| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Sudan rarely makes top headlines, but the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe overshadows both Ukraine and the Middle East. | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — The Biden administration is launching a new effort to revive deadlocked peace talks on Sudan at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in an effort to tackle a conflict that spiraled into a geopolitical proxy war and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is expected to host a high-level meeting with foreign ministers and other top officials from African nations and the Gulf States in New York on Sept. 25, according to three officials familiar with the matter. The meeting is aimed at breathing new life into international efforts to broker a peace deal between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and a rival militia force known as the Rapid Support Forces that has torn apart the East African country. But if there are no breakthroughs at UNGA, the meeting could only serve to highlight the international community’s paralysis and inability to stop a catastrophic war. Sudan rarely makes top headlines, but the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe overshadows both Ukraine and the Middle East, with some 25 million people facing acute hunger and widespread reports of the country’s warring factions committing war crimes and atrocities against civilians. Biden’s envoy to the United Nations, LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, is also expected to help lead another event at UNGA focused on boosting resources to tackle the humanitarian crisis, these officials said. “Hopefully we can not only highlight what is happening in Sudan but also find a way of moving closer to getting to peace,” Thomas-Greenfield said in a press briefing on Tuesday. (She didn’t elaborate on specifics of the UNGA Sudan programs.) Thomas-Greenfield has taken a leading role in the Biden administration’s response to the war in Sudan. Even aside from the dire humanitarian situation, the conflict could have widespread geopolitical fallout; it has become a hotbed of competition among foreign powers. Russia and Iran are pushing for setting up naval bases along Sudan’s 500-mile coastline on the Red Sea, a strategic chokepoint for global maritime trade, in exchange for supporting the SAF. Russia is playing both sides, reportedly also arming the RSF through its Wagner mercenary group. Egypt is arming the SAF, while the UAE is widely believed to be supplying arms and drones to the RSF as it carries out atrocities including ethnic cleansing and mass rape. (The UAE denies these charges.) Other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as Turkey, are also vying for influence and sway over the direction of the conflict. Amid this web of foreign competition, U.S. officials who spoke to NatSec Daily conceded that prospects for a peace deal seem distant. (These officials were granted permission to speak on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.) The U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, TOM PERRIELLO, worked to arrange peace talks in Switzerland last month but only the RSF sent a delegation; the SAF skipped the meeting despite international pressure to attend. That meeting did yield one tangible result, however: An agreement to open new aid routes into the country to provide sorely-needed relief for Sudan’s embattled civilian population. Experts said Sudan’s fate ultimately rests with international efforts to clinch a peace deal. “The country itself, home to 45 million people, is disintegrating in front of our eyes,” said NICOLE WIDDERSHEIM of Human Rights Watch. “It is well past time for the U.N. Security Council and all U.N. members to act to protect civilians in Sudan.”
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — EUROPEANS’ WRITING CAMPAIGN: European lawmakers are pushing President JOE BIDEN and other U.S. allies to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of donated weapons against targets in Russian territory. In a letter to Biden and shared first with NatSec Daily, European parliamentarians, including former Lithuanian Prime Minister ANDRIUS KUBILIUS, called on Biden to lift restrictions on U.S.-provided weapons as a show of alignment with European partners. “As leaders of Europe, we cannot stand by while this war rages on, with innocent lives lost daily,” they wrote. “Time and again, we have seen that only firm and decisive action can push back Russian forces and bring this conflict closer to an end. In moments of crisis, the United States has always stood with Europe, and we ask for that same solidarity now.” The letter comes as Ukraine eagerly awaits a long-sought lift on some restrictions following a meeting between Biden and U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER last week. McMASTER’S WARNINGS? Former Trump national security adviser H.R. McMASTER is claiming that he tried to warn the Biden administration against going forward with a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. In an appearance on the “In the Room with PETER BERGEN” podcast, McMaster said that he wrote to Biden in 2021, warning that Afghanistan would collapse if the U.S. withdrew suddenly and did not take necessary steps to avoid a crisis. “I wrote a letter to President Biden earlier in 2021, and I made the argument that ... if you don't do these six things, that it’s going to be an utter disaster in Afghanistan. There'll be a complete collapse, humanitarian catastrophe. We won't be able to get people out — everything that happened," he told Bergen. McMaster’s comments come as Republicans have sought to make the troubled 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan a vulnerability for Vice President KAMALA HARRIS and seek to paint the Biden administration as incapable of projecting strength. A National Security Council spokesperson told NatSec Daily that “ending our longest war was the right thing to do and our nation is stronger today as a result.” The National Security Council also noted that the U.S. evacuated over 120,000 people from Afghanistan in the wake of the fall of Kabul and that former Joint Chiefs Chair MARK MILLEY and others have said that no one could have assessed that the Afghan government would collapse so quickly at the time. ON THE LOGS: Blinken spoke to Venezuelan opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO and presidential candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ URRUTIA today, the State Department announced. In a statement, State said Blinken “assured them the United States would continue to champion a return to democratic freedoms in Venezuela, strive to ensure the will of Venezuelan voters is respected, and hold Nicolás Maduro and his representatives accountable for their actions.” MOSCOW’S NUCLEAR NAGS: The head of Russia’s main testing site for nuclear weapons warned that his site is ready to resume nuclear detonations whenever the Kremlin issues the order, per Reuters’ ANDREW OSBORN. The stark comments come as Russia has stepped up its nuclear saber-rattling amid Western debates over restrictions on Ukraine’s use of donated weapons. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | RUDD’S AUKUS ZEN: Australia’s top diplomat in Washington says he’s not concerned about the future of the AUKUS alliance if DONALD TRUMP returns to the White House in 2025. Speaking at the Stimson Center, former Australian Prime Minister KEVIN RUDD, who now serves as Canberra’s ambassador to the United States, said that the legislation authorizing deepening submarine technology collaboration between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States enjoys wide bipartisan support in Congress. Trump, he added, hasn’t expressed specific reservations over the agreement and whether its terms are a “bad deal” for the United States. “My understanding is Republicans see this as a good deal, a great deal, and so therefore I challenge the premise as to whether we therefore are likely to anticipate any particular reservation about what's been agreed to on a bipartisan basis under the AUKUS legislation,” he said. Rudd is the latest official downplaying speculation that a Trump presidency might undermine the marquee framework to sell submarines to Washington’s key allies in the Indo-Pacific, as Trump has called for a military buildup and an expansion of the U.S. submarine fleet. In August, House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) maintained during a visit to Australia that Trump would stick with the agreement, arguing its focus on countering China will appeal to hawks in the former president’s orbit.
| | HEZBOLLAH’S EXPLODING PAGERS: Add “Hezbollah pager explosions kill several people in Lebanon” to the list of headlines we didn’t expect in 2024. As Reuters’ LAILA BASSAM reports, hundreds of pagers used by members of the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah exploded in Lebanon today. Eight people were killed and thousands have been injured, per Lebanese officials. Beirut is blaming Israel for the incident, which they described as an “Israeli aggression.” It is unclear how the barrage of blasts occurred, but a Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the detonation of the pagers was the "biggest security breach" the group had experienced since the start of the Israel-Hamas in October.
| | KRITENBRINK’S SPLASH OF COLD WATER: Don’t count the U.S. among Indo-Pacific partners that want to see an Asian NATO emerge in the near future, the State Department’s top Asia policy hand said today. Speaking at the Stimson Center, Assistant Secretary of State DANIEL KRITENBRINK said “it’s too early to talk about collective security in that context and more formal institutions that way.” He added that the U.S. is currently focused on “investing in the region’s existing formal architecture and continuing to build this network of formal and informal relationships and then we’ll see where that goes.” The idea of a collective security alliance in Asia modeled off of the transatlantic partnership has gained some traction amid Japan’s ongoing leadership election to replace outgoing Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA. Former Japanese Defense Minister SHIGERU ISHIBA, a contender to be Japan’s next prime minister, has called for an Asian collective security alliance as a way to counter China and reinforce U.S. partnership with allies in the region.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DON’T FORGET ABOUT UKRAINE MONEY: A group of 38 Democrats are issuing a direct appeal to House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to include funding for Ukraine in a stopgap spending deal to keep the government open through the election. In a letter to Johnson obtained exclusively by NatSec Daily, the lawmakers urged Johnson to include foreign assistance under presidential drawdown authority and foreign military financing for Ukraine in such a continuing resolution. “These provisions, along with certainty and stability for our defense and diplomatic programs and workforces, are vital not only for Ukraine’s effort but for U.S. national security,” the lawmakers, led by Reps. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and BILL KEATING (D-Mass.) wrote. The letter is the latest sign of unease among Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill that U.S. funding for Ukraine could become a victim in wider political fights over the CR. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GETTING MORE EUROPEAN IRAN PRESSURE: Two Senate Republicans want Europe to match the strength of U.S. sanctions against Iran, as Tehran and Moscow deepen their military collaborations amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a letter to top European officials shared first with NatSec Daily, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and Sen. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) argue that Europe needs to beef up its efforts against Iran and align its sanctions with those that the U.S. has imposed to date. “Iran poses the greatest direct threat to European and global security that it ever has. This threat will only grow unless it faces real consequences for its aggression,” the senators wrote to E.U. High Representative JOSEP BORRELL, French Foreign Minister STÉPHANE SÉJOURNÉ, British Foreign Secretary DAVID LAMMY and German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK. “Collective U.S.-European pressure should reflect this grim reality.”
| | HILL’S NETANYAHU ANGER: Even as Biden administration officials are being diplomatic in public, their allies in Congress aren’t pulling any punches about the tensions between the U.S. and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU over snags in cease-fire talks. “I think it's really heartbreaking as a lifelong supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship to see Israel's leader making so many decisions that are solely in his own political interests,” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) told NatSec Daily. “So I don't I don't know what the future holds for this relationship.” Murphy added: “It's impossible to negotiate with a brutal terrorist organization like Hamas” but commended the Biden team for “refusing to take no for an answer” on new rounds of negotiations.
| | | | — TIMOTHY SNYDER is joining the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow for democracy. The think tank said today that Snyder, a professor of history at Yale University, will play a key role in the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy including writing on democracy-focused issues and convening roundtables on topics related to the future of democracy. — KEITH SCHOMIG has joined Paul Hastings as a partner in their Washington office. Schomig, who focuses on national security and trade law, was previously at White and Case.
| | — BENIGNO ALARCÓN DEZA, Americas Quarterly: A hegemonic state takes shape in Venezuela — FREDERIC WEHREY and JENNIFER KAVANAGH, Foreign Affairs: The case against Israeli-Saudi normalization — CHARLES LISTER and JOSEPH VOTEL, The Washington Post: As ISIS rebuilds in Syria, the U.S. is making a bewildering call
| | — National Press Club, 10 a.m.: A discussion with the families of seven American hostages in Gaza, part of its "Headliners" series — Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 10 a.m.: Bringing home Americans detained in China — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: The findings and recommendations of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Great power competition in the Indo-Pacific — Council on Foreign Relations, 10:30 a.m.: A Conversation With Foreign Minister YUSUF TUGGAR of Nigeria — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: A book discussion on “Diplomat's Dictionary" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Commercial space for national security: Integration and institutional change — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2:00 p.m.: Russia's imperial identity — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 2:30 p.m.: Foreign threats to elections in 2024 — roles and responsibilities of U.S. tech providers Thanks to our editor, Ben Fox, with whom we cannot break a deadlock in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is working around the clock to fix the impasse.
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