| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Medics collect blood donations in Beirut's southern suburb on September 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Daniella Cheslow, Joe Gould, and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Electronics are exploding across Lebanon — and that doesn’t bode well for either peace talks on Gaza or the high-stakes showdown between Israel and Hezbollah. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, visiting Cairo today, was asked about the wave of consecutive communication devices simultaneously exploding across Lebanon that appears to be the result of an audacious Israeli intelligence operation. (All those pagers and walkie-talkies that blew up are used by the Hezbollah militant group, which is trading fire with Israeli forces across Lebanon’s southern border with Israel.) It’s clear Blinken wasn’t pleased. “Time and again” when the U.S. and others working on a Gaza cease-fire plan think they are moving forward, “we’ve seen an event that … threatens to slow it, stop it, derail it,” he said. Israel hasn’t claimed credit for the attacks, but Hezbollah was quick to blame it and vowed to retaliate. This wave of explosions adds yet another hurdle to the already massive list of hurdles the Biden administration is trying to jump to restart cease-fire talks on Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Negotiators are casting around ideas to restart any semblance of momentum in the talks, including allowing Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR safe passage out of Gaza and giving human rights organizations access to Israel’s prisoners, as our own ERIN BANCO reports today. Beyond the borders of Gaza, however, the explosive attacks could heighten the risk of an Israel-Hezbollah war even before the Israel-Hamas war ends. Experts and officials who spoke to NatSec Daily are torn on this; some say the attacks will increase the likelihood of a wider war, while others believe it could convince Hezbollah to back down. A full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is “not inevitable because they both still fear war, but with every hit, especially one this significant, it is only logical to assume that war is near,” said BILAL SAAB, a former Pentagon official and expert on Middle East security issues with the TRENDS Research and Advisory consulting firm. On the other side of this debate are some of Israel’s biggest supporters on Capitol Hill. "If Hezbollah was going to accelerate things, they'd have done so by now," Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told NatSec Daily. "You know, the last time they went at it with Israel, they got a black eye really badly and beat up pretty badly." An Israel-Hezbollah war, officials and experts widely agree, could be much costlier and deadlier than the war with Hamas. Hezbollah outclasses Hamas in both its size and military strength: It reportedly has tens of thousands of active personnel and an arsenal of as many as 100,000 rockets according to public estimates (precise figures are hard to come by.) The Biden administration dispatched a senior diplomat, AMOS HOCHSTEIN to Israel on Monday to warn Israel over expanding its military action against Hezbollah and the effect it could have on regional stability. Top Israeli officials said that ramping up attacks on Hezbollah would be the only way to re-establish security in Northern Israel to let residents there return safely to their homes. Retired Brigadier General AMIR AVIVI, the president and founder of the hawkish Israel Defense and Security Forum, told our own DANIELLA CHESLOW that Israeli leadership had shifted in recent weeks from a defensive position to a more offensive stance along its northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah has amassed its forces. (He spoke based on the widely held assumption that Israel was behind the device attacks.) "All the rabbits we have been preparing for the last 20 years, we are now pulling out of the hat," he said. Avivi said the strategic benefit of the operation of detonating these communications devices was hitting "all the chain of command of Hezbollah. "It really took out of function — I'm not sure killed — but took out of function thousands of commanders on different levels," he said.
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We’re transforming the way the U.S. Navy deploys combat system capability to defend against sophisticated threats. Learn more. | | | | | BEIJING EYES U.S. WEAPONS SALES: The Chinese government isn’t thrilled about reports that the U.S. might send medium and short-range missiles to Japan and offer a major new military sale to Taiwan. At a press conference in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN called on Washington to “give up its deployment plan” when asked about the deployment in Japan. Lin added that such moves would “heighten arms race, exacerbate regional tensions, threaten peace and security in this region, and disrupt global strategic balance and stability.” Lin also said that China will sanction nine U.S. military companies as a result of the sale of weapons to Taiwan, arguing it violates the one-China principle. Lin’s comments, and the U.S. actions, follow national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN’s visit to Beijing last month and come just days before Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA and Biden will gather with the other Quad leaders in Wilmington, Del. for a summit. THE STRUGGLES OF AFGHAN ALLIES: Dozens of Afghan refugees and their families living in the Washington, D.C. suburbs may face evictions after charity groups placed them in apartments that have become too expensive for them, WUSA9’s LIONEL DONOVAN reports. Local community groups told the CBS affiliate that rent assistance for Afghan allies has run dry and complexes are raising the rents to levels they cannot afford to pay out of their own pockets. MISHANDLING MALLEY’S CLEARANCE: An internal watchdog determined that State Department officials failed to follow standard procedures when handling the security clearance suspension of Iran special envoy ROB MALLEY, according to a copy of the report obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI. The inspector-general review did not address the circumstances behind why Malley’s clearance was suspended over a year ago, after the FBI announced it was opening an investigation into Malley’s handling of classified documents. But it found that State did not notify Malley that his clearance had been suspended until a day after it happened and that colleagues that regularly work with Malley were also not immediately apprised, raising questions about whether this may have led to the mishandling of classified information. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP CIRCLES UNGA IN NEW YORK: Former President DONALD TRUMP plans to be in New York City next week at the same time as the United Nations General Assembly’s annual meeting of world leaders, a person familiar with his plans told our own MERIDITH McGRAW. It was not clear whether Trump, while in New York, would meet with any of the world leaders in town for the U.N. gathering. But he has done so before — in 2016 when he was the Republican nominee. Trump recently said that he will see Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI in the coming days, but the exact time and date are not yet known. DOPPELGANGER’S LATEST ANTICS: The Atlantic Council is out with a new report highlighting how Russian hacker group “Doppelganger” is targeting specific communities in order to chip away at U.S. support for Ukraine. According to the think tank’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, the aim was to convince specific communities that U.S. support to Ukraine is not in the country’s interests. The report adds to earlier news that “Doppelganger” is working to spread misinformation and disinformation ahead of the U.S. election in November and an indictment of Russian broadcaster RT for spreading propaganda via U.S. influencers. The latest report also finds that in addition to creating lookalike versions of prominent news outlets to spread anti-Ukraine and anti-Biden messaging, Doppelganger targeted specific groups, including the LGBTQ+ community, Jewish Americans and farmers, by creating fake news sites tailored to them and pushing similar content.
| | | CQ’S CR WOES: House Republicans’ stopgap spending bill is expected to fall short of the needed votes to advance to the Senate. But that’s not the only headache for Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. As our friends at Morning Defense reported this morning (for Pros!), Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN publicly came out in opposition to a six-month spending deal that would tide government spending over until after the election. In a Sept. 13 letter to House Armed Services Committee Chair Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), Brown wrote that a litany of military programs "will feel the brunt of the lost time and lost buying power" of a lengthy continuing spending resolution. The impact, he added, will be felt in nuclear modernization, pay and benefits, shipbuilding, munitions production and other key initiatives. The double whammy complicates Johnson’s path towards a spending deal, as he faces pressure from Republicans and former President Trump to include a voting provision that Democrats are roundly opposing and complaints from defense hawks that another continuing resolution could stymie U.S. defense efforts around the world.
| | | LAWMAKERS PUSH KEEP TO DIPLOMATS’ PAY: A leading Democratic and Republican senator are calling on their leadership to fix a procedural oversight that would lead to steep cuts to U.S. diplomats’ paychecks, according to a copy of a letter obtained by NatSec Daily. Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) wrote a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL urging them to reauthorize “overseas comparability pay” for U.S. diplomats posted abroad in any funding agreement that lawmakers work to pass before the end of the fiscal year. This letter marks the clearest sign yet that there is a bipartisan push to fix the problem roiling the U.S. diplomatic corps.
| | CHINA WEEK BEEF CONTINUES: Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee are still grousing about Republicans’ China Week legislative juggernaut last week. At a hearing of the foreign relations panel about competition in the Indo-Pacific, the committee’s top Democrat, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), warned that proposed GOP cuts to the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development would allow “China to outbid” the United States around the world. In a tweet accompanying a video clip of Meeks’ comments, committee Democrats wrote that “House R’s cuts to @StateDept and @USAID make last week’s ‘China Week’ pure lip service.” The account added that “you can’t win a great power competition on a middle power budget. If we’re serious about competing with China, we must fund diplomacy and development, not undermine them.” The comments underscore the animus between both parties on Capitol Hill, even as Democrats and Republicans both affirm the need for a robust policy to counter rising Chinese influence around the world.
| | — REGEV ORTAL will be the next director of government relations at Israel Policy Forum. Before joining IPF, Ortal was a lobbyist for J Street. She is a Staff Sergeant in the Israel Defense Forces reserves and has served in the International Cooperation Unit, where she liaised between the IDF and UN Peacekeeping forces in Syria and Lebanon.
| | — MATTHEW KAMINSKI, POLITICO: Does America want Ukraine to defeat Russia? It doesn’t look that way. — NATALIYA VASILYEVA, New Lines Magazine: Released from prison, a Russian anti-war artist is still working to free herself — McCain Institute: Defending democracy in the digital age
| | — Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Cyberspace Solarium Commission, 8:30 a.m.: America’s cyber resiliency in 2024: A conversation with CSC 2.0 Co-Chair Sen. ANGUS KING — Hudson Institute, 8:45 a.m.: A discussion on the report of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 9:15 a.m.: How the CCP uses the law to silence critics and enforce its rule — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What's happening in North Korea? — House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Israel and the Middle East at a crossroads: How Tehran's terror campaign threatens the U.S. and our allies — House Homeland Security Border Security and Enforcement Subcommittee and Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Beyond the border: Terrorism and homeland security consequences of illegal immigration — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Money is policy, part II: Analyzing select State Department grant awards — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee, 1 p.m.: Oversight of extremism policies in the army — Brookings Institution, 3 p.m.: Great power competition and overseas bases — Israeli American Council, 5:30 p.m.: Ninth annual national summit Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is upset about our arms sales to Greg. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we will continue to defend no matter the cost.
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