Wednesday, September 18, 2024

U.S. struggles to dislodge stuck Israel-Hamas talks

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THE CATCH-UP

BEST NEWS OF THE DAY — Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. fell 10.6 percent, a major and surprising turnaround in an opioid epidemic that has devastated communities across the country for years, according to new CDC data scooped by NPR’s Brian Mann. The decline could be even sharper once the full numbers are in. The level of fatal overdoses is still high overall, of course, but many public health experts told NPR that “a widespread, meaningful shift appears underway.” Why remains something of a mystery.

SURVEY SAYS — DONALD TRUMP leads VP KAMALA HARRIS by 3 points in the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of Georgia, Greg Bluestein reports. But Harris got one of her best recent results from Quinnipiac, which finds her up by 6 in Pennsylvania and 5 in Michigan. Both Quinnipiac and the latest AARP survey show a tighter race in Wisconsin, with Harris leading by just 1 point. Democrats lead in all those states’ Senate races.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a joint press conference with Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in Tahrir Palace in Cairo, Egypt Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo via AP)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said unexpected violence keeps hamstringing progress toward a cease-fire deal in the Israel-Hamas war. | Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo via AP Photo

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The U.S. is struggling to put a lid on a region that keeps boiling over.

In Egypt today, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned that flare-ups of unexpected violence keep hamstringing negotiators’ progress toward finding a cease-fire deal in the Israel-Hamas war, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer reports from Cairo. “Time and again … we’ve seen an event that makes the process more difficult, might derail it,” he said in response to a question about yesterday’s wave of deadly pager explosions in Lebanon. Blinken also cited Hamas’ killing of several hostages earlier this month.

But Lebanon was hit again by a new wave of electronics attacks today: Walkie-talkies and other devices exploded across the country, killing at least nine people and injuring more than 300, Lebanese officials said. Per the AP, some home solar energy systems exploded. NYT’s Euan Ward and Aaron Boxerman report that Hezbollah’s walkie-talkies were targeted. As hospitals get overrun, officials have said yesterday’s attack likely came from Israel. “We are opening a new phase in the war,” Israeli defense minister YOAV GALLANT said, per Axios’ Barak Ravid.

Even as fears rise of an Israel-Hezbollah war escalating further, the U.S. is working with Egypt and Qatar to try to come up with new options that might help dislodge the stuck Israel-Hamas negotiations, Erin Banco reports. “Ideas have ranged from allowing Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR safe passage out of Gaza, to giving human rights organizations access to Israel’s prisoners to reducing the number of Israeli troops along the Egyptian border,” several officials tell her.

The Biden administration is hoping some of these ideas could help make progress in the coming days, but officials are far from certain that anything can work right now. They’re especially irritated with Hamas’ intransigence in negotiations, Erin reports. And Blinken said today that negotiators need “to see a demonstration of political will” from both sides.

Pressure from the American left could soon bubble up on the Hill. Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) sent a letter today saying he’ll introduce long-shot resolutions to prevent $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel, per AP’s Lisa Mascaro. That could force members of Congress to go on the record with a vote as early as next week, though there’s little chance they’d pass. And Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) called for the State Department to answer whether the U.S. had helped develop the tech for the Lebanon attacks.

Just posted: “Biden’s arms transfers to Israel under internal investigation,” by WaPo’s John Hudson: “Government watchdogs with jurisdiction over the State Department and Pentagon are preparing to publish the results of multiple investigations scrutinizing the Biden administration’s provision of U.S. weapons to Israel for its military campaign in Gaza, and ‘several’ related inquiries are either underway or planned.”

Meanwhile, Nahal Toosi scoops the latest turn of the screw in the ROB MALLEY mystery: A new inspector general report says the State Department erred in some of its procedures around suspending his security clearance. Those mistakes may have led Malley to participate in some activities before he was aware he no longer had the clearance to do so.

Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance looks on during the second night of the Republican National Convention.

New reporting shows that Springfield officials told Sen. JD Vance's (R-Ohio) staff there was no evidence of Haitians eating pets. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. ANATOMY OF A LIE: A remarkable new WSJ story from Kris Maher, Valerie Bauerlein and Tawnell Hobbs dives into how the Trump campaign tried retroactively — and unsuccessfully — to justify the baseless conspiracy theories they spread about Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio. After Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) amplified the misinformation on X, his staff reportedly called Springfield city hall to ask if it was true — and didn’t change course even after being told no. Even this week, Vance’s staff tried to provide the Journal with an example of a woman with a missing cat, but the reporters went to talk to her and found that the cat has returned. (She apologized.) The data also show that Vance’s claim of rising infectious diseases isn’t true.

Vance continues to insist that the broader focus should be on the many actual ways that the influx of Haitian migrants is straining the resources of Springfield. But the effects of his rhetoric have also rippled out beyond the city, as Haitian Americans nationwide express outrage and fear for their safety, NYT’s Miriam Jordan reports.

2. KNOWING JOHN THUNE: “John Thune is striving to be the next Republican Senate leader, but can he rise in Trump’s GOP?” by AP’s Stephen Groves in Mitchell, South Dakota: “Throughout his political career, the South Dakota Republican has shown an athlete’s grit and sense for being in the right place at the right time. … This year, Thune — much like he ran the 800-meter race in high school — has jumped out to a pace meant to exhaust his rivals. … But the drive to become leader has forced Thune into a delicate pose: contrasting Trump’s style of politics, but stopping short of the direct confrontations that have ended the careers of other Republicans.”

3. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: The Trump campaign has grown increasingly grim and nervous as threats to his life have increased — and added security has hemmed him in more, WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer report. This summer, Trump was an hour late in appearing at a Nashville event because he had to wait while a potential security threat was evaluated. His campaign has even been warned “about the possibility of poisoning threats.” The growing security apparatus around Trump is forcing his campaign to adapt how they plan events.

As more details emerge about RYAN ROUTH, the man arrested in this weekend’s incident, WSJ’s Chun Han Wong reports that he once fantasized about a plan for a “foreign legion” to protect Taiwan from China.

 

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4. BRIAN BALLARD’S INFLUENCE: “Why Big Tobacco is betting on Trump,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker, Dan Diamond and Josh Dawsey: “[T]he tobacco industry is banking on Trump’s chaotic approach to public health — and pliable views on policy — as it confronts a new challenge to its bottom line: efforts by regulators in the Biden administration to ban menthol cigarettes … The top corporate donor to the main pro-Trump super PAC is a subsidiary of Reynolds American … Big Tobacco’s bet on Trump shows how corporate interests believe the former president can be swayed by campaign donations — and brought into line even on issues where he has shown some independence from GOP orthodoxy.”

5. SPEAKER NOW: The discontent in the House GOP over Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s handling of government funding could jeopardize his ability to hang onto the speakership next Congress, NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson, Ben Mause and Reese Gorman report. Opinions vary in the conference, and some members blame the far-right rebels. But others are angry at Johnson’s approach, and his repeated reliance on Democratic votes to get major votes across the finish line. “I think he’s cooked,” one member of Congress told NOTUS last night.

6. SHERROD BROWN’S CHALLENGE: “A Populist Democrat Fights to Survive the Trump-Fueled Populist Wave,” by WSJ’s Molly Ball in Weirton, West Virginia: “That tension has made this crucial Senate race a referendum on different flavors of populism in a political era that has put the concept front and center. It is a case study in the way globalization and its discontents — the accelerating movement of goods and people across national borders, and the resulting backlash — have changed the American landscape and reshaped both political parties.”

7. THE NEW ABORTION REALITY: The first installment of ProPublica’s deep dive into Georgia women who died in the wake of an abortion ban has already made it to the forefront of the presidential campaign. Now Kavitha Surana is out with the second story, about 41-year-old CANDI MILLER, whose health was imperiled by her unexpected pregnancy. She tried using abortion pills, but died when complications arose and she couldn’t seek treatment to help. A state expert committee deemed her death preventable and caused by the ban.

Abortion is also front and center in a new Harris ad that spotlights HADLEY DUVALL, the Kentucky young woman who was impregnated by her stepfather when she was 12, per AP’s Colleen Long. Another new Harris ad pitches Asian American voters by focusing on Harris’ mom, Axios’ Shawna Chen reports.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kamala Harris was backed by 111 GOP former national security officials and lawmakers.

Derek Tran’s history as a lawyer could make him politically vulnerable.

OUT AND ABOUT — Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins hosted a reception yesterday evening for Cisco’s new D.C. office on Maine Avenue SW. SPOTTED: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Reps. David Joyce (R-Ohio), Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) and Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Drew Brandewie, Darin Thacker, David Montes, Andrew DeLuca, Deena Shetler, Nick Hawatmeh, Ashley Gutwein, Dante Cutrona, Austin Higginbotham, Jeff Campbell, Waldo McMillan and Nicole Isaac.

Spero Studio coordinated a dinner with the Congressional Black Caucus Institute, bringing together community leaders and Amgen health equity experts to mark September as National Cholesterol Education Month. SPOTTED: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Troy Carter (D-La.), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) and Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.), Jenelle Coy, Keenan Austin Reed, Winta Menghis, Vince Evans and Tammy Boyd.

Rwandan Ambassador Mathilde Mukantabana hosted a reception in honor of the House Chiefs of Staff Association yesterday evening in Dupont Circle. SPOTTED: Mitchell Rivard, Yannick Tona, Kate Bonner, Andrew Christianson, Tim McNulty, Michelle Dorothy, Gregory Smith, Hope Goins, Rachel Harris, Bronwyn Lance, Yardena Wolf, Shana Teehan, Vivian Moeglein and Hannah Spengler.

Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) were honored at last night’s Bazelon Center for Mental Health Law Annual Awards with a Congressional Champion Award. Amna Nawaz emceed. SPOTTED: Holly O’Donnell, Ken Feinberg, Jill Bazelon, Aaron Panner, Joyce Bender, Brendan O’Donnell, Harvey Rosenthal, Eileen Bazelon, Eve Hill, Luke Sikinyi, Lily Colby and Zack Dugue.

— SPOTTED at the NOTUS newsroom in Georgetown yesterday for a politics conversation featuring Jasmine Wright and Tim Alberta: Robert Allbritton, Josh Dawsey, Molly Ball, Wes Lowery, Geoff Morrell, Francesca Craig, Nia-Malika Henderson, Melissa Moss, Shaila Manyam, Puru Trivedi, Courtney Flantzer, DJ Judd, Bryan DeAngelis and Catherine Valentine.

TRANSITION — Emily Lenzner will be a senior adviser at Trident DMG, working on special projects. She most recently was EVP for global comms and public affairs at the Motion Picture Association.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Tanner Spencer, district director for Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), and KJ Sanger, senior analyst at Great Lakes Capital, got married in Fremont, Indiana. David Keller, chief of staff to Banks, officiated. The couple met on a Thursday night at Whitlow’s in 2017. PicAnother picSPOTTED: Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Amanda Banks, Indiana state Sen. Justin Busch, Corinne Day, Walter Smoloski, Marjorie Daily, Zach Price, Gabriella Bucci, Mark Rusthoven, Matt and Lauren Sommer, Derek and Carley Fisher, Stephen Simonetti and Landon Porter.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Ryan McCormack, chief of staff to Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.), and Anna McCormack, chief of staff to Rep. David Rouzer (R-N.C.), welcomed their second daughter, Nora McCormack, on Sept. 4. PicAnother pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Wasi Mohamed of Rep. Summer Lee’s (D-Pa.) office

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