Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Is This Stock's 10% Yield "Rock-Solid"?

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Blackstone Secured Lending Fund: A "Rock-Solid" 10% Yielder?

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

The Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (NYSE: BXSL) is a business development company, or BDC, that lends money to private firms. It is a subsidiary of the trillion-dollar asset manager Blackstone.

The company has $11.3 billion in assets, 99% of which are first lien senior secured debt. That means these loans are first in line to be paid back and they're backed by collateral. As a lender, that's the best position to be in.

The top three sectors in the Blackstone Secured Lending Fund's portfolio are software (18%), healthcare providers and services (10%), and professional services (9%), so its investments are well diversified.

The stock pays a fat 10% yield. But does the "Blackstone" name mean the dividend is solid as a rock?

Let's dig into the numbers to find out.

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Since the company is a BDC, we'll look at net investment income, or NII, as our measure of cash flow. NII is the amount of income a company generates from its investments after expenses are subtracted.

The Blackstone Secured Lending Fund has been growing its NII by double digits for several years in a row and has more than tripled its NII since 2020.

Chart: Blackstone's Consistent NII Growth
View larger image
 

Last year, the company paid shareholders $438 million in dividends while generating $654 million in NII for a payout ratio of 67%. This year, it is expected to pay nearly $100 million more in dividends, but its NII is forecast to grow by $130 million, which would inch the payout ratio up to 68%.

Both payout ratio numbers are well within my comfort zone.

For most companies, I want to see payout ratios of 75% or lower. However, BDCs are required to pay out 90% or more of their profits in dividends, so I raised my payout ratio threshold for BDCs to 100% to give them a little more leeway. (Remember, profits - also known as net income - is not the same as net investment income. The BDC is not required to pay out 90% of its NII.)

Blackstone's 67% and 68% payout ratios are fairly low relative to my 100% limit, which gives me plenty of reassurance about the company's ability to pay the dividend.

That being said, there's one specific aspect of the fund's dividend history that may concern some of you...

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