the cannabis legalization referendum while 61 percent planned to vote “yes” to expand abortion rights. The poll looked at 625 registered voters from October 1 through 4, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
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Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) at the Capitol in April. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | BALANCING ACT — “‘Very much a pragmatist.’ Maria Elvira Salazar threads a needle as she seeks reelection,” by the Miami Herald’s Max Greenwood and Syra Ortiz Blanes . “The Miami congresswoman has boasted about federal funding for her district that she voted against. She has kept her distance from a fight over Florida’s six-week abortion ban and a proposed constitutional amendment that would override it. And she has elevated the issue of immigration reform and amnesty — while also defending Donald Trump as the ‘the only guy who could fix’ the country’s immigration system. As Salazar puts it, she’s doing her best to represent a wildly diverse constituency with a vast array of political interests and priorities.” BALLOT REFERENDUM FUNDRAISING — “Committee backing Amendment 4 raises $12.7M in a single week for abortion rights initiative,” reports Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics. “The political committee Floridians Protecting Freedom is beefing up its war chest with a pair of multimillion-dollar donations; however, the campaign also received $50 or less from more than 3,500 donors. That’s according to the latest campaign finance report, covering activity from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4.” — “Democrat Nate Douglas seeks to flip Central Florida state House seat, defeat Republican Susan Plasencia,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello. — “The two Florida Supreme Court justices up for a retention vote, explained,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Romy Ellenbogen.
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