Sunday, September 1, 2024

Will a hostage tragedy be a turning point?

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Sep 01, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by 

Evernorth Health Services

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

FOR YOUR THOUGHTS — “America Must Free Itself from the Tyranny of the Penny,” by NYT Mag’s Caity Weaver: “The necessity of abolishing the penny has been obvious to those in power for so long that the inability to accomplish it has transformed the coin into a symbol of deeper rot.”

The coffin of the slain hostage Almog Sarusi, who was killed in Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, is placed in a grave during his funeral at a cemetery in Ra'anana, Israel, Sunday, Sept. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

The coffin of a slain hostage who was killed in Hamas captivity is placed in a grave during his funeral at a cemetery in Ra'anana, Israel, on Sunday, Sept. 1. | AP

SIX HOSTAGES DEAD IN RAFAH — Tragic news overnight from the Middle East: The Israeli military said it recovered the bodies of six young hostages in Gaza — including 23-year-old HERSH GOLDBERG-POLIN, the California-born Israeli-American who had become one of the faces of the horror of Oct. 7 here in the U.S.

An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, Rear Admiral DANIEL HAGARI, said in a video briefing that Goldberg-Polin, ORI DANINO, 25, ALEX LOBANOV, 33, ALMOG SARUSI, 27, CARMEL GAT, 40, and EDEN YERUSHALMI, 24, were “brutally murdered” by Hamas as IDF forces neared a rescue in Rafah — close to the location where another hostage had been recovered alive days ago.

The immediate response to the tragedy has been a new surge of anger in Israel targeting PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for allegedly slow-walking a cease-fire deal that could have seen the six dead hostages and scores of others released alive. Per CNN’s Alex Stambaugh, Nectar Gan and Jeremy Diamond, some of those murdered hostages were expected to be “released during the first phase” of an eventual cease-fire agreement.

A group representing the hostage families said in a statement, per NYT: “For 11 months, the government of Israel led by Netanyahu failed to do what is expected of a government — to bring its sons and daughters home. Netanyahu: Enough of the excuses. Enough of the spin. Enough of the abandonment.”

Earlier today, protesters began gathering in Tel Aviv demanding that Netanyahu accept the cease-fire deal that’s on the table in Cairo. The leader of Israel’s main labor federation, with the backing of opposition leader YAIR LAPID, is calling for a general strike tomorrow to up the pressure on Netanyahu to make a deal, per Haaretz.

In a video statement overnight, Netanyahu was defiant: “The fact that Hamas continues to commit atrocities like the ones it committed on the seventh of October obliges us to do everything so that it cannot commit these atrocities again,” he said, adding: “Whoever murders hostages does not want a deal.”

Hamas blamed Netanyhau for the deaths — but also President JOE BIDEN. One statement reported by WaPo’s Shira Rubin, Niha Masih and Joanna Slater said “if President Biden is concerned about their lives, he must stop supporting this enemy with money and weapons and pressure the occupation to end its aggression immediately.”

The question of the moment is, will the killings prove to be a turning point in the long, frustrating efforts to secure a cease-fire?

Goldberg-Polin’s parents made an emotional plea for a cease-fire at the Democratic National Convention last month and have met with both Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS to push for a deal. In statements overnight, both leaders condemned Hamas for Goldberg-Polin’s death.

A White House official says that Biden spoke to the his parents to “offer his condolences for the death of their son at the hands of Hamas.” Another official told Playbook that many staffers met the parents at the DNC and the loss is being felt “on a personal level” at the White House today.

In statements overnight, both leaders condemned Hamas for Goldberg-Polin’s death.

Biden said he was “heartbroken” by the news: “It is as tragic as it is reprehensible. Make no mistake, Hamas leaders will pay for these crimes.” Added Harris: “Hamas’ depravity is evident and horrifying. The threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel — and American citizens in Israel — must be eliminated and Hamas cannot control Gaza.”

In our conversations this morning, Biden administration officials aren’t foreseeing a tectonic shift at the negotiation table, though they acknowledge it adds urgency to close a deal.

“It definitely increases the pressure,” one official said. “At the same time, it's still very much unclear whether or not Hamas would actually go for a deal. And so that's the other thing and also worth keeping in mind that it's. It's obviously not just up to Netanyahu and the government of Israel.”

Of note: As first reported by Axios’ Barak Ravid and confirmed by Playbook, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is set to hold a virtual meeting later today with the families of American hostages still being held by Hamas.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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The Democratic National Convention.

The Harris-Walz campaign is touting itself as the underdog in the presidential race. | David Hume Kennerly for POLITICO

WHO’S THE UNDERDOG HERE? — Traditionally, Labor Day weekend is when the long presidential campaign hits the home stretch, when most voters wind their summers and start actually tuning into politics, the old conventional wisdom goes.

Well, consider a few things — starting with the fact that early voting will begin within weeks in some states and that we’re already seen a summer of remarkable campaign tumult — so we’re not prepared to observe any of the old milestones as we ponder what’s in store for us over the next 65 days.

But for the Harris campaign, it’s a fine enough occasion for the ol’ state-of-the-race memo, which Campaign Chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON delivers this morning with 65 days left to go.

There’s two data tidbits in the doc: First, the campaign has already reserved $370 million in digital and TV ads between Labor Day and Election Day, and they are touting 312 field offices and 2,000 staff in the battleground states.

But at the same time, JOD is continuing to insist that Harris and running mate TIM WALZ are clear underdogs.”

“DONALD TRUMP has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020,” she writes, adding, “This race will remain incredibly close, and the voters who will decide this election will require an extraordinary amount of work to win over. But we have the candidate, message, and operation that brings Americans together to chart a new way forward, so we can once again defeat Donald Trump.”

The memo is the latest evidence that Harris and her brain trust are less worried about Trump than worried about complacency as the ghosts of 2016 continue to haunt Democratic politics. (One of Harris’ favorite lines in talking to aides is that they “aren’t going to lose to Trump but lose to the couch.”)

But as NYT’s Reid Epstein notes, if you read between the lines of the memo, the confidence in the Harris-Walz camp is clear.

“Politicians in both parties often claim to be in trouble to help juice their fund-raising — and to keep volunteers working hard,” he said. “Still, it is hard to believe that Ms. Harris and her top campaign officials really think they are, given the other contents of Ms. O’Malley Dillon’s memo on Sunday. The document is littered with the sort of details a confident campaign would want everyone to know about.”

The Trump campaign pushed back on some assertions made in the memo about their own ground game and infrastructure.

One official said that the “coordinated pro-Trump effort” has “hundreds of full-time staff and over 300 Trump/GOP offices operating across the battleground states in addition to nearly 2,000 paid canvassers in the field.”

Here are the other stats the campaign is touting: 

  • The official said they have “slashed the [Pennsylvania] Democrat voter registration advantage in half since 2020, nearly doubled the GOP advantage in Arizona since 2020, and cut Nevada Democrats to a narrow edge since 2020.” 
  • “The Trump Force 47 program already has over 23,000 trained Trump Force 47 Captains organizing and mobilizing targeted mid and low propensity voters across battleground states and will have 45-50,000 by two weeks out of Election Day.” 

The person added that there are “hundreds of thousands of volunteers active in programs ranging from hand-written postcard writing to phone banking, to door-knocking, to poll-watching.”

“It is no surprise that the Harris/Biden/Obama Frankenstein campaign of rivals is pushing out a new lie-riddled process memo now that the Harris Honeymoon is coming to an end, her predicted bump is fading, and all major polling models and averages are once again pointing to a Trump victory,” Trump campaign spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT told Playbook. “They are simply trying to convince donors and the media that her campaign of lies and flip-flop-flips, her disastrous CNN interview, her limited but roundly criticized policy rollouts, her radically left-wing stolen valor running mate, and the onslaught of criticism she is facing from Gold Star Families will all be ok. The fact is that Kamala’s position with voters is receding the more they get to know her — which is why her campaign won’t even let her speak for herself.”

SUNDAY BEST …

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on whether he would support Trump’s idea of mandating insurance companies to cover IVF treatment, on ABC’s “This Week”: “No, because there’s no end to that. Yeah, there’s no end to that. I think a tax credit for children makes sense. Means tested. And I think let’s look at that concept for people trying to have a child.”

— Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on whether he would support Trump’s idea of mandating insurance companies to cover IVF treatment, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It’s something I’m open to, that most Republicans would be open to. … In principle, supporting couples who are trying to use IVF or other fertility treatments I don’t think is something that’s controversial at all.”

On Trump’s visit to Arlington Cemetery: “These families — Gold Star families whose children died because of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's incompetence — invited him to the cemetery. And they asked him to take those photos.”

— Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) on whether Harris has been open to conditioning aid to Israel, on “Meet the Press”: “No. I will leave that for the vice president to articulate. But what her team has expressed openness is to a new direction.”

On whether Harris labels herself as a progressive: “I’d let her do that. But I think of her as a progressive who’s pragmatic to meet the needs.”

— COREY LEWANDOWSKI on his return to the Trump campaign, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I have the opportunity to work with SUSIE WILES and CHRIS LaCIVITA. I like to call us the three amigos. We are solely focused on one thing, which is making sure Donald Trump has the opportunity to lay out his vision for America over the next nine weeks and let the American people go to the ballot to understand what's at stake here. And so, no changes at the top. But what we have seen from Donald Trump and what I've always recommended is his ability to get in front of the American people.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden and Harris have nothing on their public schedules.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

Misty Fuoco, left, sister of Nicole Gee, and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump place their hands over their heart after placing a wreath in honor of Sgt. Nicole Gee, at the Tomb of the Unknown Solider at Arlington National Cemetery, Monday, Aug. 26, 2024, in Arlington, Va.

The drama around Donald Trump's visit to Arlington Cemetery is still unfolding. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

1. ARLINGTON FALLOUT: The controversy over Trump’s appearance at Arlington National Cemetery is still unfolding as both campaigns traded public swipes yesterday, with Harris jumping into the fray for the first time.

In a lengthy post on X, Harris said Trump’s visit that resulted in a confrontation between a campaign staffer and an Arlington official “disrespected sacred ground, all for the sake of a political stunt.” She went on to critique Trump’s past comments disparaging veterans and fallen service members, adding: “This is a man who is unable to comprehend anything other than service to himself.” Trump responded to Harris’ broadside by pushing out videos through his social media from family members of service members killed in the Abbey Gate attack, CNN’s Samantha Waldenberg and Shania Shelton write.

In the videos, the family members, who were in attendance for Trump’s cemetery visit earlier this week, underlined their support for the former president. JACLYN SCHMITZ in her video called Harris’ statement “political spin,” adding: “You have never walked a single day in our shoes. Our kids were murdered because of your administration, and you are partly to blame.” Asked by Playbook about the videos addressed to Harris, a campaign spokesperson pointed to Harris’ statement on the anniversary of the Abbey Gate attack and to her post on X.

Related reads: “Others Have Politicized Arlington, but Trump’s Approach Has No Precedent,” by NYT’s Chris Cameron … “Jamie Raskin Requests Army Records Of Cemetery Incident,” by HuffPost’s Arthur Delaney

2. DESPOT DISPATCH: Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBAN has mounted a serious effort to expand his influence around the world, including through repeated overtures to Trump and tapping into the policy nerve centers hoping to steer a second Trump administration. But Republican foreign-policy officials, past and present, see the play by Hungary as a dangerous road, Heidi Przybyla and Nicholas Vinocur report.

How Orban sees it: “Orban told U.S. activists two years ago that he had ‘perfected the recipe’ for an ‘illiberal state’ which he wanted to share with other governments. Last month, Orban publicly claimed to be helping the Trump campaign to draft policy.” How Trump sees it: Trump has cozied up to Orban, meeting with him in Florida twice and publicly praising the leader on stage in July at the Republican National Convention.

3. STRAIGHT TO THE SOURCE: Family members of GEORGE GLEZMANN, a Delta Air Lines mechanic who was taken by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2022, have “informed the White House it would negotiate directly with the Taliban to try to secure the American hostage’s release from Afghanistan” as they feel their options for freeing Glezmann run short, WSJ’s Alexander Ward reports.

“‘We are in the process of finalizing a meeting in Doha with the [Taliban] to try to recover George,’ wrote GEORGE TAYLOR, a Glezmann family representative, in an email last week to senior U.S. officials including national security adviser Jake Sullivan and top hostage negotiator ROGER CARSTENS. Taylor accused the administration of putting little emphasis on Glezmann’s case, leaving him to languish in a cell as his health deteriorates. He implored the government ‘to exhibit the necessary courage and leadership that it takes to facilitate the release of George.’”

4. HACK JOB: “Hacking blind spot: States struggle to vet coders of election software,” by John Sakellariadis: “The technology vendors who build software used on Election Day face razor-thin profit margins in a market that is unforgiving commercially and toxic politically. That provides little room for needed investments in security, POLITICO found. It also leaves states with minimal leverage over underperforming vendors, who provide them with everything from software to check in Americans at their polling stations to voting machines and election night reporting systems. Many states lack a uniform or rigorous system to verify what goes into software used on Election Day and whether it is secure.”

 

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5. VISUAL EXPLAINER: “Where Taxes Would Rise the Most if Trump’s Tax Cuts Expire,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin, Max Rust and Anthony DeBarros: “If Congress doesn’t act by the end of 2025, income taxes will go up for most households. An analysis by the Tax Foundation shows that, on average, taxes would rise in every single county in the country — urban or rural, wealthy or poor — but the amounts vary, as you will [in the charts]. The analysis doesn’t speak to the median household’s tax bill, but it shows how much more people in each area would be paying.”

6. VALLEY TALK: “Clash of the Tech Titans: Silicon Valley Fractures Over Harris vs. Trump,” by WSJ’s Preetika Rana: “An extraordinary public war of words is brewing in Silicon Valley as some of the biggest names in technology take shots at former friends and colleagues in the run-up to the presidential election. This kind of infighting has been rare in previous presidential elections as the tech industry has historically leaned left. During this election, a small and influential group of leaders — including [ELON] MUSK — have opened their wallets to support Trump and have become increasingly vocal about switching party lines, triggering backlash from others who have historically kept quiet about their politics. The political divide is souring business relationships and testing old friendships.”

Related read: “How Elon Musk’s endorsement of Trump may have backfired,” by NBC’s David Ingram

7. THESE WALZ TALK: “Gwen Walz Finds Her ‘Teacher Voice’ on the Campaign Trail,” by WSJ’s Katy Stech Ferek: “Family friends say [GWEN] WALZ is comfortable with public life and her political duties, whether addressing donors at smaller fundraisers or large crowds at rallies as Minnesota’s first lady. They say she has been a stabilizing force and trusted adviser for her husband on policy issues for years, sometimes stepping into the fray herself. That role will now be tested under the bright spotlight of the presidential race and the close scrutiny that comes with it.”

8. TRUMP 2.0: “One law could make Trump’s tariff threat a reality,” by Doug Palmer: “If elected to a second term, trade experts and former officials say he could easily use another obscure but long-standing statute to enact his latest trade proposal: slapping a universal tariff of 10 or 20 percent on all goods imported into the U.S., which currently total more than $3 trillion annually. … The International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives the president sweeping authority to control economic transactions after declaring an emergency. Some trade experts believe it is supple enough to also implement Trump’s pledge to phase out imports of essential goods from China over a period of four years.”

9. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: “Crypto is the new Trump family business. Ethics watchdogs have concerns,” by Jasper Goodman: “Trump’s eldest sons are gearing up to launch a new cryptocurrency venture called World Liberty Financial, which is already receiving a big social media boost from their father. Government ethics watchdogs say the project could create a conflict of interest if Trump returns to the White House next year. Trump has vowed to enact an array of pro-crypto policies in a bid to win votes — and campaign cash — from digital asset enthusiasts in recent months. Now, he’s weaving the overtures into his pitch for his sons’ forthcoming startup.”

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Anuel AA’s endorsement of Trump is the latest effort by the campaign to reach Latinos.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is suing North Carolina to get off the ballot. He’s also planning to remove himself from the Virginia ballot.

JD Vance’s neighbors are getting their park back (sometimes).

Chuck Grassley got a good corn crop this year.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jasmin Chavez Cruz is now an associate director in the Office of Management and Administration at the White House. She most recently was a special assistant at the Department of Education.

TRANSITIONS — Marc Chaaban is now deputy comms director for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s Florida Senate campaign. He most recently was minority press secretary for the House Budget Committee. … Edward O’Callaghan is now a partner at Cahill Gordon & Reindel LLP where he plans to continue his white collar defense and congressional investigations practice and build out a multi-practice D.C. office for the firm. He most recently was a partner at WilmerHale and was a top DOJ official in the Trump administration.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) … Xochitl Hinojosa Yolanda CarawaySue Hensley of the National Restaurant Association … Commerce’s Susie Feliz Tim Truman … C-SPAN’s Craig CaplanChris Fleming of Red Horse Strategies … John Jones … CNN’s Jessica Estepa … NBC’s Janelle Rodriguez and Priscilla Thompson … POLITICO’s Tess Holcom … Bloomberg’s Kate DavidsonLibby Liu … BGR’s Jonathan MantzWayne CrewsAnjan MukherjeeLauren Blair Bianchi of JPMorgan Chase … former Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R-Fla.) … Puck’s’ Tara Palmeri David Natonski Courtney DorningDee Dee Myers … Rokk Solutions’ Erickson Foster

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